Interesting Little Feature Northern GOM

[tropicwatch]

Noticed this morning convection and some 925mb vorticity in the northern Gulf of Mexico. It appears to be drifting south and possibly detaching from the latest front. The upper level conditions appear to be favorable. Could be the beginning of a home grown system if it persists. Something to watch.

925mb Vorticity
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

Wind shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Convection
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband13.html

[Gums]

Salute!

Yeah, I agree. Guess we Panhandle folks pay more attention to the Gulf as it heats up earlier than the Atlantic, maybe faster than the Caribb. Normally, we see the phenomena in fall when a front stalls out, huh?

Gums sends...

[cycloneye]

[underthwx]

I too noticed this earlier this morning. This time of year, these features bear watching. Is this area the tail end of a front?

[tropicwatch]

I too noticed this earlier this morning. This time of year, these features bear watching. Is this area the tail end of a front?

I believe so.

[tropicwatch]

Convection is increasing now to watch for pressure drops.

[MHC Tracking]

Currently, not even the mesoscale models are picking up on this. We'll have to see if a response is shown at the 18z cycle.

[TallyTracker]

I’ve seen quick spin up tropical storms from systems like this with little to no warning on occasion. Definitely something to keep an eye on though I doubt it will become more than a rain-maker for the northern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula.

Emily 2017 is a recent one. Went to work in the Tampa Area on a rainy day with little chance of development. By 9 am, a tropical storm was declared heading straight for me. Landfall occurred before noon as a 60 mph TS. Normally being under a TS Warning would have been a day off but it spun up so fast, my organization’s leadership had no time to react. By the time I went home Emily was a TD.

[ChrisH-UK]

Used GOES-16 Snow/Ice Band to have a look at this system> The white clouds are low level clouds and the grey clouds are higher clouds, well they does seem to be rotations in the system, one is seen on the northern edge and they seem to be a larger rotation over all.

Source for those who want a closer look - https://col.st/IrxxN

[skyline385]

There's a tiny low level rotation feature around 86W and 29N

[Aric Dunn]

crossing over a bouy. it is a small mesovort but it is at the surface. pressure looks to be 1010 mb with background pressures elsewhere around 1014 to 1015.

Only needs to fire convection over that vort and it could spin up quick. though once off the SE coast it might have a better shot.

It could also stall in the NE gulf if it does pop some convection.

[Nederlander]

I’ve seen quick spin up tropical storms from systems like this with little to no warning on occasion. Definitely something to keep an eye on though I doubt it will become more than a rain-maker for the northern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula.

Emily 2017 is a recent one. Went to work in the Tampa Area on a rainy day with little chance of development. By 9 am, a tropical storm was declared heading straight for me. Landfall occurred before noon as a 60 mph TS. Normally being under a TS Warning would have been a day off but it spun up so fast, my organization’s leadership had no time to react. By the time I went home Emily was a TD.

Humberto - 2007 for me. Came out of nowhere. It went from disorganized convection from a front to a 90mph hurricane in about 24 hours. Crazy..

[StPeteMike]

I believe this is the feature GFS showed a potential of spinning up off the Carolinas, though seems to have dropped the possibility.

[tropicwatch]

Pressures do appear to be falling.

[rolltide]

I'm watching an area about 150 or so miles due south of Mobile. With the vortex that it spit out the the northeast it seems like a new area of thunderstorms and slight rotation is in that area.

[tropicwatch]

I'm watching an area about 150 or so miles due south of Mobile. With the vortex that it spit out the the northeast it seems like a new area of thunderstorms and slight rotation is in that area.

From a ship approximately 75 miles south of mobile. Don't know about the wind reading.

SHIP
Location: 29.4N 87.9W
06/11/2022 2000 UTC
Winds: W (260°) at 80.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in
Air Temperature: 83.7 °F
Dew Point: 74.8 °F

[skyline385]

I'm watching an area about 150 or so miles due south of Mobile. With the vortex that it spit out the the northeast it seems like a new area of thunderstorms and slight rotation is in that area.

From a ship approximately 75 miles south of mobile. Don't know about the wind reading.

SHIP
Location: 29.4N 87.9W
06/11/2022 2000 UTC
Winds: W (260°) at 80.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in
Air Temperature: 83.7 °F
Dew Point: 74.8 °F

80 kts that ship needs to calibrate its instruments

[ChrisH-UK]

I'm watching an area about 150 or so miles due south of Mobile. With the vortex that it spit out the the northeast it seems like a new area of thunderstorms and slight rotation is in that area.

From a ship approximately 75 miles south of mobile. Don't know about the wind reading.

SHIP
Location: 29.4N 87.9W
06/11/2022 2000 UTC
Winds: W (260°) at 80.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in
Air Temperature: 83.7 °F
Dew Point: 74.8 °F

I saw that reading and the ship has been reporting 80mph winds for the last week. Looks like their anemometer is broken.

[Ian2401]

Seems to be in an area of favorable wind shear

[skyline385]

Think those MSLP readings dont mean much, there is a low over the entire Gulf right now