Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[Jelmergraaff]

Probably within 6 hours of moving over the BOC.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/7725/sZkWgN.gif

Is it just me or is there still somewhat of a closed LLC?

[skyline385]

EURO not backing off

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220531/48d0779a05358388f46b015b360b3ab3.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/q8aE9YD.jpg

12z Euro basically the same as 00z. Still call for 40-67 mph gusts along the Florida WC, EC, and Keys...

As usual the Euro leans L which is Central Florida crossover and GFS is R and stays S of Peninsula... Likely somewhere in the middle is correct, but will there really be a center or just a big slug of TS winds and rain...

Hmm i think you will be lucky to find any sustain TS force winds overland most if not all should stay over the water.

EURO doesn't show sustained TS over land only gusts and even those have gone down a good bit in last run

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of the Agatha remnants that is getting closer to the water of BOC.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Probably within 6 hours of moving over the BOC.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/7725/sZkWgN.gif

Is it just me or is there still somewhat of a closed LLC?

Purely mid level. Agatha's LLC dissipated over land.
EDIT: hmm, the more I look at visible the more I see a bit of a possible weak surface low actually.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/q8aE9YD.jpg

12z Euro basically the same as 00z. Still call for 40-67 mph gusts along the Florida WC, EC, and Keys...

As usual the Euro leans L which is Central Florida crossover and GFS is R and stays S of Peninsula... Likely somewhere in the middle is correct, but will there really be a center or just a big slug of TS winds and rain...

Hmm i think you will be lucky to find any sustain TS force winds overland most if not all should stay over the water.

EURO doesn't show sustained TS over land only gusts and even those have gone down a good bit in last run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220531/fddc89c814c8450e756873af9742e05f.jpg

Thats sleeping weather lol. Gentle breeze on a weekly base across south florida. I recorded mutiple wind gusts yesterday to near 60 mph in lake worth with a downburst so i have already experienced my TS lol. Those expecting much in the way of wind from this will be greatly disappointed. Rain could be a problem up here in west palm if the euro is right. My cocorahs gauge is waiting.

[SFLcane]

Closeup view of the Agatha remnants that is getting closer to the water of BOC.

https://i.imgur.com/oe4KZp5.gif

It's gonna get pulled into the yucatan.

[Blown Away]

EURO not backing off

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220531/48d0779a05358388f46b015b360b3ab3.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/q8aE9YD.jpg

12z Euro basically the same as 00z. Still call for 40-67 mph gusts along the Florida WC, EC, and Keys...

As usual the Euro leans L which is Central Florida crossover and GFS is R and stays S of Peninsula... Likely somewhere in the middle is correct, but will there really be a center or just a big slug of TS winds and rain...

Hmm i think you will be lucky to find any sustain TS force winds overland most if not all should stay over the water.

If that verifies there will be strong TS gusts and maybe very isolated sustained TS near the circulation center on the FL WC/EC or Keys, inland likely not.

[toad strangler]

Hmm i think you will be lucky to find any sustain TS force winds overland most if not all should stay over the water.

EURO doesn't show sustained TS over land only gusts and even those have gone down a good bit in last run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220531/fddc89c814c8450e756873af9742e05f.jpg

Thats sleeping weather lol. Gentle breeze on a weekly base across south florida. I recorded mutiple wind gusts yesterday to near 60 mph in lake worth with a downburst so i have already experienced my TS lol. Those expecting much in the way of wind from this will be greatly disappointed. Rain could be a problem up here in west palm if the euro is right. My cocorahs gauge is waiting.

I haven't seen one post that has alluded to expecting much in the way of big winds for any area. Including the tip of S FL and the Keys. I think we all know it's gonna be a slop fest with possible big rains. But where? Don't know yet. So we track ...

[SFLcane]

EURO doesn't show sustained TS over land only gusts and even those have gone down a good bit in last run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220531/fddc89c814c8450e756873af9742e05f.jpg

Thats sleeping weather lol. Gentle breeze on a weekly base across south florida. I recorded mutiple wind gusts yesterday to near 60 mph in lake worth with a downburst so i have already experienced my TS lol. Those expecting much in the way of wind from this will be greatly disappointed. Rain could be a problem up here in west palm if the euro is right. My cocorahs gauge is waiting.

I haven't seen one post that has alluded to expecting much in the way of big winds for any area. Including the tip of S FL and the Keys. I think we all know it's gonna be a slop fest with possible big rains. But where? Don't know yet. So we track ...

Lets track! we might be tracking something that develops after Florida. EPS this afternoon sure looking that way.

[Nimbus]

Fast moving clouds over the BOC rotating west.
They look lower level than whats on shore and probably sheared, no huge convective burst yet.

[Nuno]

Hmm i think you will be lucky to find any sustain TS force winds overland most if not all should stay over the water.

EURO doesn't show sustained TS over land only gusts and even those have gone down a good bit in last run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220531/fddc89c814c8450e756873af9742e05f.jpg

Thats sleeping weather lol. Gentle breeze on a weekly base across south florida. I recorded mutiple wind gusts yesterday to near 60 mph in lake worth with a downburst so i have already experienced my TS lol. Those expecting much in the way of wind from this will be greatly disappointed. Rain could be a problem up here in west palm if the euro is right. My cocorahs gauge is waiting.

My worry about a storm like this is that an early or front-loaded wet season causes issues with trees in subsequent storms as the ground becomes more saturated. We need a good tropical storm every once in a while to do some light landscaping though

[SFLcane]

Decent TS into SFL on the 12z UKMET.

[skyline385]

And GFS shifts north

[tolakram]

Much better defined as well, or at least more organization earlier.

trend gif

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

[Blown Away]

https://i.postimg.cc/bYSH1jFk/9-A898945-4-F0-B-4-C72-8-D70-89557-A16419-A.gif

999 mb is a strong TS

18z GFS trended N and a bit slower more in line with Euro. The sharp ENE movement from Yucatán through Cuba/Straits seemed extreme. June Climatology says SWFL to Big Bend Florida.

[AtlanticWind]

From NWS

Outlook
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-011800-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
435 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

...Very Heavy Rainfall Possible Across South Florida This Weekend...

The latest long range models are showing an area of low pressure
developing over the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving northeast
across the Florida Peninsula this weekend. This will allow for
deep tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the tropics
with PWAT values getting up into the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range which
is near or at the maximum PWAT values for this time of year.
Therefore, heavy rainfall will be possible this weekend over South
Florida with any showers or thunderstorms that do develop.

The latest long range models are showing rainfall totals between 3
to 7 inches possible across South Florida with locally higher
amounts with any training of showers or thunderstorms this
weekend.

South Florida has also seen between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 4 to 6 inches during the Memorial Day
Weekend. These rainfall totals have allowed for the grounds to
become somewhat saturated over South Florida. So with the
additional rainfall forecast rainfall amounts mention above, this
could lead to some flooding across the region especially where the
higher amounts have fallen last weekend. A Flood Watch may be
needed for portions of South Florida sometime on Thursday if these
forecasted rainfall amounts continue in later forecast model
runs.

Interests across all of South Florida are strongly encouraged to
monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service
in Miami, Florida.

$$

[SFLcane]

Convection on the increase down there.

[Sciencerocks]

Convection forming over the LLC as it moves into the BOC