Obviously we got extremely close to using the new naming list last year (then the basin just suddenly and unexpectedly shut down) and would have used the list in 2020 if Greeks were abandoned earlier. With that being said and with the predicted high level of activity this year, do you think this year will have a chance of hitting at least Adria and follow the +20 NS pattern seen the last two La Nina years? Or do you think this year may be more of a 2004/2017-esque year in which ACE count is high but the season is highly quality-oriented (so NS count isn't extremely impressive and in the middle 10s)? Or better yet, do you think this year will barely miss the 22 NS mark (ending with 19-21 NSs or so)?
Feel free to share any reasoning and explanations behind whatever your answer is!
Will the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Have to Use the Auxiliary Naming List?
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Category5Kaiju
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Will the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Have to Use the Auxiliary Naming List?
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: Will the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Have to Use the Auxiliary Naming List?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Obviously we got extremely close to using the new naming list last year (then the basin just suddenly and unexpectedly shut down) and would have used the list in 2020 if Greeks were abandoned earlier. With that being said and with the predicted high level of activity this year, do you think this year will have a chance of hitting at least Adria and follow the +20 NS pattern seen the last two La Nina years? Or do you think this year may be more of a 2004/2017-esque year in which ACE count is high but the season is highly quality-oriented (so NS count isn't extremely impressive and in the middle 10s)? Or better yet, do you think this year will barely miss the 22 NS mark (ending with 19-21 NSs or so)?
Feel free to share any reasoning and explanations behind whatever your answer is!
Given that my analogs point to a western-based season and given the fact that quality-over-quantity seasons tend to be MDR-based, I am going to say that exhausting all 21 names on the main list is favored (I am not going to officially declare it one way or the other because it is too early to tell).
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Re: Will the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Have to Use the Auxiliary Naming List?
It is a tricky guess, but my hunch is that we'll get very close, to about the V storm, and there could be some big ones in the latter alphabet. This would mean that the chances of having to use the auxiliary list are non-zero and maybe more in the order of 25%
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