2022 Tropical Waves

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#141 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:48 pm

Waves 25 and 26 are showing signs of development. A 3 hour loop using GOES-16 Snow/Ice band to see movement to low levels.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#142 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:10 am

Waves 24-25-26 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/30/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south
of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W, south of
22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W, south
of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are evident within 60 nm
of the axis north of 15N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #27 introduced near African Coast

#143 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:19 am

Wave 27 has been introduced on the 06z surface analysis just off the coast. Below is the 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/31/22 of waves 24-25-26-27.

A tropical wave was added to the analysis along the coast of
Senegal at 17W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is evident along the wave axis from 12N to
14N.


An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W, south of 21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
wave as it remains embedded within in a dry and dusty Saharan
airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of
22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 11N to 13N and between 60W and 63W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south
of 22N, extending across Hispaniola and into NE Colombia. The
wave is moving W at 20 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms
are noted along this tropical wave.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#144 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:35 am

Waves 24-25-26-27 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/1/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south
of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 11N
to 13N and between 21W and 24W. The northern portion of the wave
is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 05N
to 08N between 38W and 43W. The northern portion of the wave is
embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W,
south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. N significant convection is
evident near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, south
of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident
near the wave axis.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#145 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:02 am

Waves 25-26-27 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/2/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found from 10N to 12N between 25W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 09N to 10N between 45W and 47W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends from southeast Haiti to
northeast Colombia, and moving is west around 10 kt. No
significant convection is evident near this tropical wave.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #28 introduced near West African Coast

#146 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:14 am

Wave #28 has been introduced near the West African Coast.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #28 introduced near West African Coast

#147 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:00 am

Waves 25-26-27-28 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/3/22.

A newly analyzed tropical wave is along 17W south of 23N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near the coast
Guinea-Bissau.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
seen from 09N to 11N between 49W and 52W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 18N southward
through eastern Honduras and Nicaragua to Costa Rica and into the
East Pacific, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is evident near this tropical wave.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#148 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:20 am

Waves 26-27-28 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/4/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W/21W
from 05N to 22N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from
08N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from
04N to 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is concentrated along and near the monsoon trough
between 34W-40W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south 21N
to inland Suriname near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
07N to 12N between 50W-58W.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#149 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:22 am

Waves 26-27-28 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/5/22. Looks like wave #29 will be introduced later today.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 27W from 05N
to 22N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
increasing near the southern portion of the wave within 180 nm
west and 120 nm east of the wave axis from 07N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 04N
to 21N moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to 09N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 64W from
04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 20 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave. Only isolated quick westward
moving showers are north of 14N and east of 68W.

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along and
offshore the coast Africa from 08N to 14N between 14W-17W. This
activity precedes the next tropical wave that will likely emerge
off the African coast today


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #29 emerging West Africa has been introduced

#150 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:19 am

Wave #29 has been introduced at 12z surface analysis emerging West Africa.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #29 emerging West Africa has been introduced

#151 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:35 pm

Wave #29 at 18:05 UTC discussion.

A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave has just emerged
from the coast of Africa. The tropical wave is along 17W, from 20N
southward, and likely moving W at 10-15 kt based on model analyzed
700 mb wind speeds. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
16N east of 21W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#152 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:06 am

Waves 26-27-28-29 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/6/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from
06N to 21N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to
14N. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm west
of the wave from 13N to 16N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 06N
to 22N moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection is limited with
this wave as only scattered moderate convection is seen within
120 nm east of the wave from 07N to 10N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 05N
to 21N moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are on either side of this wave from 13N to 16N
between 52W-60W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 72W from
Hispaniola southward into Venezuela. It is moving westward near
20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the southern
coast of Hispaniola.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #30 introduced / The 0/40 one

#153 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:15 am

The wave NHC has been mentioning has been officially introduced.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #30 introduced / The 0/40 one

#154 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:26 am

Waves 26-27-28-29-30 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/7/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical has partially emerged offshore
Africa. It has its axis along 16W from 05N to 20N. It is moving
westward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery shows clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection mainly ahead
of the wave from 08N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

Another far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W
from 06N to 21N moving westward at 15 kt. Small clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection have recently
developed within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 06N
to 22N moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is moving a through
a very stable surrounding atmospheric environment. Only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm east of the wave
from 06N to 10N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 64W
from 05N to 21N. It is moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection behind this wave has decreased in coverage
during the past few hours. Satellite imagery shows the convection
bounded from 13N to 16N and between 55W and 62W. This convection
is capable of bringing localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds to
sections of the central Lesser Antilles through the rest of the
morning. Rough seas can result from the gusty winds. In addition,
scattered moderate convection is developing ahead of the wave from
13N to 14N between 65W-68W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 80W from
05N to 19N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is quickly developing in the far southwestern Caribbean
ahead of the wave from 10N to 13N between 80W-83W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 15N and west of
the wave.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#155 Postby ouragans » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:58 am

Wave 26 moves to EPAC.
Waves 27-28-29 at 12z
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
04N to 21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to 13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 03N
to 21N moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted within 180 nm east of the wave from
09N to 12N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W from 03N
to 21N moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is underneath
an upper-level trough. This feature is helping to sustain an area
of scattered moderate convection that trails the wave from 14N to
18N between 69W-72W.

The previous western Caribbean tropical wave that was along 85W
is now being described in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#156 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:15 am

Waves 27-28-29-30 at 12z.

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W, extending from 04N to 19N and
moving westward about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 16N between 24W and 41W. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend.

A tropical wave is along 48W, extending from 04N to 20N, and moving
west about 15 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 61W, extending S of 19N, and moving
westward at 15-20 knots. There is no convection associated with
this wave.

A tropical wave is along 84W, extending S of 20N, and moving
westward at 15 knots. Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are
occuring across the NW Caribbean.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#157 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:35 pm

Waves 28-29-30 at 00:05 UTC discussioon on 8/11/22.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 21N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 38W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 545, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No significant convection is
noted with the wave at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No significant convection is
noted with the wave at this time.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#158 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:35 am

Waves 28-29-30 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/12/22.

The axis of a tropical wave is across the central Atlantic along
46/47W from 03N-23N, moving westward at 20 kt. A large envelope
of moist air is seen in Precipitable Water imagery between 39W
and 47W, in association with the tropical wave. A large area of
Saharan Air precedes the wave axis, between 48W and 57W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm E of
the wave axis from 09.5N to 15.5N, and from 09N to 12N between 46W
and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 58W from 20N southward to
the Guyana, moving westward at 15 kt. The portion of the wave
north of 12N is currently enveloped in an area of westward moving
Saharan dust. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10.5N to
12.5N between 53W and 58W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from
central Hispaniola southward to western Venezuela, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
15.5N to 18N between 67W and 72W.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #31 introduced at 12z near African Coast

#159 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:08 am

Wave #31 has been introduced just off the west african coast.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #31 introduced at 12z near African Coast

#160 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:53 pm

Wave just introduced 31 with the text from 18:05 UTC discussion:

The next tropical wave has entered the Atlantic Ocean. The
tropical wave is along 18W, from 20N southward, with an estimated
westward motion of 10-15 kt based on 700 mb wind speeds. 1010 mb
low pressure is along the wave axis near 13N18W. Scatterometer
data from this morning depicts moderate to fresh winds in the
vicinity of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced
by the Monsoon Trough, is west of the wave axis from 08N to 11N
between 18W and 25W.
.
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