Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[jlauderdal]

Euro is consistent. GFS is too though. One of them is gonna take an L here for sure

https://i.postimg.cc/Mp8YgqCJ/euro.gif

GFS had the system left behind and has now come around with the NE idea and now southerly route, seems reasonable now, euro looks overcooked...straits to Naples as a weak TS(maybe). We will absorb its best punch

[cycloneye]

The squadron will be ready for thursday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT TUE 31 MAY 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
EAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19.0N 86.5W FOR 02/1830Z.

[blp]

Two noticeable vortices this morning, the one from Agatha in southern MX and one over northern Belize.
Might be why the models have different solutions.

https://i.imgur.com/4lfLxly.gif

700mb and 500mb on Agatha still holding up so think it has best chance. I think will pop again once it reaches the BOC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I suspect the gfs is off because it develops spurious vortices and has them competing- while euro appears to show low level vorticity forming and incorporating moisture from agatha- baroclinic shear enhancement would spread rain and squalls out not only east and southeast of center but also Northeast of the center making the euro precip solution more plausible.
Recall Hurricane Gabrielle 2001 which in the face of shear underwent baroclinic enhancement g0ing from a 40 mph TS to a 70 mph TS in less than 12 hours and making landfall on the SW coast of Florida as a 70 mph storm bringing storm surge into fort myers and charlotte harbor. Similar to Gabrielle- Baroclinic enhancement due to the jet and trough diving south into the gulf would promote squally weather even north of the center. Also- future alex will move over the loop current- just as gabrielle did- so some strengthening to a moderate tropical storm is reasonable- now Gabrielle was in September, So I dont think future alex (it being june) will intensify quite as rapidly, as it has more unfavorable shear to contend with when one compares the developing shear profile to what we had with gabrielle.

Looking at water vapor- we should watch for the strong induction of shear/dry air diving down into the West-Central Gulf- tending to try to force future alex to become more subtropical, with the net effect being a heavily east weighted cyclone with some thick bands east of the center and dry to the west of center.

[Blown Away]

[ouragans]

The squadron will be ready for thursday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT TUE 31 MAY 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
EAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19.0N 86.5W FOR 02/1830Z.

This position is SSE of Cozumel, Mexico. That would mean a NE-bound track from the actual position of the remnants

[Iceresistance]

It does look like the Wind Shear is going to be an issue for the upcoming system (Alex?), but still could produce very heavy rainfall for Jamaica, Cuba, The Bahamas, and Florida. (WPC has up to 10 inches of Rain near Miami, FL)


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/wg8shr.gif

The remnants of Agatha are located at the SW corner of the image

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1531659327857168384

[NDG]

Two noticeable vortices this morning, the one from Agatha in southern MX and one over northern Belize.
Might be why the models have different solutions.

https://i.imgur.com/4lfLxly.gif

700mb and 500mb on Agatha still holding up so think it has best chance. I think will pop again once it reaches the BOC.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/467e9e1cb03c56e8dd22e4c03aa28f3625211fb3c6813e0a27a868fd90a7f353.gif

https://i.ibb.co/k0zxDGf/wg8vor3.gif

The Euro focuses on Agatha's vortex while the GFS dissipates it and develops the vortex currently over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

[psyclone]

It's amazing how often an early season system jump starts our rainy season. This might be another example. I'm hoping for some rain up this way. we are crunchy dry here.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1531678085522890753

[Jr0d]

I figure this will be tagged as in Invest as soon as the low center remnants make back over water which may only be a few hours away. Looks like the center of Agatha has remained intact and could very well restrengthen when it energies in the BoC

I was told the NHC has the option of keeping the EPAC name with a crossover situation, which is a change from a decade ago they could in theory keep this storm named Agatha...I figure this might be a good idea to 'save' a name since we have another active season forecast and could go through the list(again).

Obviously if the area of interest develops a center elsewhere, ie further east it will be named Alex.

Going to be interesting to see what the NHC does as the visible satellite shows Agatha's LLC is about to make the crossover intact.

[Jelmergraaff]

I figure this will be tagged as in Invest as soon as the low center remnants make back over water which may only be a few hours away. Looks like the center of Agatha has remained intact abd could very well restrengthen when it energies in the BoC

I was told the NHC has the option of keeping the EPAC name with a crossover situation, which is a change from a decade ago they could in theory keep this storm named Agatha...I figure this might be a good idea to 'save' a name since we have another active season forecast and could go through the list(again).

Obviously if the area of interest develops a center elsewhere, ie further east it will be named Alex.

Going to be interesting to see what the NHC does as the visible satellite shows Agatha's LLC is about to make the crossover intact.

I believe in order for a system to keep the same name when going from the Pacific to Atlantic, it still needs to be named (so a tropical depression/storm/hurricane) the moment it reaches the other side. However, the NHC already downgraded Agatha to "remnants", so according to them it's not a tropical system anymore. At least, not with a closed circulation (then would probably have been a depression).

[toad strangler]

I figure this will be tagged as in Invest as soon as the low center remnants make back over water which may only be a few hours away. Looks like the center of Agatha has remained intact and could very well restrengthen when it energies in the BoC

I was told the NHC has the option of keeping the EPAC name with a crossover situation, which is a change from a decade ago they could in theory keep this storm named Agatha...I figure this might be a good idea to 'save' a name since we have another active season forecast and could go through the list(again).

Obviously if the area of interest develops a center elsewhere, ie further east it will be named Alex.

Going to be interesting to see what the NHC does as the visible satellite shows Agatha's LLC is about to make the crossover intact.

Agatha circulation seems to be splitting the narrowest part of terra firma possible in said cross over. Interesting. We shall see....

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1531681378454032384



 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1531681392282587136



 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1531681397190012928

[cane5]

My concern is there is little historical data on a storm this early not coming up from the Caribbean instead coming out of the Yucatán, that alone seizes my interest along with not needing to have to deal with a storm.

[SFLcane]

One model away from potential beach weather across South Florida. Those rainfall totals will be drastically less if the GFS is correct.

[cycloneye]

70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the
eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area,
this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it
moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize
during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

[Jelmergraaff]

70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the
eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area,
this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it
moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize
during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

Not really surprised to be honest. Almost all weather models are showing a closed circulation at one point in the coming week. However, I figure the chances for it to become a tropical storm are a lot lower, see for example GFS/ICON. These models do develop a closed circulation but due to high windshear they're not showing too much development (at the earliest after it's passed Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean).

[AutoPenalti]

GFS solution is plausible. But something to think about is that it's favoring the mid-level circulation in the Yucatan. Looks like the actual circulation may narrowly miss the higher terrain keeping it intact once over water.