Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139049
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- captainbarbossa19
- Category 5
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
Re: Will La Niña be up in 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
cycloneye wrote:Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.
Are we talking about for all/majority of 2023 or just JFM 2023?
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139049
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Will La Niña be up in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
captainbarbossa19 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.
Are we talking about for all/majority of 2023 or just JFM 2023?
All year long. Fixed the title.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- captainbarbossa19
- Category 5
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
Re: Will La Niña be up in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
cycloneye wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Will it be the 4th year in a row having La Niña? Or you think Neutral or El Niño will be up? This poll will close for voting on June 30 at 1:32 PM EDT.
Are we talking about for all/majority of 2023 or just JFM 2023?
All year long. Fixed the title.
Ok. I would say maybe for JFM, but after that I highly doubt La Niña will be around. The last longest period for negative ENSO was from 1998-2001. It started in JJA 1998 and then ended in FMA 2001. I believe Kingarabian said that there has never been a fourth-year La Niña observed to date, so I see no reason to believe that we will have a fourth year event now.
2 likes
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 694
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
The subsurface warm pool has to surface someday, and I'm betting the warmth piled up against Indonesia thanks to the -IOD will eventually begin to leak over into the Pacific over the winter. Plus a quadruple-dip Niña is unprecedented yeah. As a result I'm inclined to believe an El Niño will develop next year. As for the strength/type, that is TBD, as it is way too soon to even consider.
1 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
La Niña for another year, cuz why not?
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
If looking from an equatorial lens only I'd say El Nino. ENSO is self terminal.
However, some other aspects are at play especially in the subtropical and higher latitudes. We have entered a deep -PDO, which in the past have negated +ENSO regardless of the equatorial state. It has caused Nino head-fakes before, also what role Hunga-Tonga's preliminary VEI-6 eruption in January has in the South Pacific is unknown. I'd say an attempt at a Nino or warm-neutral but stunted by the -PDO regime. A stable La Nina in 2023 would be lowest probability in my opinion.
However, some other aspects are at play especially in the subtropical and higher latitudes. We have entered a deep -PDO, which in the past have negated +ENSO regardless of the equatorial state. It has caused Nino head-fakes before, also what role Hunga-Tonga's preliminary VEI-6 eruption in January has in the South Pacific is unknown. I'd say an attempt at a Nino or warm-neutral but stunted by the -PDO regime. A stable La Nina in 2023 would be lowest probability in my opinion.
5 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Stormybajan
- Category 1
- Posts: 428
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
- Location: Windward Islands
Re: Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
Im fairly confident with a Nino next year. That WPAC warm pool will definitely surface in the next 6-12 months
PLUS we are due a below average season
PLUS we are due a below average season
1 likes
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: Will La Niña be up again in all of 2023? Or Neutral / El Niño come?
Way too early to really say.
2 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 81 guests