Surface trough NE of the Bahamas (Is Invest 92L)

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galaxy401
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Surface trough NE of the Bahamas (Is Invest 92L)

#1 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:17 am

First outlook of the season and there's a new area. I believe a couple models showed some central Atlantic low. Will probably be involved steering potential future Alex. Unlikely to development but worth a discussion nonetheless.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:

A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the
central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it
interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are
currently high across the area, and significant development of this
system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward
over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#2 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:50 am

Here's a 2 hour loop of it using GOES-16 Snow/Ice band to show movement of the different layers of clouds.

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Re: Trough near Bahamas

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:44 pm

Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the
northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity.
Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and
significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves
generally east-northeastward over the next several days away from
the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Surface trough NE of the Bahamas

#4 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Jun 02, 2022 10:58 am

Just looking on the NAM 3k model todays 12z model run about 91L and it shows a 40-50 knot winds in the circulation at 16z. Had a look at the GOES-16 ( https://col.st/oEihi ) and i'm like hmm



Image
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