Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

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SFLcane
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#181 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 31, 2022 12:38 pm

Someone is not buying the GFS... :eek:
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#182 Postby psyclone » Tue May 31, 2022 12:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:One model away from potential beach weather across South Florida. Those rainfall totals will be drastically less if the GFS is correct.


One step north and much more of Florida partakes in heavy rain.
One step south and it misses the entire state.
There's likely to be a sharp cutoff so where that ends up is important to sensible wx.
Early season sheared systems rarely end up as a gradient wind threat. they tend to be potential rain bombs with a secondary svr wx risk. they're often more benefit than detriment.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#183 Postby Nuno » Tue May 31, 2022 12:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:Someone is not buying the GFS... :eek:


The GFS is still kinda the outlier here (though the differences are narrowing with each run). We have to see if Agatha's remnant LLC survives into the Bay of Campeche.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#184 Postby Blown Away » Tue May 31, 2022 12:49 pm

Image

Image

It would appear based on the NHC 5 day graphic they are not leaning towards the GFS 12z, which has the low outside their projected area of movement at 90 hrs.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#185 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 31, 2022 1:16 pm

12z Euro begins to cave.

Its june folks. Florida could use some rain
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#186 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 31, 2022 1:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:12z Euro begins to cave.


Wait, you just posted it wasn't budging :D
Kinda feels like we are in Spring Training with this haha
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#187 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue May 31, 2022 1:21 pm

ECMWF (12z) does seem to be a lot less agressive than this morning with at +83h a minimum pressure of "only" 1001 mb (this morning it was 996 mb). However, in terms of location and general development still very different from GFS. Still a lot more to the north as well as a more distinct circulation.
Last edited by Jelmergraaff on Tue May 31, 2022 1:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#188 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 31, 2022 1:22 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:12z Euro begins to cave.


Wait, you just posted it wasn't budging :D
Kinda feels like we are in Spring Training with this haha


Yea compared to 00Z its Broader and sloppier. Lots of moisture transport though wheather thats over water is tricky
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#189 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 31, 2022 1:23 pm

SFLcane wrote:12z Euro begins to cave.

Wouldn't really call it a "cave" per se, it's not as organized as 00z but it's still radically different than the GFS.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#190 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 1:25 pm

EURO not backing off

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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#191 Postby jlauderdal » Tue May 31, 2022 1:26 pm

Jelmergraaff wrote:ECMWF (12z) does seem to be a lot less agressive than this morning with at +83h a minimum pressure of "only" 1001 mb (this morning it was 996 mb). However, in terms of location and general development still very different from GFS. Still a lot more to the north as well as a more distinct circulation.
The two models see things differently for sure, NHC seems to be leaning towards gfs. Very odd to have everyone but central and south Floridians out of the game at the start of the season but here we are on May 31. Usually, it's mid to end of October when Floridians are the last ones standing.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#192 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue May 31, 2022 1:28 pm



It is a lot less strong (in terms of organisation/wind) compared to this morning, but rather similar in terms of track/region of development. No switch to GFS whatsoever, but definitely not as extreme as this morning.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#193 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 1:29 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Jelmergraaff wrote:ECMWF (12z) does seem to be a lot less agressive than this morning with at +83h a minimum pressure of "only" 1001 mb (this morning it was 996 mb). However, in terms of location and general development still very different from GFS. Still a lot more to the north as well as a more distinct circulation.
The two models see things differently for sure, NHC seems to be leaning towards gfs. Very odd to have everyone but central and south Floridians out of the game at the start of the season but here we are on May 31. Usually, it's mid to end of October when Floridians are the last ones standing.

NHC is leaning towards a blend of all models. The GFS misses SFL whereas the NHC cone is currently aimed at SFL.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#194 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 31, 2022 1:29 pm



It takes longer to get organized this run. Not surprising at all. Very sloppy sheared system. Likely gets named over the bahamas maybe
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#195 Postby AJC3 » Tue May 31, 2022 1:31 pm

The lowering of surface pressures in this area will be largely caused by baroclinic/dynamic (i.e. non-tropical) forcing. Dave Tolleris ("WxRisk") uses BI (baroclincally initiated) or BE (baroclincally enhanced) to describe these kinds of systems in the subtropics, and I like to use these terms as well. So, in this case, what I'd suggest is to "follow the forcing". Look closely at where your main swath of upward vertical motion (via mid level/H50 PVA and upper level/H25 divergence) develops and tracks. Your most intense convective blowups are going to occur beneath this forcing, and that's where you're going to see one or more (transient?) LL vort centers form. These will likely be embedded within a larger, elonagted trough of low pressure.

As has been already said in this thread and elsewhere, all signs point to this being a sloppy, highly sheared, right-sided BI/BE low.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#196 Postby galaxy401 » Tue May 31, 2022 1:51 pm

That is really unique seeing two distinct circulations in the same region. Seems the main models are split on which will be the dominate one but NHC thinks it will be ex-Agatha.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#197 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue May 31, 2022 1:56 pm

galaxy401 wrote:That is really unique seeing two distinct circulations in the same region. Seems the main models are split on which will be the dominate one but NHC thinks it will be ex-Agatha.


Which would mean they prefer the ECMWF solution. That's probably also why the "cone" for the region of development is directed towards South Florida rather than further south like GFS is showing.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#198 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue May 31, 2022 2:12 pm

Probably within 6 hours of moving over the BOC.
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#199 Postby Blown Away » Tue May 31, 2022 2:26 pm



Image

12z Euro basically the same as 00z. Still call for 40-67 mph gusts along the Florida WC, EC, and Keys...

As usual the Euro leans L which is Central Florida crossover and GFS is R and stays S of Peninsula... Likely somewhere in the middle is correct, but will there really be a center or just a big slug of TS winds and rain...
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Re: Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development

#200 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 31, 2022 2:36 pm

Blown Away wrote:


https://i.imgur.com/q8aE9YD.jpg

12z Euro basically the same as 00z. Still call for 40-67 mph gusts along the Florida WC, EC, and Keys...

As usual the Euro leans L which is Central Florida crossover and GFS is R and stays S of Peninsula... Likely somewhere in the middle is correct, but will there really be a center or just a big slug of TS winds and rain...


Hmm i think you will be lucky to find any sustain TS force winds overland most if not all should stay over the water.
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