Will the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season be a backloaded one?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 31, 2022 10:50 am

Simple poll question about being active in the last 3 months of the season and voting will close on June 15 at 11:50 AM EDT. Apart from voting, anyone can post comments about this topic.

skyline385 · #2 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 31, 2022 11:07 am

I think if we are transitioning away from La Nina towards October, then that may limit late season activity. I checked 1975, 2000 and 2011 which were transition years after strong La Nina years and they were all lacking in October.

SteveM · #3 Postby **SteveM** » Tue May 31, 2022 11:45 am

I think it's probably too tricky to predict at this point. If the Nina persists then sure, but there's also no reason to think we won't face significant early season activity too.

aspen · #4 Postby **aspen** » Tue May 31, 2022 4:54 pm

It’s impossible to predict how much of a backloaded season we’ll have, if at all. Just look at 2020 and 2021. Both were moderate Nina years with a very favorable background state, but 2021 was dead for nearly a month while 2020 pumped out 5 majors, two of which were close to being (or might have been) Cat 5s. There are so many factors that’ll go in to late season activity this year.

FireRat · #5 Postby **FireRat** » Tue May 31, 2022 5:14 pm

I have a hunch this year could be backloaded especially in the sense that perhaps the season's biggest storms will occur September thru October and even into early November. This is just a hunch, nothing more. Lets see what happens :wink:

Category5Kaiju · #6 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Tue May 31, 2022 5:18 pm

Clarification question: backloaded in terms of the major hurricanes or in terms of NS count in general? Like 2020 (slow burn with NS popping up consistently from start to finish, but with the vast majority of majors in October and November)?

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 31, 2022 5:22 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Clarification question: backloaded in terms of the major hurricanes or in terms of NS count in general? Like 2020 (slow burn with NS popping up consistently from start to finish, but with the vast majority of majors in October and November)?

NS count In general.

AlphaToOmega · #8 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Tue May 31, 2022 5:41 pm

My analogs for this year (2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020) would suggest a back-loaded season:

2001: 7/5/2 for OND
2005: 11/5/2 for OND
2010: 5/5/0 for OND
2020: 7/6/5 for OND

All of these featured > 5 storms during OND, > 5 hurricanes during OND, and (with the exception of 2010) > 2 major hurricanes during OND. Given that the La Niña is expected to persist and that an Atlantic Niño is not expected to be present, I think a back-loaded season is favored as of now.