LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

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Blown Away
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LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#1 Postby Blown Away » Wed May 25, 2022 7:50 am

Image
2022 Prediction Map - Florida and Carolinas are the hot spots. Interesting!
Link To WPBF LRC discussion: https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-hu ... /39296869#
Image
2021 Prediction Map
Image
2021 CONUS Hurricane Landfall Map
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2020 Prediction Map
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2020 CONUS Hurricane Landfall Map
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#2 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed May 25, 2022 9:29 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/NrOjBpO.jpg
2022 Prediction Map - Florida and Carolinas are the hot spots. Interesting!
Link To WESH that discusses LRC: https://www.wesh.com/article/hurricane- ... 1/35616280
https://i.imgur.com/5zO0qT6.jpg
2021 Prediction Map
https://i.imgur.com/FBXZq22.jpg
2021 CONUS Hurricane Landfall Map
https://i.imgur.com/zJcm5mc.jpg
2020 Prediction Map
https://i.imgur.com/1mWhy0F.jpg
2020 CONUS Hurricane Landfall Map

Those were pretty accurate in 2020.
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LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#3 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 25, 2022 10:55 am

Are there any other verification years for this theory?
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#4 Postby aspen » Wed May 25, 2022 11:38 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/NrOjBpO.jpg
2022 Prediction Map - Florida and Carolinas are the hot spots. Interesting!
Link To WESH that discusses LRC: https://www.wesh.com/article/hurricane- ... 1/35616280
https://i.imgur.com/5zO0qT6.jpg
2021 Prediction Map
https://i.imgur.com/FBXZq22.jpg
2021 CONUS Hurricane Landfall Map
https://i.imgur.com/zJcm5mc.jpg
2020 Prediction Map
https://i.imgur.com/1mWhy0F.jpg
2020 CONUS Hurricane Landfall Map

Wow, both 2020 and 2021 verified quite well. That’s not a good sign for southern Florida and the East Coast; if something makes landfall in the Carolinas, it could be an East Coast Rider like Isaias and bring impacts all the way into New England.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#5 Postby IcyTundra » Wed May 25, 2022 1:45 pm

I still don’t think the LRC is real seems like a coincidence that it did well it 2020 and 2021.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#6 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 25, 2022 2:16 pm

IcyTundra wrote:I still don’t think the LRC is real seems like a coincidence that it did well it 2020 and 2021.

Those are my thoughts on it too. Google it and all you get are facebook posts and a couple of news articles, yea that doesn't sound right...
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#7 Postby Blown Away » Wed May 25, 2022 8:23 pm

skyline385 wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:I still don’t think the LRC is real seems like a coincidence that it did well it 2020 and 2021.

Those are my thoughts on it too. Google it and all you get are facebook posts and a couple of news articles, yea that doesn't sound right...


https://www.wpbf.com/amp/article/florid ... r/39296869

Watch the WPBF discussion about LRC. The idea has been around for a long time. At a minimum it’s an interesting perspective.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#8 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 26, 2022 6:45 pm

I was excited to be wowed, but "meh" :na:
I conceptionally buy into the concept but there was little offered data, and little offered toward what is believed to be the repeating rhythm or cycle that we are in now. Okay, so they picked Florida as one of two primary hot-spots. So did I while growing up every year in S. Florida. I just don't think the article offered much other then fluff.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#9 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:46 am

Image

Timing off by a few weeks, but 2022 LRC Prediction calls for a GOM area storm/low moving E over Florida Peninsula.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#10 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:25 am

Why does this thread exist? LRC is useless. The fact it only ever pops up in random news articles or Facebook posts should be a sign. It's quack meteorology. It is a good thing for those into psychology though, proof humans will try to find patterns even in random noise
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#11 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:09 am

NotSparta wrote:Why does this thread exist? LRC is useless. The fact it only ever pops up in random news articles or Facebook posts should be a sign. It's quack meteorology. It is a good thing for those into psychology though, proof humans will try to find patterns even in random noise


This theory is worthy to be on Storm2k Talkin Tropics. It’s based on patterns, last I checked meteorologists look to the past for patterns to assist in predictions. Also, the WPBF prediction using LRC is in line with nearly all the predictions with the Storm2k Expert Predictions.

Yes, the meteorologist is a TV head, but many of these folks on local TV are extremely qualified & educated, likely much more than 99% on this board. Meteorologists have to find work and just because they are on local TV doesn’t always discredit them.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#12 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:25 am

skyline385 wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:I still don’t think the LRC is real seems like a coincidence that it did well it 2020 and 2021.

Those are my thoughts on it too. Google it and all you get are facebook posts and a couple of news articles, yea that doesn't sound right...


Theory has been around for a while, the WPBF meteorologist started using it for their hurricane season forecasts starting a few years ago. If you listen to the WPBF link, they go into detail on how LRC works. There is a whole discussion about it, not just random articles and FB posts.

Is it some big scientific thing, no, it’s just looking at patterns of Low’s moving.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#13 Postby MHC Tracking » Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:53 am

Not trying to be rude here, but I've never seen a peer-reviewed research paper published in a journal of note affirming the LRC's existence and use as a forecasting tool.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#14 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:25 am

MHC Tracking wrote:Not trying to be rude here, but I've never seen a peer-reviewed research paper published in a journal of note affirming the LRC's existence and use as a forecasting tool.


It’s a theory for tracking low’s that was developed by meteorologist Gary Lezak. It was utilized by our local West Palm meteorologist to make a their prediction. It’s not an “Official Forecast” please just see it for what it is. There was a time when weather forecasts didn’t rely on peer reviewed research and high powered computer modeling.

Link to Gary Lezak:
https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-sp ... ?_amp=true
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#15 Postby MHC Tracking » Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:00 am

Blown Away wrote:
MHC Tracking wrote:Not trying to be rude here, but I've never seen a peer-reviewed research paper published in a journal of note affirming the LRC's existence and use as a forecasting tool.


It’s a theory for tracking low’s that was developed by meteorologist Gary Lezak. It was utilized by our local West Palm meteorologist to make a their prediction. It’s not an “Official Forecast” please just see it for what it is. There was a time when weather forecasts didn’t rely on peer reviewed research and high powered computer modeling.

Link to Gary Lezak:
https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-sp ... ?_amp=true

Yet this "forecast" from Gary Lezak predicts this:
"This shows us that this year’s LRC is likely going to produce some big severe weather days, and they will be closer to Kansas City.

There are around four parts of the pattern we now have high confidence that will be close to big severe weather outbreaks.

The two big ones are expected around April 20 and May 8. The pattern is cycling, and it oscillates a bit. These are likely two-to-four-day severe weather risks that will track across the U.S."
Neither of these predicted events occurred, and anything that did happen did not seriously impact the around Kansas City.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#16 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:58 pm

I don't see anything wrong with discussing this, even though I don't see strong merit in this theory,

My bias is that during past seasons a WESH met, not sure which one or more than one, have said downright stupid things that wreaked of overconfidence and almost a disdain for the NHC. I don't see that here so while the idea may have no merit I'm not seeing any harm.

In my opinion if you want to see how serious someone is about a theory listen to what they say when it fails and how they plan to adapt / learn from the failure.
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Re: LRC - Lezak Recurring Cycle 2022 Forecast

#17 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:11 pm

I've learned over the years these cycle/anecdotal forecasts/predictions work within the cycle until they don't work anymore :lol:. When the cycle changes then the struggles begin.

When it rains a lot, predicting it will rain is easy. Until it stops raining.
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