2022 Tropical Waves

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#121 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:10 am

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/x3BX3aR.png


Weak circulation.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#122 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/x3BX3aR.png


Weak circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/Zx0sCL5.gif


As always, thanks for the amazing work you put into tracking all these tropical waves! Here is a timelapse of the tropical waves that were introduced off the coast of Africa (others were introduced later in the Atlantic, but have excluded those for clarity here). We can see how the mean tropical wave axis position has increased with latitude over the months, which should correlate in a decrease in activity in the EPAC (as the models are starting to show). This permits development in the Atlantic once the background state becomes more conducive.

Image
5 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#123 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:48 pm

Wave 24 was introduced at 12z just off African Coast.

Image

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just offshore Africa along
19W, from 21N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near
the tropical wave is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with the tropical wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is just west of Jamaica along 79W, from
19N southward to across eastern Panama and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 20 kt. The tropical wave
passage was captured on the 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding in
Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from the coast of Panama north to 13N between the coast of
Colombia and 79W.

A tropical wave is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W,
from 19N southward to across Guatemala, moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
This tropical wave was evidenced by the 1200 UTC Upper Air
Sounding from Belize City. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the W Caribbean, from 10N to 18N west of 79W, including inland
over Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Additional scattered
moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, as well as over the Yucatan Peninsula and coastal
regions of Belize.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave 24 has been introduced

#124 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:02 pm

I this the one, or the setup for the next one? :)
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#125 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:23 pm

USTropics wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/x3BX3aR.png


Weak circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/Zx0sCL5.gif


As always, thanks for the amazing work you put into tracking all these tropical waves! Here is a timelapse of the tropical waves that were introduced off the coast of Africa (others were introduced later in the Atlantic, but have excluded those for clarity here). We can see how the mean tropical wave axis position has increased with latitude over the months, which should correlate in a decrease in activity in the EPAC (as the models are starting to show). This permits development in the Atlantic once the background state becomes more conducive.

https://www.gifmaker.net/src/8834b6cb-17ad-4c5f-9652-c770ba23498e/default.gif


Can already observe quite the difference in surface pressures between the two basins.

Image

EPac can't seem to buy a 1012mb isobar if you paid it to. Meanwhile in the cool SST ridden MJO-suppressed Atlantic..........

Read between the lines, folks and enjoy the few weeks of quiet we have left.
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#126 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:19 am

Waves 22-23-24 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/23/22.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 20W, moving
westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 13N to 18N between 17W and 22W, and from 03N to
14N between 21W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 47W,
moving westward at 5-10 knots. There is no convection associated
with this wave as it continues to be embedded in the dry
environment of the Saharan Air Layer.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 80W, moving
westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are
ahead of the wave and across the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore
waters.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#127 Postby zzh » Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:51 am

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#128 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:31 pm



Guess it’s just me but this kind of surface organization in mid July just off Cape Verde seems a little alarming
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#129 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:25 am

Waves 22-23-24 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/24/22.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 26W,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 12N between 17W and 22W, and from 03N
to 14N between 25W and 34W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 19N with axis near 52W,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. There is no convection associated
with this wave as it continues to be embedded in the dry
environment of the Saharan Air Layer.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 84W, moving
westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is across
Cuba, Jamaica and the Yucatan channel offshore waters.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#130 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:26 am

Waves 22-23-24 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/25/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 33W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby
precipitation is related to the interaction of the wave with the
monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along
65W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the
wave mainly N of 15N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W,
from 20N southward, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave's axis.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #25 has been introduced emerging West Africa

#131 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:04 pm

Wave #25 is introduced at 00z surface analysis that is on the coast of West Africa.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #25 has been introduced emerging West Africa

#132 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:22 pm

There's no denying that this year has been rather robust with exiting African waves; definitely, definitely not like 2013 where waves were struggling to stay convective over the MDR and simply dried up upon leaving land :D
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#133 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:09 am

Waves 23-24-25 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/26/22.

A tropical wave has extends its axis along 17W and S of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the wave from 05N to 15N and E of 27W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W and S of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
tropical wave as it is embedded in a dry Saharan airmass.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W and
south of 21N, moving W near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring across the northern portion of the wave
mainly N of 17N affecting western Cuba.


Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#134 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:56 am

Waves 23-24-25 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/27/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W and S of
24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of
significant convection with this feature at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W and S of
18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is also embedded in the
dry and dusty Saharan airmass previously mentioned inhibiting
significant convection.

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W and S of 20N, moving W
near 10-15 kt. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft
support scattered moderate convection S of 20N and W of 86W.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #25 has been introduced emerging West Africa

#135 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:38 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:There's no denying that this year has been rather robust with exiting African waves; definitely, definitely not like 2013 where waves were struggling to stay convective over the MDR and simply dried up upon leaving land :D
Wait until mid august as wxman57 pointed out recently, too much hostility in the MDR for now and that isn't changing this week or next, at least. If the weenies want to get excited about a GFS run at 240h and beyond, have at it.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#136 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:08 am

Waves 24-25 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/28/22.

A tropical wave has its axis along 34W and S of 21N, moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 03N to 11N
between 28W and 42W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 49W and S of 21N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. A surface trough is N of the wave and extends
from 28N48W to 23N49W. Shower activity is noted near the trough,
while scattered showers are across the southern portion of the
wave mainly S of 08N. This wave is embedded in the dry and dusty
Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting significant convection at
this time. Computer model shows moisture associated with this
tropical wave reaching the Leeward Islands by Fri.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#137 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:11 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#138 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:50 am

:D Should be our next invest in my opinion
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #26 introduced

#139 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:00 pm

Wave #26 has been introduced on the 00z surface analysis near the coast of West Africa.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#140 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:02 am

Waves 24-25-26 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/29/22.

A tropical wave is along 19W, south of 20N based on satellite
imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic data. The wave is
moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near
the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04N to 06N between
45W and 47W. The northern portion is surrounded by a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W,
south of 22N and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 55W and 58W.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NotSparta and 46 guests