2022 Tropical Waves

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/12/22.

A tropical wave over west-central Africa is approaching the
coastline of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Coupling with
convergent monsoonal winds, numerous heavy showers are seen from
03N to 10N between these coastlines and 20W. This wave is going
to exit into the Atlantic Ocean later this morning or afternoon.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from west of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near
the southern Cabo Verde Islands from 05N to 09N between 28W and
32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found from 05N to 10N between 46W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, and moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are
found over central Venezuela.

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46 at 00:00 UTC discussion on 10/14/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis from
17N22W to 1010 mb low near 08N22W to 03N22W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-08N between 19W-24W. The wave is
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Environmental conditions appear to
be marginally favorable for some slow development of this system,
as it moves westward to west- northwestward, 5 to 10 kt in the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, through early next week.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W, from
16N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted across the northern portion of the wave mainly N of
13N.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along
55W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is noted near the wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
the southern portion of the wave, which currently extends across
NE Colombia.

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/14/22.

A tropical wave extends along 25W from 02N to 16N moving west at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 13N,
between 20W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some gradual development during the next few days
while the system moves westward and then west-northwestward.
However, the disturbance is expected to move into a less favorable
area of stronger upper-level winds by early next week. There is
currently a low probability of formation through both 48 hours and
5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 39W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at
10 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

A tropical wave extends along 50W, from 04N to 19N, moving W at 5
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 20N,
between 42W and 52W.

A tropical wave extends along 74W and S of 18N into NW Colombia,
moving W at 5 kts. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the wave is in the central Caribbean between 72W and 80W.

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/15/22.

A tropical wave extends along 30W, from 02N to 13N, moving west
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between
23W and 37W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical
cyclone formation through both 48 hours and 5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 44W from 04N to 16N, moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 14N,
between 38W and 45W.

A tropical wave extends along 52W, from 05N to 18N, moving west
at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to
10N, between 53W and 60W.

A tropical wave extends along 80W, from 09N to 19N, moving west
at 5 kt. Isolated convection over NE Honduras and Jamaica offshore
waters.

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/16/22.

A tropical wave extends along 33W, from 02N to 13N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 05N to 12N, between 27W and 40W.

A tropical wave extends along 49W, from 04N to 18N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to
23N, between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave extends along 59W, from 05N to 18N, moving west
at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this
wave.

A tropical wave extends along 86W/87W, south of 20N. Scattered
showers are in the Gulf of Honduras offshore waters.

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/17/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
02N to 13N moving westward at 5-10 kt. A large area of numerous
moderate to isolated convection is seen from 07N to 15N between
28W-32W and from 06N to 11N between 32W-40W. An overnight ASCAT
data pass revealed fresh to strong southwest winds south of the
where the wave axis crosses the monsoon trough to near 06N. These
winds appear to have been enhanced by the gradient produced by the
ongoing convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 03N
to 17N moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and within 240 nm east of the wave.
Similar activity is near the northern part of the wave due to
mainly a small upper-level low that is located near 19N52W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W from
03N to 18N moving westward around 10 kt. No significant
convection is occurring with this wave.

A central American tropical wave is along 91W south of 20N. It is
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection, in clusters, is over southeastern Mexico, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Belize and western Honduras. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are over the western part of Nicaragua.

[cycloneye]

Wave 47 has been introduced near African coast at 00:00 UTC discussion.

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from
16N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 16W and 21W.

[cycloneye]

Waves 43-44-45-46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/18/22.

The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W
from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave
is surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Clusters
of increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are
seen within 180 nm west of the wave from 03N to 11N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from
04N to 12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 03N
to 19N moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center
is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N36W. This wave is also
surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Increasing
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 19N
between 30W-37W. An overnight ASCAT data pass highlighted fresh
to strong east to southeast winds within about 180 nm east of this
wave from 13N to 19N. An overnight altimeter data pass indicated
seas of 8-9 ft in the vicinity the wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 03N
to 18N. It is slowly moving westward. No significant convection
is noted with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from 05N
to 17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1008 mb low
pressure center is analyzed along the wave near 11N77W. This is
where the eastern Pacific monsoon trough intersects the wave.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 12N
between 74W-79W.

The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave protrudes
into the western Bay of Campeche along 96W and north to 21N.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing
over southeastern Mexico and the southern section of the Bay
of Campeche.

[cycloneye]

Waves 44-45-46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/19/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along reached
28W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave
is surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Increasing
scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 03N to 12N between 25W-33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 05N
to 22N, with weak low pressure of 1013 mb near 18N42W. Satellite
imagery shows an area of numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection located to the northeast of the wave and low pressure
from 18N to 25N between 34W-42W. An ASCAT pass from last night
revealed fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of the wave
and low to 35W. Nearby Altimeter data indicated wave heights of
8-9 ft.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 05N
to 18N. Its is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated small showers
and thunderstorms are from 10N to 16N between the wave and 50W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south
of 17N to the eastern Pacific Ocean near 04N. It is moving westward
at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

[cycloneye]

Waves 44-45-46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/20/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from
04N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection from 02N to 10N between 31W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N46W to 16N45W to
10N44W. It is moving westward from 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm east of the
wave from 18N to 23N. Scattered moderate is east of the wave
within 30 nm of 17N43W. An overnight ASCAT pass revealed fresh
to strong east to southeast winds east of the wave from 19N to
23N. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-9 ft range.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 04N
to 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are from 13N to 18N between 53W-57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W south of 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
western Honduras.

[cycloneye]

Waves 44-45-46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/21/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 18N southward.
The wave is moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
clusters of convection are from 07N to 16.5N between 35W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 21N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 20.5N to 23N between 46W and 50W. A deep
layered trough to the north of this wave along 30N has induced a
surface trough from 20N 48W to 1012 mb low pressure near 30.5N
38.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from northern sections of
Venezuela to 28N between 53W and 70W. This upper pattern is
limiting convection near the wave axis. Scattered moderate
convection is located well east of the wave axis from 10N to 26N
between 53W and 58W.

[cycloneye]

Waves 45-46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/22/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Widespread convection prevails about the
monsoon trof between this wave and Africa. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 15.5N between
35W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 23N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. This wave is interacting with a deep
layered upper trough between 40W and 65W, which is amplifying the
wave axis toward the NNE. Satellite imagery suggests a 1010 mb surface
low is along the wave near 19.5N 54W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 19N to 25N between 46W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, from 17N southward,
moving W 10 knots. The deep layered upper trough to the NE of this
wave is producing stable atmospheric conditions near the wave and
limiting convection. No significant convection is currently
occurring near this wave.

[cycloneye]

Waves 45-46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/23/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06.5N to 15.5N between 18N southward between
44W and 49W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 24N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. This wave continues to interact with a
vigorous middle to upper level trough to its north, which is
amplifying the wave northward of 20N. Isolated clusters of
moderate convection are noted from 18.5N to 22.5N between 50W and
59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
45W and 70W and is producing generally stable upper level
conditions across the central and eastern Caribbean. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to coastal
portions of Venezuela and Colombia between 68W and 73W. Clusters
of moderate to strong convection are occurring across interior
Venezuela N of 09.5N between 68.5W and Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela.

[cycloneye]

Waves 46-47 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/24/22.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Strong upper level westerly wind shear
is displacing the scattered moderate isolated strong convection
mainly to the east of the trough axis, extending from 05.5N to 12N
and between 45W and 52W. Widely scattered moderate convection
dots the waters W of the wave axis, from 08N to 13N between 52W
and 55W. This wave is expected to reach 56W-57W by this evening.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 73W,
south of 19N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection associated mainly with the SW Caribbean monsoon
trough is located S of 14N between 73W and 84W. Deep layered upper
level troughing is expected to develop N to S across the central
Caribbean in the next few days, and will absorb this wave in the
vicinity of 75W.

[cycloneye]

Wave 48 has been introduced at 00:00 UTC.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from 03N
to 15N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of about 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm east of the wave axis from 05N to 08N.

[cycloneye]

Waves 46-47-48 at 12:00 UTC discussion on 10/25/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W/36W from
03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the wave, from
04.5N-11N between 30W-39W. This appears to be a low amplitude wave
and will initiate active convection along the ITCZ during the
next few days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned westward,
to along 59W, from 05N to 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N-20N
between 50W-57W. Similar convective activity is from 09N-19N
between 54W-60W. Recent scatterometer data indicated a surface
trough associated with this wave, and an area of fresh to strong
E to SE winds near the northern end of the wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W/76W
extending from eastern Cuba to northern Colombia. It is drifting
westward. The wave, combined with an upper-level trough, is
helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms from
northwest Colombia northward to Hispaniola. A deep layered
extending from the adjacent Atlantic along 75W extends SW into the
western Caribbean and is expected to absorb this wave during the
next 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Waves 47-48 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/26/22.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 03N
to 15N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is near the wave axis mainly from 08N
to 13N between 37W and 42W.

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 65W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Overnight ASCAT data
showed a sharp surface trough associated with the wave. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side
of the wave axis, and has begun to increase to the NW of the wave
across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Waves 47-48 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/27/22.

A tropical wave has its axis along 44W-45W from 05N to 15N moving
W near 15 kt.The wave is tilted NNE to SSW. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring across northern portions of the
wave, from 11N-16N between 41W and 46W. night scatterometer data
showed moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are on either side
of the wave axis between 12N and 17N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from 09N to 19N,
moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is interacting with a deep-layered
trough along 69W-70W, resulting in scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection from 10N to 14.5N between 62W and
67.5W, and from 16N northward across Puerto Rico and into the
adjacent Atlantic between 66W and 68W. The interaction of these
features is expected to lead to a merger along about 70W on Fri.

[cycloneye]

Waves 48-49 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 10/28/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 01N to
10N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 09N, between 24W to 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 08N to
19N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring
at this time.

[cycloneye]

Waves 48-49 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/29/22.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 1o 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 07N between 33W to 36W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Much drier air at low to mid levels
are hindering significant convection near this feature.