Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil (Is Subtropical Storm YAKECAN)

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TheAustinMan
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Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil (Is Subtropical Storm YAKECAN)

#1 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun May 15, 2022 9:49 am

An area of low-pressure is currently developing off the coast of Rio Grande do Sul in southeastern Brazil along a portion of a low-level trough that moved offshore last night. It is currently generating a flank of disorganized convection with modest -50°C cloud tops, aided by diffluent flow from a shortwave aloft.

Source: SSEC RealEarth
Image

This system is expected to deepen markedly when it becomes embedded in a trough / closed upper-level low, tracking towards the southeast and then barreling back to the west and northwards as it rounds the cyclonic flow of the upper-level system. While it will be very clearly an extratropical system for the first leg of its journey, global guidance suggests that the it may acquire deep central convection and possibly subtropical characteristics upon exiting the central part of the upper-level system. This would be more likely in the latter half of the week, between Wednesday and Friday.

Sea-surface temperatures are definitely not of the tropical variety (around 20°C) and upper-level temperatures aren't dramatically cold. Additionally, this system should remain poleward of the jet stream. The global guidance also do not generally indicate a deep column of cyclonic potential vorticity that would be expected of a tropical system, so for the time being a well-organized subtropical cyclone in the South Atlantic appears to be the most favorable outcome. Should it become named by the Marine Meteorological Service of the Brazilian Navy, it would be named Yakecan.

This system may bring gale-force or storm-force winds to parts of coastal Uruguay and coastal parts of the Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Relevant weather stations of interest include Salgado Filho Airport and João Simões Lopes Neto Int'l Airport. These locations could receive gusts of 40-60 mph, contingent on the storm's strength and its proximity to the coast.
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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#2 Postby rodolfo alves » Sun May 15, 2022 10:16 am

The Brazilian Navy has already issued a warning for the formation of a Subtropical Storm starting this Monday.

WARNING NR 337/2021
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600Z - SAT - 14/MAY/2022
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE STARTING AT 161200Z WITH CENTRAL 996HPA AT 36S042W, MOVING AT 10KT TO SOUTHWEST AND AFTER THAT, TO WEST AND NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED CICLONIC WIND FORCE 9/10 WITH GUSTS, AFFETING AREA SOUTH OCEANIC AREA S OF 30S AND W OF 035W.
VALID UNTIL 170000Z.


https://www.marinha.mil.br/chm/dados-do ... s/warnings
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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#3 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sun May 15, 2022 11:13 am

Interesting all this... Having a (sub)tropical cyclone in the South Atlantic sometimes cheers me up more than a Category 2/3 hurricane in the North Atlantic :D
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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#4 Postby rodolfo alves » Sun May 15, 2022 12:30 pm

Last GFS 12z showing a subtropical cyclone landfall in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul.

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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#5 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun May 15, 2022 2:16 pm

Just pulled the latest GFS looks like Uruguay will get about 50 knot winds.

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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#6 Postby rodolfo alves » Sun May 15, 2022 3:48 pm

12Z ECMWF

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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#7 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun May 15, 2022 5:54 pm

General overview of what's expected from this system. Not an official forecast.

Source: Me
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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#8 Postby rodolfo alves » Sun May 15, 2022 6:24 pm

GFS 18Z with very "interesting" satellite image simulation

Image

Image
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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#9 Postby rodolfo alves » Mon May 16, 2022 5:37 pm

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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil

#10 Postby rodolfo alves » Mon May 16, 2022 5:39 pm

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Re: YAKECAN - Subtropical Storm

#11 Postby jaguarjace » Mon May 16, 2022 10:03 pm

Image
Disclaimer: NOAA SSD no longer supports GOES Floaters. This product was manually generated by me.

WARNING NR 356/2022
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 0000Z – TUE - 17/MAY/2022
SUBTROPICAL STORM "YAKECAN" WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 HPA AT 38S044W, MOVING TO
WEAST/NORTHWEAST WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT ON CYCLONE SOUTH SECTOR.
FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/11 (35-60 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 400 NM AROUND THE CENTER.
ROUGH/VERY ROUGH SEA ASSOCIATED.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
1712Z: 34.SS050.5W - 994 HPA - ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45-50 KNOTS - SUBTROPICAL STORM
1800Z: 31S049W - 994 HPA - – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45-60 KNOTS - TROPICAL STORM
1812Z: 28.5S0345W - 994 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-50 KNOTS - TROPICAL STORM
1900Z: 28.8S040W - 990 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-50 KNOTS - TROPICAL STORM
1912Z: 30.2S035.5W - 990 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS - SUBTROPICAL STORM
VALID UNTIL 191200Z.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 337/2022.

Source: https://www.marinha.mil.br/chm/dados-do-smm/warnings-and-forecasts/warnings
Last edited by jaguarjace on Tue May 17, 2022 9:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: YAKECAN - Subtropical Storm

#12 Postby jaguarjace » Tue May 17, 2022 8:15 am

Image

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Disclaimer: NOAA SSD no longer supports GOES Floaters. This product was manually generated by me.
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Re: Developing low-pressure area off SE Brazil (Is Subtropical Storm YAKECAN)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 9:41 am

Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions in the YAKECAN thread.
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