2022 Tropical Waves

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#181 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:09 am

Waves 31-32-33-34 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/26/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 24W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N
between 24W and 28W. Environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system through early next week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at
15 to 20 mph, and There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next five days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 47W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. There is no
significant deep convection associated to this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 70W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is no
significant deep convection associated to this tropical wave.

The northern extent of a tropical wave has its axis near 94W from
21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf
in association to this wave.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#182 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:01 am

Waves 32-33-34 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/27/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 33W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 31W and 40W. Some
gradual development of the system is possible during the early
and middle parts of next week while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next
five days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 52W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant
deep convection in the vicinity of this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 75W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 60 nm west of the wave axis south of 12N.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#183 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 28, 2022 5:51 am

Waves 32-33-34 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/28/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 42W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Low pressure has
developed along the wave near 14N42W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 40W and 48W.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive
for gradual development of the system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of the week while it moves west-
northwestward at around 10 kt toward the waters east of the
Leeward Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 56W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant
deep convection in the vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 76W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. There is limited convection
near this wave.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#184 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:34 am

Waves 33-34-35 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/29/22.

A tropical wave is nearing the coast of western Africa near
15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Low
pressure is along the wave axis near 14.5N15.5W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N
between 12W and 20W. Some gradual development of the system is
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across
the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There is currently a low
probability of tropical cyclone development within the next 5
days.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 62W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Isolated convection is
in the vicinity of this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 82WW, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 21N between 77W
and 81W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#185 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:14 am

Waves 33-34-35 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/30/22.

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure has
its axis just off the west coast of Africa near 18W from 02N-18N,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 17W and 30W. Some
gradual development is possible over the next few days while it
moves generally westward to west-northwestward. The system could
become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern
Atlantic waters during the next few days. By late this week, the
disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters and further
development is not likely after that time. There is a low chance
of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday.

A tropical wave has its axis in the central Caribbean Sea near
71W from 21N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An upper-
level low centered near the Windward Passage is enhancing
scattered moderate convection west of the wave axis from 17N-21N
between 71W-77W, including over Haiti and the Windward Passage.
Additional convection is noted over the Gulf of Venezuela and
inland near the Venezuela/Colombia border.

A tropical wave has its axis in the NW Caribbean Sea near 87W
from 21N southward to across Honduras and western Nicaragua,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is mostly inland over Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and
El Salvador.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#186 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2022 9:05 am

Waves 33-34-35-36 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 8/31/22.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1007 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N50W, is along a
tropical wave, moving W at around 5 kt. This area is producing a
large area of scattered moderate and isolates strong convection
from 08N to 18N between 47W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds are
noted in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are peaking
near 10 ft north of the low. Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast
to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high
chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 19W/20W,
south of 19N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 10N to 20N and E of 24W. Some
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic
during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of development
in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for additional information.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Limited convection is near the wave.

A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 92W,
south of 21N, across SE Mexico, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted over the SW Gulf and across southern Mexico
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#187 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 5:31 am

Waves 34-35 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/1/22.

A NW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of
21N, drifting W, very slowly at 5 kt or less. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found over the NW Caribbean.
The wave is also helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over
Central America.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 95W, south of
21N, across southern Mexico and into the eastern Pacific Ocean,
moving W around 5 kt. Nearby convection is confined to land and
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#188 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:15 am

Waves 35-36 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/2/22.

East of the Leeward Islands: A broad area of low pressure of 1008
mb is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 17N56W. Although
environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any
additional development of the system over the next few days would
lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in that area
should monitor the progress of the system. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.


A tropical wave has its axis along 27W, from 08N to 23N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. A low pressure of 1006 mb is along the wave near
19N. This system is moving into an area of less favorable
environmental conditions, and significant development is not
anticipated.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#189 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:15 pm

Waves 36-37 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 9/3/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to
the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 17N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 08N to 17N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 24N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 20.5N. A surface trough
extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center, northwestward, to
27N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N northward between 20W and 42W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#190 Postby ouragans » Sun Sep 04, 2022 6:20 am

Wave 36 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/4/22

A tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N to 26N, moving westward at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is along the wave near 22.0N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 26Nz between 31W and 38W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#191 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2022 6:34 am

ouragans wrote:Wave 36 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/4/22

A tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N to 26N, moving westward at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is along the wave near 22.0N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 26Nz between 31W and 38W.


They did not put wave 37 near Cape Verde Islands.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#192 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2022 6:58 am

Waves 36-37 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/5/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 04N to 20N,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 17N between 17W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40N from 15N to 25N
through a 1012 mb low near 20N40W, and moving west around 10 kt.
Aided by divergent winds aloft, isolated thunderstorms are seen
near the northern tip of the wave from 26N to 30N between 35W and
40W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#193 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:48 am

Waves 36-37 at 122:05 UTC discussion on 9/6/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave was relocated to 25W from 04N
to 20N, and moving is west around 10 kt. This wave is embedded
within a newly formed broad area of low pressure southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the third paragraph of the Special
Features section above for more information.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 10N to 21N, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection
near this wave on the latest analysis.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#194 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:03 am

Waves 36-37-38 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/7/22.

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa, passing through
13W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
05N to 10N between 11W and 16W, and from 04N to 09N between 20W
and 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 04N to 20N,
moving west at 15 kt. A 1010 mb low, discussed above in the
Special Features section, is along the tropical wave at 14N31W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
12N to 19N between 29W and 33W. Refer to the section above for
details on weather and marine conditions, and tropical formation
potential.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 10N to 20N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection
near this wave during this analysis.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#195 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:14 pm

Waves 37/low pressure - 38 at 00:05 UTC on 9/8/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
05N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is to its west from 08N to 11N between
23W-25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
22N42W to 16N42W and to 10N42W. No convection is noted along and
near the immediate wave axis, however, please see the Special
Features section above for details regarding low pressure of
1004 mb this is along the wave axis near 19N42W.

SPECIAL FEATURE
Low pressure of 1004 mb is located near 19N42W. The low is along
a tropical wave axis that extends from 22N42W to 16N42W and to
10N42W. Satellite imagery shows a large cluster of numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection to the NE of the low from
20N to 25N between 37W-41W. ASCAT data from earlier today
suggested gale-force winds in the northern semicircle of the low.
Seas with these winds are in the 12-15 ft range. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional
development. However, an increase in organization of the system
could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical
cyclone in the next day or so as it moves westward to west-
northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic. By this
weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development. For more information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. This system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings,
please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. Also, please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#196 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:08 am

Waves 37/Low Pressure - 38 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/9/22.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W, from 16N
southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 44W, from 21N
southward, moving west at around 10 kt.
A gale-force 1008 mb low pressure
system located about 1200 nautical miles east of the Leeward
Islands near 19.5N44W continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms that are displaced well to the northeast of the
circulation center due to strong upper-level winds. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 26N
between 37W and 43W. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft.
Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain strong, the
low still has some opportunity during the next day or so to become
a short-lived tropical cyclone while moving toward the west-
northwest at about 15 kt into the central subtropical Atlantic.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#197 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:02 am

Waves 37-38 at 12:95 UTC discussion on 9/10/22.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W, from 15N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure area
is along the tropical wave near 08N32W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 30W
and 34W, and from 05N to 07N between 32W and 36W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 48W/49W, from 24N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure area
is along the tropical wave near 24N48.5W, although it is not clear
if there is indeed a closed low and/or if it is more mid-level.
Convection has really developed overnight with numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection noted within 300 nm in the north
quadrant.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#198 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2022 12:41 pm

Waves 37-38 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 9/11/22.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured the strong wave, showing a sharp trough and fresh NE
winds from 15N to 22W and between 30W and 40W. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery from 05N to 18N and between 30W and 43W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W,
south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is surrounded by a
dry and dusty Saharan airmass that is inhibiting the development
of deep convection.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#199 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:16 pm

Waves 37-38-39 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 9/12/22.

A tropical wave has been introduced off the coast of Africa based
on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagrams and wave guidance. The
trough axis is along 19W, south of 21N and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
06N to 17N and E of 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured the strong wave, showing a sharp trough and fresh NE
winds from 15N to 23W and between 36W and 44W. Seas in these
waters are 6-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery from 07N to 18N and between 33W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W, south
of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated
with this feature.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#200 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:35 am

Waves 37-38-39 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/13/22.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 22W, from 21N
southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 22W and 26W,
and also from 16N to 18N between 16W and 24W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W, from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 37W
and 44W, and also from 14N to 18N between 44W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea along
69W/70W, and was clearly noted at the surface on overnight
scatterometer data, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 73W and 75W.
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