2022 Tropical Waves

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #9 Introduced at 06z emerging West Africa

#41 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:32 am

Waves 6-7-8-9 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/10/22:

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N
with axis along 15W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 08W and 20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to
16N with axis along 35W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Microwave satellite
imagery show dry air in the wave environment, which is hindering
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is SE of the Windward Islands extending from 02N
to 15N with axis along 55W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean, S of 15N with axis along 71W,
moving W at 20 kt. There is no deep convection associated with
this wave at the time.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2022 6:18 am

Waves 6-7-8-9 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/11/22:

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N
with axis along 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate
convection is behind the wave axis from 02N to 12N between 06W
and 17W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 05N to 17N with
axis along 39W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. There is no convection
associated with this wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, S of 14N with axis along
62W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers associated with the
wave are affecting the SE Caribbean, including the Windward
Islands.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean S of 15N with axis along
83W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is S of 15N between 75W and 85W.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:32 am

Waves 6-7-8-9 at 12:00 UTC discuccion on 6/12/22:

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to
14N with axis along 31W, moving W at roughly 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 29W and 36W.

A tropical wave is to the E of the Lesser Antilles extending from
06N to 20N with axis along 52W, moving W at roughly 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 49W and
60W.

A tropical wave in the Caribbean extends S of 20N with axis along
72W, moving W at roughly 15 kt. Associated convection is scattered
and moderate over central Hispaniola adjacent waters and numerous
strong inland over NW Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends S of 18N along
84W, which has remained nearly stationary over the last 10 hours.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the
wave is across the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:02 am

Waves 6-7-8-9 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/13/22:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, south of
14N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 10N between 37W and 42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 62W, south of
20N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis affecting portions of eastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 80W, south of
20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection has become much more
organized over the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 20N between 79W and 83W.

A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC
with axis along 88W, south of 18N, moving west at around 5 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis mainly
south of 18N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#45 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:16 am

Waves 7-8-9 at 12:05 UTC on 6/14/22:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, south
of 14N, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 70W,
south of 14N, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is
limited over water, and scattered moderate convection prevails in
Venezuela mainly south of 10N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W,
south of 20N, and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave at this time.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #10 introduced

#46 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:47 am

Wave #10 has been introduced near the West African coast.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:42 am

Waves 8-9-10 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/15/22:

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 25W,
from 15N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers
prevail in the vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 58W,
from 14N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the northern half of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 76W,
from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted across the northern half of the wave.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#48 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:52 am

Waves 8-9-10 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/16/22:

A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 14N, moving W at 20 kt.
Convection is limited near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
66W S of 15N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave extends S into central
Venezuela where scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted. Similar convective activity is near the northern end of the
wave axis. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convection.

A second tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea along 82W S of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is along the wave axis over the SW Caribbean. This convective
activity is affecting the Atlantic coasts of coast of Costa Rica
and western Panama. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is also observed just E of the wave axis from 16N to 18N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:17 pm

Waves 9-10 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 6/17/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 09N between 36W and 45W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 72W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland
over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:56 am

Waves 9-10 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/18/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 41W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 76W and 78W.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2022 5:58 am

Waves 9-10 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/19/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51WW from 16N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 47W and 52W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from 16N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the wave axis north of 13N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:10 am

Waves 9-10 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/20/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N to 11N between 55W and 59W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 22N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 210 nm east of the wave axis north of
16N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:13 pm

Wave #10 discussion at 18:05 UTC discussion on 6/21/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W from 15N southward,
moving westward at around 15 knots. Scattered showers are noted
from 11N to 13N between 60W and 62W.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:32 am

No new waves have been introduced in this 06z surface analysis. Waves 9-10 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/22/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 67W from 18N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
60 nm of the wave axis south of 15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W from 22N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over the SW Gulf W of the wave axis.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #11 introduced

#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:02 am

Wave #11 has been introduced at the 12z surface analysis.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #11 introduced

#56 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:34 pm

A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 17W from the Gambia coast
southward, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 15W and
20W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #12 is introduced

#57 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:55 am

Wave #12 has been introduced on the 12z surface analysis midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and is ahead of wave #11 south of Cabo Verde Islands.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #12 is introduced

#58 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:14 pm

Waves 10-11-12 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 6/23/22:

The axis of a tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N-13N between 20W-30W.

A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis along
42W from 01N-11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Latest scatterometer data
depicts a broad cyclonic circulation in the area and latest
guidance shows cyclonic turning at 700 mb. Satellite imagery
depicts scattered moderate convection within 100 nm on either side
of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 78W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within
30 nm E of the wave axis south of 13N. A large area of moderate
convection is noted W of the wave from 11N-15N between 79W-84W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#59 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:21 am

Waves 10-11-12 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/24/22:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W/28W
from 02N to 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection, in large
clusters, within 360 nm west of the wave axis from 03N to 10N.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
east of the wave from 08N to 10N. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week as this system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic. The disturbance has a medium
chance of development over the next 5 days.


A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W/46W from
02N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is behind the wave along and near the ITCZ to 42W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the
to near 49W, and from 05N to 10N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south
of 17N and across Panama and into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving
westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm west of the wave south of 12N to the
coasts Costa Rica and Panama, and within 60 nm west of the wave
from 13N to 17N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#60 Postby ouragans » Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:11 am

Wave #13 introduced, with 11-12

A new tropical wave has been introduced along 16W and south of
15N based satellite imagery and Hovmoller diagram. The wave is
moving W at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 15N and moving
W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 06N-12N and between 30W and 37W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week as it approaches the Windward Islands.
The disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance over the next 5
days.


Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 15N and
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N-12N and between 45W and 57W.
Enhanced rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands as the
tropical wave passes through the area Sunday and Sunday night.
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