2022 Tropical Waves

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#201 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:50 pm

The one that will become Wave #40 is having intense convective activity right now over Western Africa.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#202 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The one that will become Wave #40 is having intense convective activity right now over Western Africa.


Is this the one projected to leave Africa in ~24 hours? If so, this appears to be headed pretty far west in the MDR before starting to recurve per the Euro/CMC suites at least. If you follow the 850 mb vorticity map of the 12Z Euro, you can actually see a reflection of this at the surface as it comes across the MDR and later ends the run as the NE portion of a weak Bahamas low!

So, we may end up having this one to watch closely in the MDR starting tomorrow night.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#203 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:40 am

Iceresistance wrote:The one that will become Wave #40 is having intense convective activity right now over Western Africa.


While we're concentrating on Invest 96L for good reason, folks should probably at least keep one eye on this AEW that's coming off Africa in ~12 hours. It has been quite active over W Africa as Iceresistance noted. Several models (Euro, ICON, CMC) are now taking this at least to 50W in the MDR. The last 3 Euro runs haven taken it to at least the Lesser Antilles. The latest Euro takes this to just SW of PR as a TS moving WNW at 240 hours (9/24).
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#204 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:01 am

Waves 37-38-39 at 12:05 UTC on 9/14/22.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic: A strong tropical wave extends along
48W/49W from 04N to 21N, moving west at 12 kt. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is analyzed near 16N48W along this wave. Numerous
moderate convection is observed from 13N to 20N between 44W and
50W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 8-11 ft seas are observed
along the northern half of this wave. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conductive, some additional
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days. This system is expected
to move westward to west- northwestward over the tropical
Atlantic and it is expected to be near the Leeward Islands on
Friday. The current outlook assigns a medium chance of development
through 48 hours and a medium chance through 5 days.
Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 28W, just west of
the Cabo Verde Islands, from 04N to 21N, moving west at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
from 09N to 16N, between 27W and 31W. Moderate to fresh winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found mainly around the northern half of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W, from over Colombia
near 04N to eastern Cuba at 21N, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered weak convection is observed through the Windward
Passage, southeast of Jamaica, and from 07N to 13N between 71W and
77W including over portions of northern Colombia and NW
Venezuela.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#205 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:31 pm

This was yesterday, but Andy Hazelton is having too much fun. :lol:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569857072187187201


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#206 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:33 pm

The 12Z Euro is the 4th in a row that has a persistent surface low from the AEW just now leaving Africa. The prior three all hit the Lesser Antilles. This run has it at 14N, 52W, at 144 hours moving WNW to W:

Image
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#207 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:58 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This was yesterday, but Andy Hazelton is having too much fun. :lol:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569857072187187201?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet



There's something strangely adorable about this. :)
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#208 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:27 pm

Wave #40 has been introduced and is about to emerge from West Africa.

Image
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#209 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wave #40 has been introduced and is about to emerge from West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/MSqFXz0.jpg

I think this is the wave the Euro keeps at a low latitude and gets into the Caribbean next week. The ICON develops it but sends it OTS.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#210 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:06 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wave #40 has been introduced and is about to emerge from West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/MSqFXz0.jpg

I think this is the wave the Euro keeps at a low latitude and gets into the Caribbean next week. The ICON develops it but sends it OTS.


It is. The last 4 Euro runs have taken this at least to the Lesser Antilles. The 12Z EPS has many members developing this with a few becoming MHs north of the GAs and weaker ones getting into the Caribbean followed by some of those then getting into the Gulf. The last several ICONS have had TCG with this. The 12Z JMA has it as a very weak low just E of the LAs. And now the 12Z UKMET has it forming at 138:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.9N 48.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2022 144 13.2N 49.2W 1009 30

I am expecting this to be introduced on the TWO within a couple of days and it has the makings of being the next Invest.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#211 Postby NotSparta » Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:19 pm

Looks like that tries to get going as it heads into the Caribbean but gets blasted by N and E shear from TD 7
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#212 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:52 am

Wave #40.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 15W, from 02N to
15N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 12N, between 12W and 27W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#213 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:08 am

It appears to my eyes per satellite loops that there is some kind of circulation at 11N, 23W, moving west. Anyone else see this?
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#214 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:12 pm

Waves 38-39-40 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 9/15/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from just south of
Dakar at 14N southward, and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 18W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 20N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 16N to 19N between 30W and 37W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from southern Cuba
southward to Panama, and moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from western Cuba
southward to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#215 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:41 pm

LarryWx wrote:It appears to my eyes per satellite loops that there is some kind of circulation at 11N, 23W, moving west. Anyone else see this?


This only waned a little after I last posted about this near midday. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern and is now centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#216 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:06 am

Waves 39-40 at 12:05 UTC on 9/16/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from
02N to 15N moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated convection is ahead of the wave from 06N to 14N between
the wave and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 05N
to 20N moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of the wave from 16N
to 20N. Some slow development of this system is possible late
this weekend and early next week while it moves northwestward to
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic. The current
outlook assigns a low probability of tropical cyclone formation
through both 48 hours and 5 days.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#217 Postby ouragans » Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:56 am

Waves 39-40 at 12:05 UTC on 9/17/22

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
16N32W to 11N33W to 04N32W. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are evident from 09N to
13N between the wave axis and 36W. The southern part of this
convective activity appears to be weakening.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 08N
to 25N, moving westward about 15 kt. An area of disorganized
scattered moderate is north and northeast of the northern part of
the wave from 19N to 26N between 40W-45W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along the wave axis within 60 nm of 18N45W.
Overnight ASCAT data revealed fresh to strong easterly winds from
17N to 23N between 40W-47W. Wave heights with these winds are in
the 5-7 ft range. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
slowly northwestward to northward. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation through five days.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#218 Postby ouragans » Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:10 am

Waves 39-40 at 12:05 UTC on 9/18/22

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from
03N to 16N moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and
and a few thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave
axis from 10N to 12N.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
near 26N46W to 19N50W to 11N51W. It has an estimated westward
motion of 15 kt. An area of scattered moderate convection is
displaced to its north and northeast due to strong upper-level
southeast to south winds. This activity is present from 24N
to 30N and between 43W-48W. A small area of scattered showers
and thunderstorms is along and within 150 nm east of the wave
from 19N to 21N. Overnight ASCAT data captured moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds across the wave axis. Wave heights with
these winds are 5-7 ft. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the early or middle part of this week, while it
moves generally northward, remaining over the central Subtropical
Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation through five days.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#219 Postby ouragans » Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:12 am

Waves 39-40 at 12:05 UTC on 9/19/22

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its along 45W from 04N to 15N
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are noted from 09N to 14N between 42W-50W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W
from 06N to 20N. It is moving westward at about 10-15 kt. A
surface trough extends from just north of the wave to 25N53W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm either
side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#220 Postby ouragans » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:38 am

Waves 39-40 at 12:05 UTC on 9/20/22

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 04N to 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Satellite imagery showsincreasing clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection ahead of the wave from 08N to 11N between the wave and 59W. An overnight ASCAT data pass revealed fresh to strong southeast to
south winds 180 nm east of the wave from 07N to 11N. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean
sea. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low, but medium within the next 5 days.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward about 15 kt. A surface trough extends north-northeast of the wave from 20N60W to 26N56W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60-90 nm either side of the wave south of 15N. These showers and thunderstorms will affect the Windward Islands this morning during the next several hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the trough from 22N-29N between 49-56W.
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