Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[eastcoastFL]

00z GFS has 1001mb TS into extreme S.FL. Looks like the majority of rain and wind remains offshore.

[skyline385]

Weaker 0Z EPS with lots of members above 1000mb prior to FL landfall

[kevin]

Lots of activity east of Yucatan now:

[skyline385]

That's a big blob of convection going off

[Blown Away]

That's a big blob of convection going off

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/e33b57c47f4adf07b59b57c2f05a9e96.gif

Convection blob in line with 00z EURO.

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS has 1001mb TS into extreme S.FL. Looks like the majority of rain and wind remains offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

At that point yes it would be offshore because the real weather is to the east of the "center"...look upstream from that run and see where the rain is, central and sofla is getting rain, and plenty of it, doesn't look like a blockbuster e.g 12 inches+ widespread, might overachieve on the winds e.g 50+.

[skyline385]

00z GFS has 1001mb TS into extreme S.FL. Looks like the majority of rain and wind remains offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

At that point yes it would be offshore because the real weather is to the east of the "center"...look upstream from that run and see where the rain is, central and sofla is getting rain, and plenty of it, doesn't look like a blockbuster e.g 12 inches+ widespread, might overachieve on the winds e.g 50+.

There really isnt a lot of rain except for some around Homestead

[eastcoastFL]

00z GFS has 1001mb TS into extreme S.FL. Looks like the majority of rain and wind remains offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

At that point yes it would be offshore because the real weather is to the east of the "center"...look upstream from that run and see where the rain is, central and sofla is getting rain, and plenty of it, doesn't look like a blockbuster e.g 12 inches+ widespread, might overachieve on the winds e.g 50+.

It won’t take much to spark localized flooding after all the rain we had this past weekend.

[eastcoastFL]

ECMWF crosses central FL @ 999mb

[Nimbus]

Some convection in the BOC starting to fight the shear and wrap near the surface center.
No idea what the surface pressures look like though.
That uplift over the Yucatan probably will dissipate at some point.

[cane5]

I’m not real thrilled about this but this is the price we pay for living in a Tropical jungle. Now a 70% chance of development. Would be nice to see a high ridge develop over the storm and keep it South of Florida but this time it looks like it’s just counting down the hours. Even a minor wind event is ok but this looks like a real rain maker. Half of South Fla is under sea level.

[cycloneye]

Should be an Invest shortly. Now 50%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula
is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression by the weekend as it moves northeastward into
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and
crosses the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of
days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the
Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I am not too surprised about not having the invest yet despite the 50% because they are trying to pinpoint a low pressure to start it but as daylight comes to the area, the visible images hopefully shows a low spinning and then have the invest up.

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS has 1001mb TS into extreme S.FL. Looks like the majority of rain and wind remains offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

At that point yes it would be offshore because the real weather is to the east of the "center"...look upstream from that run and see where the rain is, central and sofla is getting rain, and plenty of it, doesn't look like a blockbuster e.g 12 inches+ widespread, might overachieve on the winds e.g 50+.

It won’t take much to spark localized flooding after all the rain we had this past weekend.

Yep. it's been wet in sofla since last Friday, someone will have flooding issues from this event regardless of which model is ultimately correct.

[tropicwatch]

This should be an invest shortly and I think they might initialize east of Yucatan.
850mb vorticity
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[Blown Away]

00z GFS has 1001mb TS into extreme S.FL. Looks like the majority of rain and wind remains offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

At that point yes it would be offshore because the real weather is to the east of the "center"...look upstream from that run and see where the rain is, central and sofla is getting rain, and plenty of it, doesn't look like a blockbuster e.g 12 inches+ widespread, might overachieve on the winds e.g 50+.

There really isnt a lot of rain except for some around Homestead

https://i.imgur.com/ObRuMWr.png

8+ inches in flat urban Miami/Dade County will be a big flooding problem. Also, Euro is N of Lake O and GFS is S tip of Peninsula, something in the middle is the likely track ATM.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... Still remains about the same, 40-50's mph wind gusts likely on or just off the FL coast & Keys.
The developing LLC meanders just over the Yucatan for @36 hours, if that adjusts to just offshore I think future Alex has a shot to become a decent TS.

[skyline385]

At that point yes it would be offshore because the real weather is to the east of the "center"...look upstream from that run and see where the rain is, central and sofla is getting rain, and plenty of it, doesn't look like a blockbuster e.g 12 inches+ widespread, might overachieve on the winds e.g 50+.

There really isnt a lot of rain except for some around Homestead

https://i.imgur.com/ObRuMWr.png

8+ inches in flat urban Miami/Dade County will be a big flooding problem. Also, Euro is N of Lake O and GFS is S tip of Peninsula, something in the middle is the likely track ATM.

EURO has even less rainfall, there is going to be some localized flooding but nothing extraordinary imo

[Blown Away]

Latest.

[jlauderdal]

There really isnt a lot of rain except for some around Homestead

https://i.imgur.com/ObRuMWr.png

8+ inches in flat urban Miami/Dade County will be a big flooding problem. Also, Euro is N of Lake O and GFS is S tip of Peninsula, something in the middle is the likely track ATM.

EURO has even less rainfall, there is going to be some localized flooding but nothing extraordinary imo

https://i.imgur.com/hAWyooX.png

Be careful with precip model output in tropical systems, next to impossible to nail down where bands set up or don't and then go way over or way under on the broad output you see on the maps.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/vydvSDC.gif
Latest.

Early morning eye candy on IR, not much happening at the surface, yet.