How many named storms will form on July?

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How many named storms will form on July?

Poll ended at Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:10 pm

One
4
9%
Two
24
55%
Three
8
18%
Four
4
9%
Five
0
No votes
Six or more
0
No votes
None will form
4
9%
 
Total votes: 44

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cycloneye
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How many named storms will form on July?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:10 pm

Let's see what the members think about how many named storms will form on July. This poll will close on June 30th at 1:10 PM EDT.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#2 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:24 pm

Thinking we’ll see at least one…most likely in the subtropics though. I would never count on any MDR activity no matter how busy the season is likely to be but given how active the subtropics tend to be these days it’s hard to believe we won’t see at least one in that region of the Atlantic in July.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:44 pm

I think we could see two more systems before the end of June. One off the east coast and one in the MDR.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#4 Postby CFLHurricane » Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:54 pm

Two systems but nothing of consequence. It is dusty dry July after all.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#5 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:09 am

I will go with 2, but 3 wouldnt suprise me in what should be an active year.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#6 Postby Old-TimeCane » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:12 pm

I went with two. Not crazy busy, but yet not a typical July.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#7 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:03 pm

I'm thinking 3, with two of them spinning at the same time around the last 10 days of the month.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#8 Postby kevin » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:48 am

I voted 2, above average but nothing historic. Once the switch flips I think we're gonna be in for a true rollercoaster ride, but unlike f.e. 2005 I don't think the switch will be flipped until early/mid August.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#9 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:43 am

Anywhere from 2 -5. I’m going with 2 but I think 3 named storms is a reasonable prospect as well. We could have 5 if the switch turns on in early July but <1% of that IMHO.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:01 pm

Going with 3, one of which becoming a hurricane.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#11 Postby psyclone » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:22 pm

We need some downcasting in here. i went with 0
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#12 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:28 pm

psyclone wrote:We need some downcasting in here. i went with 0


I went with 1, but I will not be surprised with more or less activity. July is rather difficult to predict.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#13 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:50 pm

Today’s CFS has FOUR July storms, but while I think the overall pattern is probable (a bit of a lull after 94L before the MDR producing something in the later half of the month), it’s probably overdoing the NS count. Probably 2-3 at the most.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#14 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:20 am

Gut wants to say Two, but with this last week stirring up and depending how the models handle this last week of June I was torn between 3-4 :roll:
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:59 pm

Thanks to all that voted. Two was the clear winner but let's see in reality what happens on July.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#16 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:35 pm

Looks like I may lose because there will have to be 0 more storms the rest of this month to stay at 1. I think the first half might feature nothing more, but the second half I highly doubt.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#17 Postby Teban54 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:13 am

It's July 2 and we are already at 2 storms...
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#18 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:55 am

Teban54 wrote:It's July 2 and we are already at 2 storms...


Right? Thing is though I doubt we’ll see anymore this month given the extremely strong suppressed CCKW that will likely stunt development till at least early August.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#19 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:39 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Teban54 wrote:It's July 2 and we are already at 2 storms...


Right? Thing is though I doubt we’ll see anymore this month given the extremely strong suppressed CCKW that will likely stunt development till at least early August.


The caveat there is, this suppressive CCKW must be extraordinarily powerful in order to completely shut down the Atlantic, where not even a pop up subtropical system like Colin can form. Sort of like 2021, I guess? Who knows, maybe you are right, though I personally still think it’s somewhat more likely that we see at least Danielle or Earl before we reach August.
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Re: How many named storms will form on July?

#20 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:45 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Anywhere from 2 -5. I’m going with 2 but I think 3 named storms is a reasonable prospect as well. We could have 5 if the switch turns on in early July but <1% of that IMHO.

The switch done turned on. Eating my shoe.
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