Area of interest in SW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z GFS initialized this very well convectively:

[wxman57]

Weak low pressure into Yucatan, most likely. Not a hurricane, per GFS.

[caneman]

For Caribbean systems especially, it might actually be ideal to go with the Canadian model--it's been the sane middle ground of sorts between the Euro's south and west bias (which makes a world of difference where land interaction is involved) and the GFS's tendency to lift north too much and over-intensify. The last batch of upgrades have done wonders in correcting it's tendency to blow up literally ever cloud into a hurricane--a mantle the GFS now carries.

That the GFS does pretty much develop everything makes the fact that it catches everything quite unremarkable, and essentially useless as a forecasting tool.

Calling it useless because of a few false flags 120+ hours in the future (which no one should be looking at seriously) is a stretch when it was the best track model last year and did good intensity wise as well, only behind the hurricane models.

GFS both dropped several systems last year and over-developed others that were either weak or never formed at all. GFS was also the only model that continuously developed systems in the Caribbean after September. It might be decent with track (though has a right-of-track bias) but it's terrible with genesis and intensity.

It was #1 with track last year. And has done well with genesis this year where others models pick up after the fact.. .... Icon did best with itensisty last year yet i see continuous bashing of it as well. I really wish we would stop these types of posts. I just don't see the purpose in them. The reality Is that NHC is the most accurate and they use a blend of all models, factor in known biases and recent successes and failures.
I mean no harm to you Hammy, this is just generally speaking and we've all engaged in it including me.

[Kingarabian]

Also let's not forget how bad the GFS has been in the WPAC this year.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form by late this week if the system remains over water. The
disturbance is expected to move northwestward near the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras during that time. Regardless of
development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall
across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

[galaxy401]

Got this and the competing area in the EPAC. With their close proximity, don't think both can coexist peacefully without one eating the other.

[wxman57]

"Death ridge" building over the TX/LA and NW Gulf this week. That'll keep any moisture way down south into CA or southern MX.

[aspen]

Looks like the future of this AOI heavily depends on the 20/30 AOI in the EPac. Right now the models are in two camps:

1.) The Atlantic AOI wins out, becomes moderately strong early on, and undergoes an arc-like path where it gets north of Nicaragua/Honduras before diving back into CA near Belize (GFS)

2.) The EPac AOI wins out, and the Atlantic AOI remains over CA before emerging into the Bay of Campeche, where it has a chance to develop (Euro, CMC, ICON)

Most models support the second solution, and none of them get the system to anything more than a weak TS at most. However, the interacting lows (and a CAG too, I think) will make this a difficult system for the models to forecast.

[SoupBone]

"Death ridge" building over the TX/LA and NW Gulf this week. That'll keep any moisture way down south into CA or southern MX.

This heat has been unbearable, but if the trade-off is no tropical systems, I'll take it. Though, we could seriously use some rain right now.

[tolakram]

I find it interesting that even though the Euro has the Atlantic system being very weak it still seems to alter the path of that small EPAC system.



Just a coincidence?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z GFS initialized this very well convectively:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/985949800157548614/unknown.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/985949800547622982/unknown.png

and it did it again for 18z:

[jconsor]

I agree that the GFS has been showing the concentrated deep convection N. of Panama (and the convection in the SW Caribbean in general) better than the ECMWF.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536477916581834753




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536478550282457089




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536479310692900864

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536482159665594368




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536483089270054916

[ConvergenceZone]

"Death ridge" building over the TX/LA and NW Gulf this week. That'll keep any moisture way down south into CA or southern MX.

Which is very typical for this time of year.... August and September are going to be crazy busy I have a feeling..........

[cycloneye]

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/bNH4AKb.gif

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1536511880105172992

[skyline385]

Seeing good 850mb vorticity and UL divergence on it

[Spacecoast]

GFS goes west and NAV goes north....

[zzh]

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/bNH4AKb.gif

Pretty much a messy rainmaker for Central America CE?