Area of interest in SW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop by the middle part
of this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development of this system is possible while it drifts generally
northwestward off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Category5Kaiju]

This is going to be an interesting thread, I can tell

[captainbarbossa19]

Nothing may come of this, but I also will not be surprised if we get Bonnie before it's over.

[cycloneye]

Nothing may come of this, but I also will not be surprised if we get Bonnie before it's over.

Before what is over?

[Sciencerocks]

[zzh]

[SFLcane]

But But but thought it was a model cane. Hate to say it but the gfs has been on the money a good chunk of the time so far this season.

[Kingarabian]

But But but thought it was a model cane. Hate to say it but the gfs has been on the money a good chunk of the time so far this season.

Let's not conveniently forget that this model makes every storm a landfalling major hurricane. The model can sniff out storms earlier than others, no one is denying that, the issue is its final solutions.

[skyline385]

Ridge still strong on Euro but it does seem to be slightly weaker compared to previous runs

[skyline385]

But But but thought it was a model cane. Hate to say it but the gfs has been on the money a good chunk of the time so far this season.

Let's not conveniently forget that this model makes every storm a landfalling major hurricane. The model can sniff out storms earlier than others, no one is denying that, the issue is its final solutions.

The issue here imo is that GFS is a global model and people tend to focus a bit too much on its intensity estimates which are 120+ hours out. The purpose of GFS (wrt tropical weather) is to figure out the tracks which it is the best at, for intensity estimates everyone should be looking at the hurricane models.

Never take an intensity estimate from a global model at face value imo, whether its the GFS or EURO or ICON. I personally look at them for general trends, like if the ICON or EURO which are typically very conservative regarding intensities are showing a decent system forming then there is a good chance for it to be a relatively strong system.

[MHC Tracking]

But But but thought it was a model cane. Hate to say it but the gfs has been on the money a good chunk of the time so far this season.

ah yeah I remember the sub-960 Gulf hurricane in May, 940s mb Agatha, PTC 1 becoming organized and developing into a strong TS before it struck Florida, oh wait.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

But But but thought it was a model cane. Hate to say it but the gfs has been on the money a good chunk of the time so far this season.

I highly doubt this will become as strong as the GFS depicts lol. No other model makes it even remotely that intense.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

EPS should be interesting...
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1536052087666225153

[SFLcane]

But But but thought it was a model cane. Hate to say it but the gfs has been on the money a good chunk of the time so far this season.

ah yeah I remember the sub-960 Gulf hurricane in May, 940s mb Agatha, PTC 1 becoming organized and developing into a strong TS before it struck Florida, oh wait.

Not the point I was making though as most brush the model away when it has no support. It’s clearly done quite well sniffing out development this season. The final result as always should be taken with caution.

[wxman22]

The Canadian has the system now.

[aspen]

The chances of a Cat 2/3 peak are pretty much zero, but I think a weak Cat 1 at most is possible. Its maximum potential intensity may hinge on what the 50/90 AOI in the EPac does. If it becomes a strong hurricane, then its outflow could create even more shear over the Caribbean. If it stays weak, then maybe shear won’t be too bad.

[skyline385]

EPS should be interesting...
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1536052087666225153

Nah not a lot of activity on EPS this run

[Europa non è lontana]

Given that the ARPEGE dropped development in the 12z run, leaving only the GFS and CMA having development by +96, I am still hesitant to lend much credence to the GFS here. We'll see what the 18z and 00z runs hold.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536067992991178752

[skyline385]

12Z EPS - not a lot of members but more than before

Also that one member which makes a weird 270 degrees turn to head towards NOLA