skyline385 wrote:Probably can add PTC2 2022 to this list, all the models were so bullish on it. The EURO at one point had a major in play and so many EPS and GEFS members were on board, meanwhile it’s still missing an LLC.
Probably one of the biggest model busts of the last decade because it took the southernmost possible track, when the vast majority of ensemble members and model runs kept it north enough to develop as early as the Lesser Antilles. Between this and Elsa, it is becoming even more remarkable that Emily ‘05 was ever able to become a July Caribbean Cruiser; seems like it is very difficult for steering patterns to be just right to allow such a track that doesn’t get the system tangled up in the Greater Antilles or South America.
The only Atlantic storm that took so long to become anything that I can recall is Hermine ‘16. I wasn’t on s2k back then, but didn’t it spend over a week as an invest? I can now probably understand the boredom and annoyance here during Hermine’s development.