Area of interest in SW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[skyline385]

I just saw the NAM has development of this system.

That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model

Incoming 200 kts system

[Category5Kaiju]

I just saw the NAM has development of this system.

That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model

Incoming 200 kts system

I genuinely wonder how bonkers that model would get if we actually did get a sub-900 mbar hurricane. Would it be forecasting a system with a sub-800 mbar core?

[skyline385]

I just saw the NAM has development of this system.

That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model

Incoming 200 kts system

I genuinely wonder how bonkers that model would get if we actually did get a sub-900 mbar hurricane. Would it be forecasting a system with a sub-800 mbar core?

Because of NAM 3km's limited range, we would need a system blowing up over the loop current to sub-900 mbar aka Hurricane Rita for something like that

[skyline385]

A slightly weaker ridge would probably be bad here but knowing the GFS's weak ridge bias, probably unlikely

[Hammy]

Agreed, the GFS while overtuned does catch every system. All the systems which have formed so far, GFS was the first to detect them.

The EURO in particularly has been so bad with intensity forecasts at genesis that the NHC verification plot isn't even able to compare it with the rest of the models (out of range) which is absolutely hilarious.

For Caribbean systems especially, it might actually be ideal to go with the Canadian model--it's been the sane middle ground of sorts between the Euro's south and west bias (which makes a world of difference where land interaction is involved) and the GFS's tendency to lift north too much and over-intensify. The last batch of upgrades have done wonders in correcting it's tendency to blow up literally ever cloud into a hurricane--a mantle the GFS now carries.

That the GFS does pretty much develop everything makes the fact that it catches everything quite unremarkable, and essentially useless as a forecasting tool.

Calling it useless because of a few false flags 120+ hours in the future (which no one should be looking at seriously) is a stretch when it was the best track model last year and did good intensity wise as well, only behind the hurricane models.

GFS both dropped several systems last year and over-developed others that were either weak or never formed at all. GFS was also the only model that continuously developed systems in the Caribbean after September. It might be decent with track (though has a right-of-track bias) but it's terrible with genesis and intensity.

[InfernoFlameCat]

TS genesis is not a strengh in any models , the GFS is usually over aggressive and the EURO misses a lot
of systems and so does the UKMET.

But last year the GFS was superior to all the models on track , which is one of the most important (along with intensity
on developed storms) to the NHC.

I think since it recent upgrades it is generally the most reliable of all the models now but of course none are
Infallible and why a blend of models provide the best forecast.

In the case of this system I think the GFS has sniffed out a decent development chance, but the intensity is
likely overdone . JMO

Agreed, the GFS while overtuned does catch every system. All the systems which have formed so far, GFS was the first to detect them.

The EURO in particular has been so bad with intensity forecasts at genesis that the NHC verification plot isn't even able to compare it with the rest of the models (out of range) which is absolutely hilarious.

Gfs completely missed chanthu. It had a 15 knot low in 36 hours when instead a 95knot typhoon actually occurred.

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro ensembles: - no mucho

[Europa non è lontana]

For the 00z run, only the GFS and CMA have development within 96 hours. CMC has development in the Gulf after six days. ARPEGE dropped development, and the ICON, UKMet, and ACCESS-G do not have development at all. The Euro has a weak disturbance making landfall in central America before it can organise significantly.

[ThomasW]

GFS gradually correcting towards a more reasonable solution. "Only" 984 this run as the model realizes more and more land interaction, and less of that unrealistic direct north movement.

[ThomasW]

12z Euro ensembles: - no mucho
https://i.ibb.co/2t9HcLj/ecma.jpg

BoC development later on down the line feels like the most likely TCG scenario at this point. Barry 2013 and Danielle 2016 are good examples of this.

[kevin]

06z GFS still has storm formation on June 15, but it's getting closer and closer to land. On the one hand it's getting very close in terms of time, but on the other hand a single shift further inland by GFS and the storm will probably never form.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop by the middle part
of this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts
generally northwestward off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Blake

[wxman57]

There is evidence of moisture, and perhaps a weak low, moving into Central America and/or southern Mexico this week, but not a hurricane (as per GFS). Good model agreement on moisture moving inland. Of course, the 6Z GFS has to add in a major hurricane hit to Louisiana in the long range.

[skyline385]

A weak Bonnie would be perfect for the 2013 memes

[skyline385]

EPS seems to be getting onboard now

[KN2731]

5-day chances raised slightly

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Corrected to add generic low wording in the formation chance section

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop by the middle part
of this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts
generally northwestward off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Blake

[tropicwatch]

The upper level winds will need to calm down for anything to really happen.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Gfs with yet another hurricane into the Yucatán peninsula.

[kevin]

The important thing that imo distinguishes this case from most GFS 'fantasycanes' is that it keeps moving closer in the timeframe. Now there even is a closed 1004 mb low at +30 hrs. It gets disturbed a bit by land interaction and really gets its act together around +60, but it does seem like GFS is convinced that something will form. Looking at the shear map I'm not so sure yet, especially regarding the intensity that GFS is showing. But I wouldn't be surprised is we have a weak TS into Yucatan near the end of the week.

[Zonacane]

The upper level winds will need to calm down for anything to really happen.

https://i.imgur.com/V68DueY.gif

Shear is dynamic