Disturbance over the Central GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

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kevin
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Disturbance over the Central GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

#1 Postby kevin » Sun May 22, 2022 3:50 am

Not really sure where to post this and I don't want to make a new thread for this in case it's nothing, but to my untrained eye the Gulf is looking very disturbed right now. Are there any models showing development?

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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#2 Postby Nimbus » Sun May 22, 2022 5:40 am

Not really sure where to post this and I don't want to make a new thread for this in case it's nothing, but to my untrained eye the Gulf is looking very disturbed right now. Are there any models showing development?


Depends somewhat on the position of the high further east over west coast of Florida.
If the convection had centered under that there would be low shear, but western edge?

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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 22, 2022 7:20 am

About complex of convection in GOM.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A large line of thunderstorms
persists over the central Gulf of Mexico, roughly 30 nm wide from
24N90W to 25N88W. The thunderstorms are due to divergent flow
aloft associated with an upper trough over the north- central
Gulf. The thunderstorms are also drawing energy from the warm
Loop Current, which flows from the Yucatan Channel into the
central Gulf. Winds in the area of the thunderstorms may reach
gale force at times early this morning. A ship observation and a
pair of recent scatterometer pass confirmed gale force winds along
the line of thunderstorms. An outflow boundary was observed moving
into the west-central Gulf as far west as 94W, with an estimated
speed of 30 kt. In addition to gale force winds, mariners can
expect locally higher wave heights and frequent lightning in the
central Gulf near this line of thunderstorms. Wave heights may be
as high as 13 ft. The thunderstorm activity and associated
impacts will diminish through late morning or early afternoon.


 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1528348286322499584


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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 22, 2022 12:41 pm

No development is expected as conditions are not favorable and will be inland by Monday.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure over the north central Gulf of
Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and environmental conditions
do not appear favorable for significant development before this
system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast in a day or so.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall
and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#5 Postby tropicwatch » Sun May 22, 2022 12:55 pm

It is bringing some much need rain to the northern Gulf Coast. My yard says thank you 8-)
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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#6 Postby KatDaddy » Sun May 22, 2022 1:05 pm

A reminder that the 2022 Hurricane Season is basically here with the official start next Wednesday. I hope LA is spared this year. It’s been a rough few years.
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#7 Postby MGC » Sun May 22, 2022 1:08 pm

Looks like a small circulation has developed.....MGC
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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 22, 2022 1:20 pm

MId level circulation.

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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#9 Postby GlennOBX » Sun May 22, 2022 1:22 pm

Pretty sure I know the answer to this, but does this come close to matching what the GFS, on a 3 day bender, predicted a couple or 3 weeks ago?
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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX

#10 Postby galaxy401 » Sun May 22, 2022 2:03 pm

Well it’s Invest 90L now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: Disturbance over the Central GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 22, 2022 2:05 pm

Go to the 90L thread to continue the discussions.
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