Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#221 Postby NDG » Tue May 31, 2022 6:27 pm

According to the GFS and Euro it will turn very stormy across the NW Caribbean waters starting tomorrow morning through Thursday while both vortices possibly consolidate over or near the Yucatan P.
Shear keeps the deepest convection to the east of it, typical early system.

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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#222 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 6:45 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#223 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 31, 2022 6:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Fooey! You beat me to it! :lol:

But either way, it looks like that the Atlantic Hurricane season may start with a BANG!
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#224 Postby zzh » Tue May 31, 2022 7:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Invest coming soon.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#225 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 31, 2022 7:22 pm

Still looks like we'll see something in between the EC & GFS solutions. Sheared mess passing Florida next weekend will likely be named Alex at one point. I'd look for NHC to start PTC advisories on Thursday, perhaps. May be more subtropical than tropical in the Gulf. Exposed LLC with squalls way east of the center. Not a Florida wind threat, just rain. May be strongest after passing Florida. Will be butting up against some very strong westerly wind shear to its north. Because of that, I don't see it being much of an impact to the Carolinas.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#226 Postby ObsessedMiami » Tue May 31, 2022 7:23 pm

zzh wrote:Invest coming soon.


Movin on up to the Active Storms forum and out of the Talking Tropics backwater
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#227 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 7:27 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
zzh wrote:Invest coming soon.


Movin on up to the Active Storms forum and out of the Talking Tropics backwater


When it happens, this thread will close but not yet.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#228 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 8:43 pm

Honestly looks like there wont be much rain as well

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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#229 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 10:05 pm

Decided to check 12Z EPS and was surprised to see such a narrow spread

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Last edited by skyline385 on Tue May 31, 2022 10:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#230 Postby Blown Away » Tue May 31, 2022 10:12 pm

skyline385 wrote:Decided to check 12Z EPS and was surprised to see such a narrow spreadhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/e91ba2fb14b5b0855db4dc3de030f6f9.jpg


Lots of blue 980-999 mb, that’s strong TS range to low end Cat 1.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#231 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 31, 2022 10:21 pm

NDG wrote:
blp wrote:
NDG wrote:Two noticeable vortices this morning, the one from Agatha in southern MX and one over northern Belize.
Might be why the models have different solutions.

https://i.imgur.com/4lfLxly.gif


700mb and 500mb on Agatha still holding up so think it has best chance. I think will pop again once it reaches the BOC.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/467e9e1cb03c56e8dd22e4c03aa28f3625211fb3c6813e0a27a868fd90a7f353.gif

https://i.ibb.co/k0zxDGf/wg8vor3.gif


The Euro focuses on Agatha's vortex while the GFS dissipates it and develops the vortex currently over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.


Good observation and a very logical explation for each model's insistance for future track and intensity. I'd typically bet on GFS's capacity to sniff out smaller meso scale tropical development. On the flip side, Agatha may be super weak but she ain't shallow. That mid level circulation is pretty vigorous (albiet broad). If GFS wins out on a more W. Caribean new development, it'll be a S. Fla soaking Fri and Sat. If Agatha's mid level remains the dominant feature however, I may end up eating my own words as a respectable "moderate" TS potentially takes aim at somewhere between Ft Myers and Tampa.

Hmm, might be an opportune time to drive down to Englewood and snag a bunch of sharks teeth that'll surely wash up on the Manasota Key beaches!
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#232 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 10:24 pm

0Z ICON looks more like a trough than a TS or STS

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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#233 Postby Ian2401 » Tue May 31, 2022 10:48 pm

Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#234 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 31, 2022 10:53 pm

Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run


Huh? As of last glance, the GFS 0Z was only out to 48 hrs. Were you looking at the last post above? That was the ICON.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#235 Postby Ian2401 » Tue May 31, 2022 10:58 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run


Huh? As of last glance, the GFS 0Z was only out to 48 hrs. Were you looking at the last post above? That was the ICON.


Was looking at the 36hr 00z GFS which had a closed low form off the tip of the Yucatan compared to 18z which had it forming much further SE. Not as pronounced of a shift now at 66hr loaded in but still noticeably more N and faster than the 18z run. With the storm likely to be as heavily sheared as it is, how N the storm gets up the FL peninsula will matter a lot.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#236 Postby blp » Tue May 31, 2022 11:00 pm

Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run


Yes, this run is much stronger and much more consolidated..
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#237 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 31, 2022 11:04 pm

Jeeez, what a flurry of last minute entries into the '22 Atlantic Season poll :sled: Might actually break a hundred participants. I guess some throw their hat in the ring for the passion, and for others it's all about the bragging rights. For me...... I'm all about winning the million dollars baby :cheesy:
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#238 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 11:07 pm

blp wrote:
Ian2401 wrote:Big jump NW on the 00z GFS run


Yes, this run is much stronger and much more consolidated..


Ended up being weaker than 18Z, I am beginning to doubt if we will even see a TS at this rate :D
Lots of models have backtracked on intensities in the last few runs.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#239 Postby Grifforzer » Tue May 31, 2022 11:11 pm

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC WED JUN 01 2022

42 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW PRES POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INLAND NEAR 20N 88W 1006 MB.
48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND NEAR 21N 88W 1005 MB.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#240 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:14 am

Should be an Invest shortly. Now 50%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula
is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression by the weekend as it moves northeastward into
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and
crosses the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of
days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the
Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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