Bonus points if the run was before the actual storm even formed.
Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Crazy Model Runs that Verified
I was bored and went through some threads and convos about forecasting models doing fantasy runs (I still laugh at HWRF Mangkhut) and that made me wonder: ever a time when those "fantasy runs" were actually right? So I'd like y'all to share times when those crazy, way-too-intense/prolific runs that you laughed at on Twitter actually became reality. It doesn't have to be 100% the same as the actual storm, just close enough that you have to do a double take and think "huh, so I guess it wasn't really a fantasy."
Bonus points if the run was before the actual storm even formed.
Unless those times don't exist and fantasy runs have never actually been right before
Bonus points if the run was before the actual storm even formed.
1 likes
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Ida.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3354
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Foxfires wrote:I was bored and went through some threads and convos about forecasting models doing fantasy runs (I still laugh at HWRF Mangkhut) and that made me wonder: ever a time when those "fantasy runs" were actually right? So I'd like y'all to share times when those crazy, way-too-intense/prolific runs that you laughed at on Twitter actually became reality. It doesn't have to be 100% the same as the actual storm, just close enough that you have to do a double take and think "huh, so I guess it wasn't really a fantasy."
Bonus points if the run was before the actual storm even formed.Unless those times don't exist and fantasy runs have never actually been right before
Surigae was by far the one storm I remember the GFS predicting more than 15 days in advance, and it consistently blew up the typhoon to super strength. We all know what happened in reality.
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Dorian gets my vote.
HWRF was the first one to predict 910mb-ish iirc as early as when NHC was still predicting a TS run and I remember how everyone laughed it off as HWRF being HWRF since back then it used to be overly bullish. Well we all know how that ended.
EDIT: Found a link for one of those early runs, predicted 918mb all the way from 994mb.
HWRF was the first one to predict 910mb-ish iirc as early as when NHC was still predicting a TS run and I remember how everyone laughed it off as HWRF being HWRF since back then it used to be overly bullish. Well we all know how that ended.
EDIT: Found a link for one of those early runs, predicted 918mb all the way from 994mb.
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu May 12, 2022 8:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
3 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
If I remember correctly in 2008 the Euro had a run before Ike even formed that had what would end up being Ike making landfall in Galveston.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 7283
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1647
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Not the current GFS
1 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Ok so apparently the GFS managed to predict Rai 2021 before it even formed with a striking amount of accuracy. The time and location specifically are amazingly close to the actual storm, even if the look is off (not sure about the intensity).
https://twitter.com/FansOfStorms/status/1468379457517989894
https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1471335278036099072
And people were definitely making fun of the GFS for this stuff on this site lol:
"GFS fantasy run has a phantom low latitude monster for central philippines after 93W. It looks so funky i think it wont happen."
"The GFS’ WPac major starts developing on Sunday, and has a very similar track, timing, and genesis as Typhoon Bopha in 2012. That doesn’t mean it’ll suddenly blow up into a Cat 5 before landfall; it’s perhaps more likely that the GFS is once again being too aggressive, and this will be a weaker storm that takes longer to consolidate."
"Yeah, a Cat5 in WPAC in December in a -ENSO would be crazy."
While C5 is debatable this is still weirdly ironic.
https://twitter.com/FansOfStorms/status/1468379457517989894
https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1471335278036099072
And people were definitely making fun of the GFS for this stuff on this site lol:
"GFS fantasy run has a phantom low latitude monster for central philippines after 93W. It looks so funky i think it wont happen."
"The GFS’ WPac major starts developing on Sunday, and has a very similar track, timing, and genesis as Typhoon Bopha in 2012. That doesn’t mean it’ll suddenly blow up into a Cat 5 before landfall; it’s perhaps more likely that the GFS is once again being too aggressive, and this will be a weaker storm that takes longer to consolidate."
"Yeah, a Cat5 in WPAC in December in a -ENSO would be crazy."
While C5 is debatable this is still weirdly ironic.
1 likes
- AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3871
- Age: 60
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
If there were a way to retrieve ECM CONUS model data for 2008, I'd show you one particular run that verified quite well about 8 or so days out for TS Fay.
IIRC, it brought Fay northward from the Caribbean across Cuba, turned it NNE/NE through the east side of the peninsula, stalled it a couple hudred miles offshore NEFL, turned it due westward across the north-central penisula and moved it offshore near or a little south of Cedar Key, stalled it again over the NE Gulf, then turned it northward toward a landfall across the pandhandle. I remember briefing the onocoming shift in the afternoon, and we laughed at it.
OOPS.
IIRC, it brought Fay northward from the Caribbean across Cuba, turned it NNE/NE through the east side of the peninsula, stalled it a couple hudred miles offshore NEFL, turned it due westward across the north-central penisula and moved it offshore near or a little south of Cedar Key, stalled it again over the NE Gulf, then turned it northward toward a landfall across the pandhandle. I remember briefing the onocoming shift in the afternoon, and we laughed at it.
OOPS.
7 likes
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8911
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
skyline385 wrote:Dorian gets my vote.
HWRF was the first one to predict 910mb-ish iirc as early as when NHC was still predicting a TS run and I remember how everyone laughed it off as HWRF being HWRF since back then it used to be overly bullish. Well we all know how that ended.
EDIT: Found a link for one of those early runs, predicted 918mb all the way from 994mb.
https://media.giphy.com/media/JWNVBBtIW7rmCou7Il/giphy.gif
The NAM model was also surprisingly accurate in Hurricane Dorian's intensity. It normally overestimates the hurricanes intensity.
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9861
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
If todays 18z GFS verifies a May major hurricane into SFL, it will rank high on this list.
4 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3354
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Blown Away wrote:If todays 18z GFS verifies a May major hurricane into SFL, it will rank high on this list.
It would be an appropriate and ultimate evolution of the "Alex"-quirkiness though. Although I'm assuming if something like that were to actually happen, then Alex would get retired and we would get a new A male name. Not to mention how this storm would be talked about for many years
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
Category5Kaiju wrote:Blown Away wrote:If todays 18z GFS verifies a May major hurricane into SFL, it will rank high on this list.
It would be an appropriate and ultimate evolution of the "Alex"-quirkiness though. Although I'm assuming if something like that were to actually happen, then Alex would get retired and we would get a new A male name. Not to mention how this storm would be talked about for many years
Pretty sure Miami is going to get PTSD for A-named storms if the 18Z verifies
1 likes
Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified
A major that wrecks Havana, SE Florida and New England in May of all months seems very fitting for a storm named Alex.
On a more serious note, I'm pretty sure the GFS had a run for Alberto '18 with an essentially identical path.
On a more serious note, I'm pretty sure the GFS had a run for Alberto '18 with an essentially identical path.
0 likes