CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

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Spacecoast
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CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#1 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:18 pm

Haven't seen this posted anywhere else....
sorted by probability of Hurricane impacts:
Image
sorted by probability of Major Hurricane impacts:
Image
1950-2021 Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
Image


1950-2021 Major Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
Image
Last edited by Spacecoast on Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#2 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:21 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Haven't seen this posted anywhere else....
sorted by probability of Hurricane impacts:
https://i.ibb.co/RbqtPW7/impact.jpg

sorted by probability of Major Hurricane impacts:
https://i.ibb.co/Lk2PRF3/MHimpact.jpg

1950-2021 Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
https://i.ibb.co/wNRbdtF/chrta.jpg


1950-2021 Major Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
https://i.ibb.co/NxnQd5w/chrt.jpg


Great info, can you send the links to this info?
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#3 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:43 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Haven't seen this posted anywhere else....
sorted by probability of Hurricane impacts:
https://i.ibb.co/RbqtPW7/impact.jpg

sorted by probability of Major Hurricane impacts:
https://i.ibb.co/Lk2PRF3/MHimpact.jpg

1950-2021 Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
https://i.ibb.co/wNRbdtF/chrta.jpg


1950-2021 Major Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
https://i.ibb.co/NxnQd5w/chrt.jpg


Great info, can you send the links to this info?


Its on CSU's page

https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#4 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:27 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Haven't seen this posted anywhere else....
sorted by probability of Hurricane impacts:
https://i.ibb.co/RbqtPW7/impact.jpg

sorted by probability of Major Hurricane impacts:
https://i.ibb.co/Lk2PRF3/MHimpact.jpg

1950-2021 Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
https://i.ibb.co/wNRbdtF/chrta.jpg


1950-2021 Major Hurricane impacts for US / Florida:
https://i.ibb.co/NxnQd5w/chrt.jpg


Great info, can you send the links to this info?


Its on CSU's page

https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html


Wow! I was looking through the data, and Texas has a 28% chance of a major hurricane this year. The normal chance is 16%. That is not good.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#5 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:49 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Great info, can you send the links to this info?


Its on CSU's page

https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html


Wow! I was looking through the data, and Texas has a 28% chance of a major hurricane this year. The normal chance is 16%. That is not good.


Whats even more crazy is that FL has 49% chance for Major this year while LA is only at 26% :lol:
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#6 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:34 pm

skyline385 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Its on CSU's page

https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html


Wow! I was looking through the data, and Texas has a 28% chance of a major hurricane this year. The normal chance is 16%. That is not good.


Whats even more crazy is that FL has 49% chance for Major this year while LA is only at 26% :lol:


Florida coastline dwarfs LA. Those numbers aren’t a surprise at all.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#7 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:05 pm

toad strangler wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Wow! I was looking through the data, and Texas has a 28% chance of a major hurricane this year. The normal chance is 16%. That is not good.


Whats even more crazy is that FL has 49% chance for Major this year while LA is only at 26% :lol:


Florida coastline dwarfs LA. Those numbers aren’t a surprise at all.


It seems like lately the FL panhandle has taken the majority of the hits.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#8 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:06 pm

toad strangler wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Wow! I was looking through the data, and Texas has a 28% chance of a major hurricane this year. The normal chance is 16%. That is not good.


Whats even more crazy is that FL has 49% chance for Major this year while LA is only at 26% :lol:


Florida coastline dwarfs LA. Those numbers aren’t a surprise at all.


Florida has a bigger coastline but since 2000, LA had 5 major landfalls and FL had 6 majors. We cant also just ignore recent climo, especially the last two seasons (3 majors for LA) of the current La Nina period.

Image
Image
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:40 am

Puerto Rico has very high numbers 64%-41%-18%. We dont need a landfall of any kind as the grid is still fragil after Maria.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#10 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:24 am

skyline385 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Its on CSU's page

https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html


Wow! I was looking through the data, and Texas has a 28% chance of a major hurricane this year. The normal chance is 16%. That is not good.


Whats even more crazy is that FL has 49% chance for Major this year while LA is only at 26% :lol:

49% for a major hurricane. Call me crazy but I think that’s low.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#11 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:21 am

skyline385 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Whats even more crazy is that FL has 49% chance for Major this year while LA is only at 26% :lol:


Florida coastline dwarfs LA. Those numbers aren’t a surprise at all.


Florida has a bigger coastline but since 2000, LA had 5 major landfalls and FL had 6 majors. We cant also just ignore recent climo, especially the last two seasons (3 majors for LA) of the current La Nina period.

https://i.imgur.com/lEZ9RUa.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/uUwekZr.jpg

Yes we can ignore recent climo, thats not how climatology works.You have to look at the LONG term pattern for change. Not just an uptake in landfalls over the last few years.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#12 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:29 am

wxman22 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Florida coastline dwarfs LA. Those numbers aren’t a surprise at all.


Florida has a bigger coastline but since 2000, LA had 5 major landfalls and FL had 6 majors. We cant also just ignore recent climo, especially the last two seasons (3 majors for LA) of the current La Nina period.

https://i.imgur.com/lEZ9RUa.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/uUwekZr.jpg

Yes we can ignore recent climo, thats not how climatology works.You have to look at the LONG term pattern for change. Not just an uptake in landfalls over the last few years.


Just like one can't look at May early development recently as a change in climo either. Florida is always going to have a much higher chance in charts like these because:

A. The coastline is huge
B. Much of the state is surrounded by water on 3 sides and can take a hit nearly from any direction. No place else in the CONUS has that distinction.
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Re: CSU 2022 Probabilty of TC Impacts (climo based)

#13 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:58 am

toad strangler wrote:
wxman22 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Florida has a bigger coastline but since 2000, LA had 5 major landfalls and FL had 6 majors. We cant also just ignore recent climo, especially the last two seasons (3 majors for LA) of the current La Nina period.

https://i.imgur.com/lEZ9RUa.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/uUwekZr.jpg

Yes we can ignore recent climo, thats not how climatology works.You have to look at the LONG term pattern for change. Not just an uptake in landfalls over the last few years.


Just like one can't look at May early development recently as a change in climo either. Florida is always (at least in most of our lifetimes) going to have a much higher chance in charts like these because:

A. The coastline is huge
B. Much of the state is surrounded by water on 3 sides and can take a hit nearly from any direction. No place else in the CONUS has that distinction.

"We cant also just ignore recent climo".... unless recent climo contains highly unusual outliers (such as the Florida drought of impacts 2006-2016).
Recent climo isn't ignored, it's just under-weighted using a 140 year sample size.

This is like flipping a coin 'tails' 9 time in row. It may seem like a 'tails' trend, (and likely to continue), or it may seem like 'heads' is long overdue, (return to mean). Both are wrong. The probability remains 50%.

140 years may be too large, (discounting recent trends), but 20 years may be too small a sample size. 75 years seems like a good compromise.

Comparing a smaller land mass to a larger land mass does skew the probabilities.
A bigger target generally means more historical impacts over the last 100 years, therefore a higher probability is calculated using Poisson distribution.

It's the Impact(s) per square mile for areas that should be calculated in order to compare apples - apples.

I am working on recreating this analysis using a series of non-overlapping 60nm circles, using only (more recent, & accurate) 1950-2021 data.This will eliminate the target size variable by using a standard geographical area.
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