What would a 200kt (1-min sustained) TC look like?

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Foxfires
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What would a 200kt (1-min sustained) TC look like?

#1 Postby Foxfires » Tue Jun 07, 2022 7:24 am

This felt like more of a discussion topic so I'm putting it here because there may not be any kind of definitive answer to it. I will say that this may have some simple answer and I'm just not smart enough to figure it out but if that's not the case then here's the discussion topic:

I've seen a number of people look at some storms and say they have perfect structures and look on IR and whatnot. Many people say these are contenders for the most intense tropical cyclone on record. If an estimate is given, it will likely be 185kt. So that made me wonder, if that's perfect, what's beyond perfect?

What would a 200kt storm look like? Would it look better than, say, Patricia? Could it look better? Without aircraft recon, would we be able to notice that the storm was clearly much more powerful than anything on record? And even if people did notice, would they say it was 200kt? Would they even think it was 200kt? 15kt is a significant jump in intensity from 185kt, with a pressure likely in the 850s-840s range, and for a difference between say, 140kt and 155kt, it's probably pretty noticeable, but I don't think it would be the same for 185kt vs 200kt.

Now I do realize that this kind of storm might not even be possible with Earth's current climate, but it's still a curiosity.
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Re: What would a 200kt (1-min sustained) TC look like?

#2 Postby tolakram » Tue Jun 07, 2022 7:33 am

Knots? 200 kts = 230 mph (* 1.151 to convert).

a 200 mph storm = 173 kts

I don't think what you are saying is possible though I don't understand the atmospheric limits. My guess is a 200? storm would look exactly like a 185? storm, maybe with higher cloud tops.
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Re: What would a 200kt storm look like?

#3 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 07, 2022 7:35 am

Foxfires wrote:This felt like more of a discussion topic so I'm putting it here because there may not be any kind of definitive answer to it. I will say that this may have some simple answer and I'm just not smart enough to figure it out but if that's not the case then here's the discussion topic:

I've seen a number of people look at some storms and say they have perfect structures and look on IR and whatnot. Many people say these are contenders for the most intense tropical cyclone on record. If an estimate is given, it will likely be 185kt. So that made me wonder, if that's perfect, what's beyond perfect?

What would a 200kt storm look like? Would it look better than, say, Patricia? Could it look better? Without aircraft recon, would we be able to notice that the storm was clearly much more powerful than anything on record? And even if people did notice, would they say it was 200kt? Would they even think it was 200kt? 15kt is a significant jump in intensity from 185kt, with a pressure likely in the 850s-840s range, and for a difference between say, 140kt and 155kt, it's probably pretty noticeable, but I don't think it would be the same for 185kt vs 200kt.

Now I do realize that this kind of storm might not even be possible with Earth's current climate, but it's still a curiosity.

I would expect a large storm. It would be tall enough to reach into the stratosphere and would have a pressure around 850mb. Waters would need to be around 34+C. The clouds would be so high up they would be warmer than the surrounding outflow. This is because the stratosphere is warmer than the troposphere. The storm would wreck our ozone layers most likely. It would devastate inland communities and erase communities like a 20 mile wide EF5 tornado moved through. Not many people would die directly because they would evacuate en mass. However, many would likely die from car crashes from people fleeing the storm. Storm surge could be anywhere from 30 ft to 50ft depending on the landfall location and size of the storm. The system itself would remain a Cat 5 well past landfall due to it bringing water in with it as well as having a while to fall below Cat 5 status (60 knots to be precise). It would be devastating for many miles inland. It would likely remain a hurricane for at least a day past landfall, maybe even two. Yeah, let’s hope that never happens lol.
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What would a 200kt (1-min sustained) TC look like?

#4 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 07, 2022 8:26 am

Uhh, it would look like Patricia?
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Re: What would a 200kt (1-min sustained) TC look like?

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:01 am

Image

Image

Probably would look something like these
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Re: What would a 200kt (1-min sustained) TC look like?

#6 Postby Fancy1001 » Thu Jun 09, 2022 8:07 pm

tolakram wrote:Knots? 200 kts = 230 mph (* 1.151 to convert).

a 200 mph storm = 173 kts

I don't think what you are saying is possible though I don't understand the atmospheric limits. My guess is a 200? storm would look exactly like a 185? storm, maybe with higher cloud tops.

Patrica reached 215 mph in the eastern Pacific, so I'd say that 230 mph is definitely possible. It would most likely need to be a storm in the western pacific under extremely favorable conditions for nearly its entire life cycle. We've seen plenty of west pacific monsters that were almost certainly more powerful than officially recorded due to lack of recon.
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