Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

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nativefloridian
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Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#1 Postby nativefloridian » Wed May 18, 2022 9:06 am

Interesting read by Nick Shay, Professor of Oceanography, University of Miami.
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#2 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed May 18, 2022 12:58 pm

nativefloridian wrote:Interesting read by Nick Shay, Professor of Oceanography, University of Miami.
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html


Definitely not what you want to see if you live along the Gulf coast. Of course, one can get hit any year along the Gulf. However, I believe looking at data that the strongest storms may be in the western part of the basin, similar to 2020, 2017, and 2005.
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#3 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 18, 2022 1:10 pm

I don't put any stock in the article. The loop current is always there and it's always a source of deep oceanic heat. It's hard to say how much impact, if any, it had on the strengthening of Katrina and Rita, but any hurricane moving across that part of the Gulf has that heat source available every year. However, it takes much more than warm water to make a strong hurricane.
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Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#4 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 18, 2022 1:46 pm

nativefloridian wrote:Interesting read by Nick Shay, Professor of Oceanography, University of Miami.
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html

I was just talking about it in the models discussion thread yesterday that the loop current definitely sticks out very distinctly on the SST plots this year and most of the GFS runs which had the system blowing up in May of all months had it running over the loop current.
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#5 Postby ROCK » Wed May 18, 2022 2:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't put any stock in the article. The loop current is always there and it's always a source of deep oceanic heat. It's hard to say how much impact, if any, it had on the strengthening of Katrina and Rita, but any hurricane moving across that part of the Gulf has that heat source available every year. However, it takes much more than warm water to make a strong hurricane.



Rita bombed sub 900 over the LC. I would disagree in that it definitely had an huge impact in 2005. JMO of course :)
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#6 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 18, 2022 2:34 pm

ROCK wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't put any stock in the article. The loop current is always there and it's always a source of deep oceanic heat. It's hard to say how much impact, if any, it had on the strengthening of Katrina and Rita, but any hurricane moving across that part of the Gulf has that heat source available every year. However, it takes much more than warm water to make a strong hurricane.



Rita bombed sub 900 over the LC. I would disagree in that it definitely had an huge impact in 2005. JMO of course :)

Not just Rita but Katrina as well. Michael blew up over the loop current as well although there were other factors in its intensification.
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Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#7 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 18, 2022 3:30 pm

Seems like that study is gaining attention on wxtwitter

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1527012519075844097


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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#8 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 18, 2022 9:10 pm

skyline385 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't put any stock in the article. The loop current is always there and it's always a source of deep oceanic heat. It's hard to say how much impact, if any, it had on the strengthening of Katrina and Rita, but any hurricane moving across that part of the Gulf has that heat source available every year. However, it takes much more than warm water to make a strong hurricane.



Rita bombed sub 900 over the LC. I would disagree in that it definitely had an huge impact in 2005. JMO of course :)

Not just Rita but Katrina as well. Michael blew up over the loop current as well although there were other factors in its intensification.


Same goes with Camille in 1969.
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#9 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 19, 2022 8:43 am

My point was that the loop current has always been there, every year. Its "look" has nothing to do with the potential for hurricanes to strengthen when the pass over it.
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#10 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu May 19, 2022 2:40 pm

It feels like this article “Yahoo’d” a legitimate concept by simplifying it to a point of near-inaccuracy. The way it’s phrased feels like it draws the average reader to the following conclusions:

- the loop current drove the 2005 season’s 27 named storms, including Wilma’s intensity, despite barely glancing the loop as it accelerated toward Florida, long after it reached peak intensity in the Caribbean
- that the Gulf of Mexico is typically safely cooler without the loop current’s anomalous heat this year (“ Normally, these upper ocean waters mix, allowing warm spots to cool quickly.”) which isn’t the full story since the relatively shallow water depth and consistently warm air temps in mid summer are easily enough to keep oceanic heat content sufficient for hurricanes without an anomalous loop current
- that the presence of La Niña means that conditions WILL be favorable for storms to “explode” over the loop current. While it’s of course possible, the phrasing makes it sound like favorable conditions in the gulf would be static, instead of suggesting that the La Niña is one several factors that can favor a tendency towards more conducive conditions on average.

I don’t expect the author to cater to weather weenies like us, but I think there are better ways of simplifying these concepts in articles like this while keeping them accurate.
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#11 Postby MHC Tracking » Thu May 19, 2022 3:27 pm

I'd say this article makes a comparison that could be made (and has been made) in many different years. The loop current is always there and has always been a source of high oceanic heat content. However, it is slightly concerning to see the levels of OHC reaching this high this early in the year. It all depends on whether anything will take advantage of them, which is certainly not a given. Let's hope it remains that way.
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Re: Article re GOM Loop Current Comparison- 2022 to 2005

#12 Postby psyclone » Thu May 19, 2022 11:01 pm

As long as a hurricane is on the move the loop current is probably overrated wrt to gulf canes. The entire Gulf is rocket fuel at peak season, and the deep warmth of the loop current itself is a fairly small area. It probably doesn't make a big difference as long as the storm is transiting along, as they usually are. If a storm were to stall over the loop...it wouldn't need to worry about upwelling...but considering the small spatial area of the loop..such an event would be unlikely.
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