Crazy Model Runs that Verified

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Foxfires
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Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#1 Postby Foxfires » Thu May 12, 2022 8:12 pm

I was bored and went through some threads and convos about forecasting models doing fantasy runs (I still laugh at HWRF Mangkhut) and that made me wonder: ever a time when those "fantasy runs" were actually right? So I'd like y'all to share times when those crazy, way-too-intense/prolific runs that you laughed at on Twitter actually became reality. It doesn't have to be 100% the same as the actual storm, just close enough that you have to do a double take and think "huh, so I guess it wasn't really a fantasy."

Bonus points if the run was before the actual storm even formed.

Unless those times don't exist and fantasy runs have never actually been right before
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#2 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 12, 2022 8:17 pm

Ida.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 12, 2022 8:17 pm

Foxfires wrote:I was bored and went through some threads and convos about forecasting models doing fantasy runs (I still laugh at HWRF Mangkhut) and that made me wonder: ever a time when those "fantasy runs" were actually right? So I'd like y'all to share times when those crazy, way-too-intense/prolific runs that you laughed at on Twitter actually became reality. It doesn't have to be 100% the same as the actual storm, just close enough that you have to do a double take and think "huh, so I guess it wasn't really a fantasy."

Bonus points if the run was before the actual storm even formed.

Unless those times don't exist and fantasy runs have never actually been right before


Surigae was by far the one storm I remember the GFS predicting more than 15 days in advance, and it consistently blew up the typhoon to super strength. We all know what happened in reality.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#4 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 12, 2022 8:41 pm

Dorian gets my vote.

HWRF was the first one to predict 910mb-ish iirc as early as when NHC was still predicting a TS run and I remember how everyone laughed it off as HWRF being HWRF since back then it used to be overly bullish. Well we all know how that ended.

EDIT: Found a link for one of those early runs, predicted 918mb all the way from 994mb.

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu May 12, 2022 8:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 12, 2022 8:42 pm

HWRF for Cristina 14.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#6 Postby IcyTundra » Thu May 12, 2022 9:11 pm

If I remember correctly in 2008 the Euro had a run before Ike even formed that had what would end up being Ike making landfall in Galveston.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu May 12, 2022 9:30 pm

Alex 2010
Harvey 2017
Micheal 2018
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#8 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 13, 2022 8:26 am

Not the current GFS :lol:
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#9 Postby Foxfires » Sat May 14, 2022 2:54 am

Ok so apparently the GFS managed to predict Rai 2021 before it even formed with a striking amount of accuracy. The time and location specifically are amazingly close to the actual storm, even if the look is off (not sure about the intensity).

 https://twitter.com/FansOfStorms/status/1468379457517989894




 https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1471335278036099072




And people were definitely making fun of the GFS for this stuff on this site lol:
"GFS fantasy run has a phantom low latitude monster for central philippines after 93W. It looks so funky i think it wont happen."
"The GFS’ WPac major starts developing on Sunday, and has a very similar track, timing, and genesis as Typhoon Bopha in 2012. That doesn’t mean it’ll suddenly blow up into a Cat 5 before landfall; it’s perhaps more likely that the GFS is once again being too aggressive, and this will be a weaker storm that takes longer to consolidate."
"Yeah, a Cat5 in WPAC in December in a -ENSO would be crazy."

While C5 is debatable this is still weirdly ironic.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#10 Postby AJC3 » Sat May 14, 2022 5:24 am

If there were a way to retrieve ECM CONUS model data for 2008, I'd show you one particular run that verified quite well about 8 or so days out for TS Fay.

IIRC, it brought Fay northward from the Caribbean across Cuba, turned it NNE/NE through the east side of the peninsula, stalled it a couple hudred miles offshore NEFL, turned it due westward across the north-central penisula and moved it offshore near or a little south of Cedar Key, stalled it again over the NE Gulf, then turned it northward toward a landfall across the pandhandle. I remember briefing the onocoming shift in the afternoon, and we laughed at it.

OOPS.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#11 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 14, 2022 12:53 pm

skyline385 wrote:Dorian gets my vote.

HWRF was the first one to predict 910mb-ish iirc as early as when NHC was still predicting a TS run and I remember how everyone laughed it off as HWRF being HWRF since back then it used to be overly bullish. Well we all know how that ended.

EDIT: Found a link for one of those early runs, predicted 918mb all the way from 994mb.

https://media.giphy.com/media/JWNVBBtIW7rmCou7Il/giphy.gif


The NAM model was also surprisingly accurate in Hurricane Dorian's intensity. It normally overestimates the hurricanes intensity.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#12 Postby Blown Away » Sat May 14, 2022 7:51 pm

If todays 18z GFS verifies a May major hurricane into SFL, it will rank high on this list.
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#13 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 14, 2022 8:02 pm

Blown Away wrote:If todays 18z GFS verifies a May major hurricane into SFL, it will rank high on this list.


It would be an appropriate and ultimate evolution of the "Alex"-quirkiness though. :D Although I'm assuming if something like that were to actually happen, then Alex would get retired and we would get a new A male name. Not to mention how this storm would be talked about for many years :(
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#14 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 14, 2022 8:10 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Blown Away wrote:If todays 18z GFS verifies a May major hurricane into SFL, it will rank high on this list.


It would be an appropriate and ultimate evolution of the "Alex"-quirkiness though. :D Although I'm assuming if something like that were to actually happen, then Alex would get retired and we would get a new A male name. Not to mention how this storm would be talked about for many years :(


Pretty sure Miami is going to get PTSD for A-named storms if the 18Z verifies :D
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Re: Crazy Model Runs that Verified

#15 Postby Teban54 » Sat May 14, 2022 8:30 pm

A major that wrecks Havana, SE Florida and New England in May of all months seems very fitting for a storm named Alex.

On a more serious note, I'm pretty sure the GFS had a run for Alberto '18 with an essentially identical path.
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