Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

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skyline385
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#41 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:09 pm

FWIW, Floyd was largest evacuation at that time. Now it’s fourth behind Irma, Gustav and Rita.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#42 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:09 pm

skyline385 wrote:FWIW, Floyd was largest evacuation at that time. Now it’s fourth behind Irma, Gustav and Rita.


Not according to Wikipedia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... he%20storm.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#43 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm

jasons2k wrote:
skyline385 wrote:FWIW, Floyd was largest evacuation at that time. Now it’s fourth behind Irma, Gustav and Rita.


Not according to Wikipedia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... he%20storm.

Guessing that article isn’t updated

Image
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#44 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:29 pm

skyline385 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:
skyline385 wrote:FWIW, Floyd was largest evacuation at that time. Now it’s fourth behind Irma, Gustav and Rita.


Not according to Wikipedia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... he%20storm.

Guessing that article isn’t updated


That quote on the Floyd page isn't cited. I don't think it's accurate and anyone could have written that. I've never seen that anywhere else.
When you go to the page for Gustav, the numbers are lower than the numbers for Floyd, consistent with the Evacuations list page.
Irma takes the cake with close to 7 million, almost double the size of the Rita evacuation (depending on which Rita numbers you believe).
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#45 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:10 pm

If it is ok to include longer-range modeling, I would suggest that almost much every season since about 2016 has featured some sort of major downplaying for the season around mid-July to mid-August. Seasonal forecasts tend to trend downward because of the typical unfavorable conditions in the basin during this timeframe. This has led to major problems detecting significant storms such as Harvey, Florence, Dorian, Laura, etc. Just my opinion, but I think that the earlier seasonal forecasts by models in June tend to be closer to reality.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#46 Postby al78 » Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:45 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:If it is ok to include longer-range modeling, I would suggest that almost much every season since about 2016 has featured some sort of major downplaying for the season around mid-July to mid-August. Seasonal forecasts tend to trend downward because of the typical unfavorable conditions in the basin during this timeframe. This has led to major problems detecting significant storms such as Harvey, Florence, Dorian, Laura, etc. Just my opinion, but I think that the earlier seasonal forecasts by models in June tend to be closer to reality.


Seasonal forecasting is completely different to forecasting individual storms. All seasonal forecasts can do is predict whether the season as a whole will be active, inactive or near-normal. They say nothing about the intra-seasonal variability.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#47 Postby 115MphAgatha » Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:29 am

PTC 4, Danielle, Earl and Kay have all underperformed NHC and model forecasts. 4 didn't even become a TC at all, Danielle fell below the forecast C2 intensity, Earl wound up busting by a whopping 2 categories in NHC forecasts (mid-C2 for a forecast-to-be-C4) and Kay, instead of becoming a major (as was shown by models and NHC), instead became a large C2 that doesn't seem to have done anything notable in Baja.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#48 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:19 am

115MphAgatha wrote:PTC 4, Danielle, Earl and Kay have all underperformed NHC and model forecasts. 4 didn't even become a TC at all, Danielle fell below the forecast C2 intensity, Earl wound up busting by a whopping 2 categories in NHC forecasts (mid-C2 for a forecast-to-be-C4) and Kay, instead of becoming a major (as was shown by models and NHC), instead became a large C2 that doesn't seem to have done anything notable in Baja.

No models really developed PTC4 though. As for Earl, I think most models got the pressure close, just that they didn't expect Earl to grow in size instead of intensifying.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#49 Postby MarioProtVI » Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:53 am

115MphAgatha wrote:PTC 4, Danielle, Earl and Kay have all underperformed NHC and model forecasts. 4 didn't even become a TC at all, Danielle fell below the forecast C2 intensity, Earl wound up busting by a whopping 2 categories in NHC forecasts (mid-C2 for a forecast-to-be-C4) and Kay, instead of becoming a major (as was shown by models and NHC), instead became a large C2 that doesn't seem to have done anything notable in Baja.

Everything in the Atlantic except for Colin underperformed; Alex took forever to form when initially forecasted to form before landfall in Florida - it did so way afterwards and nearing ET transition in Atlantic and Bonnie also took way longer then expected to form (initially forecasted to do so near Windwards/Leewards, only did so when it was near Nicaragua and was even forecasted to be a hurricane or very close to one at one point).
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#50 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:00 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
115MphAgatha wrote:PTC 4, Danielle, Earl and Kay have all underperformed NHC and model forecasts. 4 didn't even become a TC at all, Danielle fell below the forecast C2 intensity, Earl wound up busting by a whopping 2 categories in NHC forecasts (mid-C2 for a forecast-to-be-C4) and Kay, instead of becoming a major (as was shown by models and NHC), instead became a large C2 that doesn't seem to have done anything notable in Baja.

Everything in the Atlantic except for Colin underperformed; Alex took forever to form when initially forecasted to form before landfall in Florida - it did so way afterwards and nearing ET transition in Atlantic and Bonnie also took way longer then expected to form (initially forecasted to do so near Windwards/Leewards, only did so when it was near Nicaragua and was even forecasted to be a hurricane or very close to one at one point).


I really don't see how Alex underperformed--it nearly reached hurricane intensity while in the Atlantic

PTC 4 didn't underperform--it had literally zero model support (in fact NHC noted this in the discussions) but watches/warnings were issued as the convective pattern meant it was not out of the question for something to spin up in too short of time to get warnings out.

Interestingly none of the hurricane-zoom versions of the globals showed Earl reaching major, at least not within the last 3-4 days.
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Re: Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

#51 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Sep 18, 2022 2:51 pm

Add Fiona to the list but for the opposite reasons: GFS and Euro had it as a weak area of vorticity near the Antilles up to 12-18 hours before formation whereas it is a strengthening/probably-RIing-soon 75-80 kt hurricane crossing extreme SW Puerto Rico.
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