Area of interest in SW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

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Ian2401
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean

#81 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:31 pm

Spacecoast wrote:GFS goes west and NAV goes north....
https://i.ibb.co/1nVz6yx/ecmc.jpg

id like what the nav is smoking, no way a TC gets forced poleward with this ridge in place for the next few days
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean

#82 Postby ouragans » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:45 am

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea continue in association with a trough of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is possible while it drifts
northwestward near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it
could become a tropical depression late this week if the disturbance
remains over water. Regardless of development, this system could
produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean

#83 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:05 am

Organizing pretty quickly the last 6 hours. morning visible showing a clear low level meso vort( at the very least) with a weak MLC just about over it.

red low level. yellow mlc

Image

Image


Radar is somewhat helpful. though there is a large dead zone facing south.

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/ra ... 00.5%20deg
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean

#84 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:40 am

GFS is starting to come to its senses, at least in the short term. It takes a depression or weak TS into the Yucatan Saturday then west or west-southwest, perhaps skirting the southern Bay of Campeche Sunday/Monday. Strong ridging across the Gulf will prevent any northward movement. Just some rain for Central America and southern Mexico. 00Z and 06Z GFS runs insist on a strong hurricane in the Gulf beyond day 12. I wouldn't count on it. 00Z run's Cat 4 off the mid Texas coast in 16 days could bring us some rain, though. ;-)
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean

#85 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:44 am

wxman57 wrote:GFS is starting to come to its senses, at least in the short term. It takes a depression or weak TS into the Yucatan Saturday then west or west-southwest, perhaps skirting the southern Bay of Campeche Sunday/Monday. Strong ridging across the Gulf will prevent any northward movement. Just some rain for Central America and southern Mexico. 00Z and 06Z GFS runs insist on a strong hurricane in the Gulf beyond day 12. I wouldn't count on it. 00Z run's Cat 4 off the mid Texas coast in 16 days could bring us some rain, though. ;-)


Hi wxman57, check your pm when you have sometime. Thanks!
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean

#86 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:09 am

With some signs of rotation near 11.5N/81.5W, I would say that development chances over the next 48 hours are higher than the NHC's 20%. Maybe 50-60% chance we could see a TD there by tomorrow. It may move inland into Nicaragua by tomorrow night, though. Could skirt the coast and emerge north of Honduras Fri/Sat, where it has a shot of briefly reaching TS strength before moving back inland. Ridge over the northern Gulf will keep it from tracking northward.
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Re: Area of interest in SW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

#87 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:49 am

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