Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?

[cycloneye]

Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.

[captainbarbossa19]

Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.

Are we talking about for all/majority of 2023 or just JFM 2023?

[cycloneye]

Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.

Are we talking about for all/majority of 2023 or just JFM 2023?

All year long. Fixed the title.

[captainbarbossa19]

Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.

Are we talking about for all/majority of 2023 or just JFM 2023?

All year long. Fixed the title.

Ok. I would say maybe for JFM, but after that I highly doubt La Niña will be around. The last longest period for negative ENSO was from 1998-2001. It started in JJA 1998 and then ended in FMA 2001. I believe Kingarabian said that there has never been a fourth-year La Niña observed to date, so I see no reason to believe that we will have a fourth year event now.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The subsurface warm pool has to surface someday, and I'm betting the warmth piled up against Indonesia thanks to the -IOD will eventually begin to leak over into the Pacific over the winter. Plus a quadruple-dip Niña is unprecedented yeah. As a result I'm inclined to believe an El Niño will develop next year. As for the strength/type, that is TBD, as it is way too soon to even consider.

[InfernoFlameCat]

La Niña for another year, cuz why not?

[Ntxw]

If looking from an equatorial lens only I'd say El Nino. ENSO is self terminal.

However, some other aspects are at play especially in the subtropical and higher latitudes. We have entered a deep -PDO, which in the past have negated +ENSO regardless of the equatorial state. It has caused Nino head-fakes before, also what role Hunga-Tonga's preliminary VEI-6 eruption in January has in the South Pacific is unknown. I'd say an attempt at a Nino or warm-neutral but stunted by the -PDO regime. A stable La Nina in 2023 would be lowest probability in my opinion.

[Stormybajan]

Im fairly confident with a Nino next year. That WPAC warm pool will definitely surface in the next 6-12 months

PLUS we are due a below average season

[Yellow Evan]

Way too early to really say.