Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico
by mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of this
week as the larger low complex drifts eastward or northeastward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains will be possible
across southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize
through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[toad strangler]

June basic track climo. Obviously there will be anomalies.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico
by mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of this
week as the larger low complex drifts eastward or northeastward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains will be possible
across southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize
through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

https://i.imgur.com/5KXc4ky.png

Didn't expect them to extend the formation area back into the Bay of Campeche again lol, but makes sense given the more detailed explanation by Papin.

[SFLcane]

90% probability of a TD now.

[blp]

Major disagreement still on this evolution. Euro, Icon hold onto the vorticity of Agatha while GFS and CMC forecast disspation and development of another area NE. Major differences also in the shear forecast. Euro shear could aid development based on orientation more NE while GFS blasts the shear west to east over Florida making it a sheared mess.

[Blown Away]

June basic track climo. Obviously there will be anomalies.

https://i.ibb.co/xGNQWDk/june-1.gif

Sheared TD/TS into @Cedar Key is most likely outcome if Agatha redevelops after crossover.

[CourierPR]

"Sheared TD/TS into @Cedar Key is most likely outcome if Agatha redevelops after crossover."

On what are you basing that forecast?

[skyline385]

0Z ICON aligning with EURO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

0Z ICON aligning with EURO

https://i.imgur.com/Vt8zZAW.png

Icon and Euro taking a Charley track through SW FL and across the peninsula- but as a large tropical storm with modest winds but lots of much needed rain overspreading the southern and central peninsula.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

"Sheared TD/TS into @Cedar Key is most likely outcome if Agatha redevelops after crossover."

On what are you basing that forecast?

Climatology and only a slight shift north in the euro and icon consensus would give that outcome

[toad strangler]

"Sheared TD/TS into @Cedar Key is most likely outcome if Agatha redevelops after crossover."

On what are you basing that forecast?

Climatology and only a slight shift north in the euro and icon consensus would give that outcome

The GFS continues to say no. S of the peninsula and OTS after clipping W Cuba

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[quote="toad strangler"][quote="Tampa

Yup gfs consistently keeps the main low too far south, but does split an LLC off it in the nw Caribbean- which then on the vorticity map meanders it’s way west into the Yucatán lol

[skyline385]

Meanwhile CMC running ahead like GFS

[CourierPR]

"Sheared TD/TS into @Cedar Key is most likely outcome if Agatha redevelops after crossover."

On what are you basing that forecast?

Climatology and only a slight shift north in the euro and icon consensus would give that outcome

The GFS continues to say no. S of the peninsula and OTS after clipping W Cuba

Climatology is not a force in itself.

[psyclone]

WPC has been consistent in keeping the decent QPF confined to south FL...3"+ south of lake O and 5"+ toward Dade & Monroe. Not much for central FL so far. If something does go...one would most likely need to be south and east of the low for respectable sky water...as of now south Florida looks to have the best rain odds

[AtlanticWind]

Euro with strengthening T.S. across central Florida, Faster time frame this run.

[skyline385]

0Z EURO at 1000mb

[caneman]

"Sheared TD/TS into @Cedar Key is most likely outcome if Agatha redevelops after crossover."

On what are you basing that forecast?

Climo I would say.

[caneman]

Climatology and only a slight shift north in the euro and icon consensus would give that outcome

The GFS continues to say no. S of the peninsula and OTS after clipping W Cuba

Climatology is not a force in itself.

Of course not. However, it's an important factor and fair for someone to lean on when making a guess. I'd give it more credence than the GFS south of Florida scenario.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1531220739155709952