Will any other storms form before July 1?

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emeraldislenc
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Will any other storms form before July 1?

#1 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:03 am

What are your thoughts?
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#2 Postby kevin » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:50 am

Yes, the MDR storm which is currently in the models. I don't know how strong it will get (climo would suggest anything above a TS is unlikely), but I do think it will form.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:49 am

Most likely, no. I still think that Bonnie will most likely form along a frontal boundary off the SE U.S. Coast over the next few weeks, though. Nothing in the MDR over the next few weeks. Too much shear.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#4 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:16 pm

Leaning towards no.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:36 pm

Sinking air should return over the EPAC by this month's end, and assuming that MDR system forms (maybe as wxman said, the frontal system off the East Coast too), I can't see why not
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#6 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:41 pm

So crazy 2004 didn't get "A" until 7/31
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#7 Postby CFLHurricane » Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm

No, I think we’re in a lull for a bit.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#8 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:49 pm

Nope.... even though there's a good lookin' wave out east.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#9 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:58 pm

Models say that we very well could have Bonnie before July 1st now.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#10 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:31 pm

That wave is trying already.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#11 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:43 pm

Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop. :D

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#12 Postby FireRat » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:10 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop. :D

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on


Yup, I also have a feeling that this whole PTC thing and the significantly slower start to the season might end up munching off some named storm numbers down the line, so having another season with 20+ systems might actually be tougher to reach than perviously thought.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#13 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:59 am

FireRat wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop. :D

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on


Yup, I also have a feeling that this whole PTC thing and the significantly slower start to the season might end up munching off some named storm numbers down the line, so having another season with 20+ systems might actually be tougher to reach than perviously thought.

No way we’re breaking 20 NS at this rate. Not only has there not been enough systems in the early season, but it seems like there will be less subtropical shorties this year; both Alex and soon-to-be-Bonnie have been very quick, but that’s because they waited until the last minute to develop, and both came from tropical origins. If it wasn’t for shorties, 2019 and 2021 would not have had so many NS.

A season like 2017 with a NS count in the high teens and higher ACE per storm seems more probable now, if indicators are right about a MDR-heavy year.
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Re: Will any other storms form before July 1?

#14 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:24 am

aspen wrote:
FireRat wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop. :D

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on


Yup, I also have a feeling that this whole PTC thing and the significantly slower start to the season might end up munching off some named storm numbers down the line, so having another season with 20+ systems might actually be tougher to reach than perviously thought.

No way we’re breaking 20 NS at this rate. Not only has there not been enough systems in the early season, but it seems like there will be less subtropical shorties this year; both Alex and soon-to-be-Bonnie have been very quick, but that’s because they waited until the last minute to develop, and both came from tropical origins. If it wasn’t for shorties, 2019 and 2021 would not have had so many NS.

A season like 2017 with a NS count in the high teens and higher ACE per storm seems more probable now, if indicators are right about a MDR-heavy year.

Especially given the anomalously cooler subtopics now, which favors activity in the deep tropics.
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