Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[Jr0d]

could theoretically (Some models show it & some don't) make it into the Atlantic with the LLC and still named Agatha, or lose the LLC and regenerate as Alex.

Even if the system remained intact it would get a new name when it crosses over the Atlantic basin as the East Pacific names are for EPAC storms only. Also if an Atlantic(Caribbean) storm crosses Central America intact, it would also get a new name on the Pacific side, the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

First Lemon of the year! I hoping the GFS solution actually pans out because I will be down in Puerto Rico and the GFS solution will be a swell maker for PR. I also do not want to be away if a storm hits home(Key West) as I would like to be able to make sure my boat is safe. The EURO and CMC are hinting at a significant storm heading towards South Florida.

That said, climatology rules this time of the year and the bullish models showing a potential hurricane are highly unlikely given shear factors...the water however is exceptionally hot in the gulf, even for this time of the year.

[InfernoFlameCat]

could theoretically (Some models show it & some don't) make it into the Atlantic with the LLC and still named Agatha, or lose the LLC and regenerate as Alex.

Even if the system remained intact it would get a new name when it crosses over the Atlantic basin as the East Pacific names are for EPAC storms only. Also if an Atlantic(Caribbean) storm crosses Central America intact, it would also get a new name on the Pacific side, the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

First Lemon of the year! I hoping the GFS solution actually pans out because I will be down in Puerto Rico and the GFS solution will be a swell maker for PR. I also do not want to be away if a storm hits home(Key West) as I would like to be able to make sure my boat is safe. The EURO and CMC are hinting at a significant storm heading towards South Florida.

That said, climatology rules this time of the year and the bullish models showing a potential hurricane are highly unlikely given shear factors...the water however is exceptionally hot in the gulf, even for this time of the year.

That would be our second lemon. Also if Agatha does remain together(very unlikely) it would still be named Agatha.

[Iceresistance]

could theoretically (Some models show it & some don't) make it into the Atlantic with the LLC and still named Agatha, or lose the LLC and regenerate as Alex.

Even if the system remained intact it would get a new name when it crosses over the Atlantic basin as the East Pacific names are for EPAC storms only. Also if an Atlantic(Caribbean) storm crosses Central America intact, it would also get a new name on the Pacific side, the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

First Lemon of the year! I hoping the GFS solution actually pans out because I will be down in Puerto Rico and the GFS solution will be a swell maker for PR. I also do not want to be away if a storm hits home(Key West) as I would like to be able to make sure my boat is safe. The EURO and CMC are hinting at a significant storm heading towards South Florida.

That said, climatology rules this time of the year and the bullish models showing a potential hurricane are highly unlikely given shear factors...the water however is exceptionally hot in the gulf, even for this time of the year.

It has changed since then, Hurricane Otto was still 'Otto' when it came into the EPAC from the ATL in 2016.

Either way, this is the 2nd AOI (Area of Interest) of the year, the first one was in May with Invest 90L, which came ashore in Panhandle Florida/Southern Alabama.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

could theoretically (Some models show it & some don't) make it into the Atlantic with the LLC and still named Agatha, or lose the LLC and regenerate as Alex.

Even if the system remained intact it would get a new name when it crosses over the Atlantic basin as the East Pacific names are for EPAC storms only. Also if an Atlantic(Caribbean) storm crosses Central America intact, it would also get a new name on the Pacific side, the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

First Lemon of the year! I hoping the GFS solution actually pans out because I will be down in Puerto Rico and the GFS solution will be a swell maker for PR. I also do not want to be away if a storm hits home(Key West) as I would like to be able to make sure my boat is safe. The EURO and CMC are hinting at a significant storm heading towards South Florida.

That said, climatology rules this time of the year and the bullish models showing a potential hurricane are highly unlikely given shear factors...the water however is exceptionally hot in the gulf, even for this time of the year.

This used to be the case, but the rules on crossover names changed within the past decade; this is why Hurricane Otto in 2016 was not renamed when it successfully crossed over to the Eastern Pacific from the North Atlantic. If Agatha were to lose its LLC (which is quite likely given the mountainous terrain near the landfall location), then it would be renamed if it were to redevelop in the Bay of Campeche. However, the crossover between basins is no longer a reason why the name of the storm would change.

[underthwx]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1530586136992784384?t=npcetFyVXzwc50UXLqSHBA&s=19

Is this potential BOC low development, an indirect or direct result of whatever Agathas effects are?

Directly from Agatha since the NHC is showing a strong recurve towards the NNE to NE and towards the BoC (As the NHC has a 20% in the next 5 days for that area for this reason), could theoretically (Some models show it & some don't) make it into the Atlantic with the LLC and still named Agatha, or lose the LLC and regenerate as Alex.

Thanks for the reply!.... Couldn't have said it better myself...

[Teban54]

the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

This is also not true. Plenty of storms that crossed over from EPAC/CPAC to WPAC kept their names. Some examples include John 1994, Paka 1997, Ioke 2006, Genevieve 2014, and Hector 2018.

Here is a list of storms that went through EPAC, CPAC and then got all the way to WPAC.

[SFLcane]

Gonna need a bigger boat..

[skyline385]

Gonna need a bigger boat..

https://i.postimg.cc/QdGvrM5N/8-E37586-F-B875-46-B7-A372-2-B148-D3-E941-C.png

Total precipitation is kinda misleading, its not that bad when looking at 5-day period.

[aspen]

The HWRF is, as usual, providing the most bullish solution. It has a strong TS in the Gulf by Day 5, but it doesn’t get far north and instead turns west into Mexico.

[Jr0d]

the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

This is also not true. Plenty of storms that crossed over from EPAC/CPAC to WPAC kept their names. Some examples include John 1994, Paka 1997, Ioke 2006, Genevieve 2014, and Hector 2018.

Here is a list of storms that went through EPAC, CPAC and then got all the way to WPAC.

I did not not realize this has changed.

It was awhile ago, but I do remember a CPAC hurricane crossing the date line and becoming a typhoon with a new name in WPAC.

Im glad they changed the naming procedures as it majes no sense to rename a storm just because it is in a different basin.

[cycloneye]

From 4 PM CDT Agatha discussion:

Rapid weakening is
forecast after the storm makes landfall, and although the storm is
expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico,
the remnants are likely to move over the southwestern Gulf and the
Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week.

[blp]

It looks 18z GFS is also slowing things down. Last 5 runs decent shift SW.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
generally eastward near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[floridasun]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
generally eastward near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

https://i.imgur.com/iBM5rIh.jpg

you see east stift on yallow cone

[floridasun]

models dont know were take this after boc some toward north gulf other east north east

[Nuno]

the same thing happens when an East Pacific storm crosses the international date line, they get a new name.

This is also not true. Plenty of storms that crossed over from EPAC/CPAC to WPAC kept their names. Some examples include John 1994, Paka 1997, Ioke 2006, Genevieve 2014, and Hector 2018.

Here is a list of storms that went through EPAC, CPAC and then got all the way to WPAC.

I did not not realize this has changed.

It was awhile ago, but I do remember a CPAC hurricane crossing the date line and becoming a typhoon with a new name in WPAC.

Im glad they changed the naming procedures as it majes no sense to rename a storm just because it is in a different basin.

You might be confusing with the designation change from Hurricane to Typhoon as John in 1994 kept his name but became Typhoon John after it crossed the dateline into JTWC territory

[NDG]

HWRF is on crack with its solution of a Hurricane in the western GOM by mid to late next week when both the GFS and Euro show shear ripping through that area of the GOM.

[KN2731]

Up to 0/30.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico and Northwest Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea by the
middle of next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter while the system drifts generally eastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Includes now NW Caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

HWRF is on crack with its solution of a Hurricane in the western GOM by mid to late next week when both the GFS and Euro show shear ripping through that area of the GOM.

The HWRF rarely sees a system it doesn't like for intensification beyond reality