NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

#1 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat May 14, 2022 2:30 am

0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

#2 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat May 14, 2022 4:50 am

One thing about the article that I find interesting is the effect of pollution and tropical cyclones.

Now i have had a theory about why the 2020 hurricane season was so abnormal and why at the models has such a hard time with predictions. Now at the beginning of 2020 we had most of the world in a lockdown as a result places in China and India had bright blue skies for the first time in decades. With all of the factories shut down and people not using cars or planes flying we had a massive reduction in pollution in the atmosphere. This led to more light getting down to the surface instead of been absorb and blocked by the pollution, this in turn meant the oceans absorbed much more heat than normal.

To give you an idea what a big effect COVID had on the climate, a study in to the Asian Brown Cloud that's the name for the cloud of pollution that hand over Asia. The study found that when the cloud was reducing the radiative heating of the ocean by 10% and increasing that radiative heating of the atmosphere by as much as 50-100%. Now with air traffic significantly reduced another factor comes into effect, contrails. A study in to the climate effects of 9/11 found that with all of the planes been grounded in the US the high altitude clouds like contrails was reduced and as a result the temperature increased by a degree. The reduction in particulate and aerosol pollution also increased evaporation of water and the formation of clouds, there has been studies before which showed that pollution like smoke and dust affect the formation of clouds

Asian Brown Cloud study - https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... rown_Cloud
9/11 Climate - https://web.archive.org/web/20160411094 ... Nature.pdf

The reduction of pollution meant in 2020 they was a lot more heat absorbed by the oceans, more evaporation which meant more humidity and more cloud forming, pretty much making it the ideal conditions to fuel the 2020 season along with the La Nina. We ended up with a unique situation that produced some 30 storms.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 16, 2022 12:03 am

I took a look at the 2020 season, and I figure this is how early the storm - and its peak intensity - would have been detectable with technological changes. In other words, these storms would have been known at that time or later. If a storm had its peak intensity at landfall by a weather station in a populated area since the 19th century, it would have been identifiable at least as long as HURDAT goes back to.

TS to beginning: Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
TS to early 20th: Arthur
TS to early Recon: Bertha, Josephine
TS to updated Recon: none
TS to reliable Dvorak: Gonzalo, Omar, Alpha, Theta
TS to modern era: none
TS only in current era: Dolly, Edouard, Rene, Vicky, Wilfred

H to beginning: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
H to early 20th: Gamma
H to early Recon: none
H to updated Recon: none
H to reliable Dvorak: none
H to modern era: Marco, Nana
H only in current era: none

Major hurricanes: Laura (MH to beginning), Sally (MH beginning to at least early Recon), Teddy (MH since early Recon), Delta (MH since early Recon), Epsilon (MH since early Recon), Zeta (MH since modern era), Eta (MH to beginning), Iota (MH to beginning)

If 2020 happened in different eras, the storm counts would have been:

* Beginning of HURDAT (1851-1899): 18/11/4
* Early 20th Century (1900-1943): 19/12/4
* Early Recon (1944-1955): 21/12/7
* Updated Recon/early satellite (1956-1970): 21/12/6
* Gen 2 satellite/reliable Dvorak (1971-1994): 25/12/6
* Modern era (1995-2009): 25/14/7
* Current era (2010 onwards): 30/14/7
6 likes   

Foxfires
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:50 pm

Re: NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

#4 Postby Foxfires » Wed May 18, 2022 12:50 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I took a look at the 2020 season, and I figure this is how early the storm - and its peak intensity - would have been detectable with technological changes. In other words, these storms would have been known at that time or later. If a storm had its peak intensity at landfall by a weather station in a populated area since the 19th century, it would have been identifiable at least as long as HURDAT goes back to.

TS to beginning: Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
TS to early 20th: Arthur
TS to early Recon: Bertha, Josephine
TS to updated Recon: none
TS to reliable Dvorak: Gonzalo, Omar, Alpha, Theta
TS to modern era: none
TS only in current era: Dolly, Edouard, Rene, Vicky, Wilfred

H to beginning: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
H to early 20th: Gamma
H to early Recon: none
H to updated Recon: none
H to reliable Dvorak: none
H to modern era: Marco, Nana
H only in current era: none

Major hurricanes: Laura (MH to beginning), Sally (MH beginning to at least early Recon), Teddy (MH since early Recon), Delta (MH since early Recon), Epsilon (MH since early Recon), Zeta (MH since modern era), Eta (MH to beginning), Iota (MH to beginning)

If 2020 happened in different eras, the storm counts would have been:

* Beginning of HURDAT (1851-1899): 18/11/4
* Early 20th Century (1900-1943): 19/12/4
* Early Recon (1944-1955): 21/12/7
* Updated Recon/early satellite (1956-1970): 21/12/6
* Gen 2 satellite/reliable Dvorak (1971-1994): 25/12/6
* Modern era (1995-2009): 25/14/7
* Current era (2010 onwards): 30/14/7


Wait why would the modern era not record 5 TSs?
And also wasn't Sally a C2?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 18, 2022 11:18 pm

Foxfires wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I took a look at the 2020 season, and I figure this is how early the storm - and its peak intensity - would have been detectable with technological changes. In other words, these storms would have been known at that time or later. If a storm had its peak intensity at landfall by a weather station in a populated area since the 19th century, it would have been identifiable at least as long as HURDAT goes back to.

TS to beginning: Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
TS to early 20th: Arthur
TS to early Recon: Bertha, Josephine
TS to updated Recon: none
TS to reliable Dvorak: Gonzalo, Omar, Alpha, Theta
TS to modern era: none
TS only in current era: Dolly, Edouard, Rene, Vicky, Wilfred

H to beginning: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
H to early 20th: Gamma
H to early Recon: none
H to updated Recon: none
H to reliable Dvorak: none
H to modern era: Marco, Nana
H only in current era: none

Major hurricanes: Laura (MH to beginning), Sally (MH beginning to at least early Recon), Teddy (MH since early Recon), Delta (MH since early Recon), Epsilon (MH since early Recon), Zeta (MH since modern era), Eta (MH to beginning), Iota (MH to beginning)

If 2020 happened in different eras, the storm counts would have been:

* Beginning of HURDAT (1851-1899): 18/11/4
* Early 20th Century (1900-1943): 19/12/4
* Early Recon (1944-1955): 21/12/7
* Updated Recon/early satellite (1956-1970): 21/12/6
* Gen 2 satellite/reliable Dvorak (1971-1994): 25/12/6
* Modern era (1995-2009): 25/14/7
* Current era (2010 onwards): 30/14/7


Wait why would the modern era not record 5 TSs?
And also wasn't Sally a C2?


Dolly, Edouard, Rene, Vicky and Wilfred were only assessed as tropical storms based on ASCAT passes or high-resolution satellite. They all had peaked at T2.0 or a non-consensus T2.0/T2.5 on the Dvorak scale and I believe would have only been assessed as 30 kt tropical depressions. ASCAT has only been around since about 2006 or so.

Sally would likely have been a category 3 with 100 kt winds at landfall in early eras based on the 98 kt ship report, which would not be able to be countered by other data (i.e. aircraft data) until at least 1956 or so when nighttime Recon data was available to provide evidence supporting otherwise. Of the major hurricanes in 2020, the reasoning:

* Laura - In all eras, it would have been a category 4 at peak and landfall. The land pressure data (937 to 944 mb using the Schloemer equation and decay equations, as well as a 946 mb reading in Sulphur, LA) would have supported 120 or 125 kt without Recon or satellite data.

* Teddy - Before Recon, the most likely intensity would have been 90 kt, based on ship data in the high latitude Atlantic, although it is quite possible a rogue ship would have found a low enough pressure - that cannot be assumed. As soon as Recon came along, it would be clear Teddy was a major with 110 to 120 kt winds.

* Delta - Like with Teddy, the most likely intensity without Recon would have been 90 kt, but in this case that would be based on the 972 mb reading in Mexico as well as an estimated intensity of 968 mb based on adjustment from Lafayette, LA (in reality it was 970 mb). Recon would have confirmed a major hurricane, but not until the 1990s would a category 4 intensity be confirmed.

* Epsilon - Before Recon, analyzing for ship data and assumed pressures, a 65 or 70 kt intensity would have likely been assessed. However, all Recon eras would have confirmed a category 3, with 100 or 105 kt.

* Zeta - Not until the WSR-88D era, as well as reliable Recon winds (around 1995), would the 100 kt intensity have been confirmed. In earlier eras, Zeta would have likely been a category 2 with about 90 kt winds, based on a pressure of 968 to 970 mb (which could be assessed based on decay rates from the 972 mb reading in New Orleans given the fast motion).

* Eta - In all eras, it would have been a category 4 at peak and landfall. Data from Puerto Cabezas and utilization of the Schloemer equation supports an intensity of around 120 kt at landfall.

* Iota - In all eras, it would have been a category 4+ at landfall based on the Schloemer equation and decay rates. However, during the period from about 1956 to 1994, it would have likely been kept as a category 5 hurricane. That would have been based on the 920 mb (pre-adjustment) pressure alone, since the winds would not have been reliable, and that reading would likely have resulted in an intensity around 145 kt. That would not have been the case before Recon or in the early Recon era, which would have been highly unlikely to capture the 920 mb reading.
4 likes   

Foxfires
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:50 pm

Re: NOAA article on Hurricanes and climate change.

#6 Postby Foxfires » Thu May 19, 2022 3:06 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I took a look at the 2020 season, and I figure this is how early the storm - and its peak intensity - would have been detectable with technological changes. In other words, these storms would have been known at that time or later. If a storm had its peak intensity at landfall by a weather station in a populated area since the 19th century, it would have been identifiable at least as long as HURDAT goes back to.

TS to beginning: Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
TS to early 20th: Arthur
TS to early Recon: Bertha, Josephine
TS to updated Recon: none
TS to reliable Dvorak: Gonzalo, Omar, Alpha, Theta
TS to modern era: none
TS only in current era: Dolly, Edouard, Rene, Vicky, Wilfred

H to beginning: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota
H to early 20th: Gamma
H to early Recon: none
H to updated Recon: none
H to reliable Dvorak: none
H to modern era: Marco, Nana
H only in current era: none

Major hurricanes: Laura (MH to beginning), Sally (MH beginning to at least early Recon), Teddy (MH since early Recon), Delta (MH since early Recon), Epsilon (MH since early Recon), Zeta (MH since modern era), Eta (MH to beginning), Iota (MH to beginning)

If 2020 happened in different eras, the storm counts would have been:

* Beginning of HURDAT (1851-1899): 18/11/4
* Early 20th Century (1900-1943): 19/12/4
* Early Recon (1944-1955): 21/12/7
* Updated Recon/early satellite (1956-1970): 21/12/6
* Gen 2 satellite/reliable Dvorak (1971-1994): 25/12/6
* Modern era (1995-2009): 25/14/7
* Current era (2010 onwards): 30/14/7


Wait why would the modern era not record 5 TSs?
And also wasn't Sally a C2?


Dolly, Edouard, Rene, Vicky and Wilfred were only assessed as tropical storms based on ASCAT passes or high-resolution satellite. They all had peaked at T2.0 or a non-consensus T2.0/T2.5 on the Dvorak scale and I believe would have only been assessed as 30 kt tropical depressions. ASCAT has only been around since about 2006 or so.

Sally would likely have been a category 3 with 100 kt winds at landfall in early eras based on the 98 kt ship report, which would not be able to be countered by other data (i.e. aircraft data) until at least 1956 or so when nighttime Recon data was available to provide evidence supporting otherwise. Of the major hurricanes in 2020, the reasoning:

* Laura - In all eras, it would have been a category 4 at peak and landfall. The land pressure data (937 to 944 mb using the Schloemer equation and decay equations, as well as a 946 mb reading in Sulphur, LA) would have supported 120 or 125 kt without Recon or satellite data.

* Teddy - Before Recon, the most likely intensity would have been 90 kt, based on ship data in the high latitude Atlantic, although it is quite possible a rogue ship would have found a low enough pressure - that cannot be assumed. As soon as Recon came along, it would be clear Teddy was a major with 110 to 120 kt winds.

* Delta - Like with Teddy, the most likely intensity without Recon would have been 90 kt, but in this case that would be based on the 972 mb reading in Mexico as well as an estimated intensity of 968 mb based on adjustment from Lafayette, LA (in reality it was 970 mb). Recon would have confirmed a major hurricane, but not until the 1990s would a category 4 intensity be confirmed.

* Epsilon - Before Recon, analyzing for ship data and assumed pressures, a 65 or 70 kt intensity would have likely been assessed. However, all Recon eras would have confirmed a category 3, with 100 or 105 kt.

* Zeta - Not until the WSR-88D era, as well as reliable Recon winds (around 1995), would the 100 kt intensity have been confirmed. In earlier eras, Zeta would have likely been a category 2 with about 90 kt winds, based on a pressure of 968 to 970 mb (which could be assessed based on decay rates from the 972 mb reading in New Orleans given the fast motion).

* Eta - In all eras, it would have been a category 4 at peak and landfall. Data from Puerto Cabezas and utilization of the Schloemer equation supports an intensity of around 120 kt at landfall.

* Iota - In all eras, it would have been a category 4+ at landfall based on the Schloemer equation and decay rates. However, during the period from about 1956 to 1994, it would have likely been kept as a category 5 hurricane. That would have been based on the 920 mb (pre-adjustment) pressure alone, since the winds would not have been reliable, and that reading would likely have resulted in an intensity around 145 kt. That would not have been the case before Recon or in the early Recon era, which would have been highly unlikely to capture the 920 mb reading.


Makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 64 guests