Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)
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- cycloneye
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Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)
Making this thread as we have an incipient area that may or not develop down the road and ASCAT shows a weak rotation. NHC has not introduced it as a tropical wave but should do it today. Models are weak on anything developing from this area except CMC that is very bullish.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
This is now a Tropical Wave as it has been introduced at the 12z surface analysis.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
This looks like it is holding together pretty well after emerging off the coast. The large wave ahead of it really scoured out the dry air.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
ScottNAtlanta wrote:This looks like it is holding together pretty well after emerging off the coast. The large wave ahead of it really scoured out the dry air.
It also helps that this wave is exiting at a decently low latitude
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Wave is holding together. Also a large thunderstorm complex and area of low pressure is over Western Africa and should hit the coast tomorrow. That looks impressive right now.
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- skyline385
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
That's not a route it should be taking this early
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Wave should slowly spin down as instability decreases the further out the wave travels. Then we will see what it can do. Probably not much.
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- wxman57
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Same fate likely awaits this wave as for the one just to its west. Convection will gradually dissipate over the next day or two. Too early for anything to develop out there.
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- skyline385
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Interesting how the 06z ensembles had this too
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
wxman57 wrote:Same fate likely awaits this wave as for the one just to its west. Convection will gradually dissipate over the next day or two. Too early for anything to develop out there.
I remember a few years ago in June when we almost got a storm out there to be named Bret. Luckily it was still too early for anything to develop and it didn't
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Should begin to develop once it nears 40W. Main inhibitor so far seems to be possible land interaction with SA in about 7 days.
12z GFS back to developing it now but keeps it weak because of land proximity.
12z GFS back to developing it now but keeps it weak because of land proximity.
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- wxman57
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Kingarabian wrote:Should begin to develop once it nears 40W. Main inhibitor so far seems to be possible land interaction with SA in about 7 days.
12z GFS back to developing it now but keeps it weak because of land proximity.
The wave in front of it is now approaching 40W and it lost all of its convection. Nothing to indicate that anything different will happen as this wave moves west. Best shot at any development may be when it reaches the SW Caribbean around the beginning of July. Not great chances, though, and not strong. Should track west into Central America, developing or not.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the ECMWF gust map is right.
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- toad strangler
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
SFLcane wrote::sick:
coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the gust map is right.
https://i.postimg.cc/fTzDCjLP/gust.jpg
Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote::sick:
coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the gust map is right.
https://i.postimg.cc/fTzDCjLP/gust.jpg
Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC
The storm hits Hispaniola the Ultra-Shredder.
Therefore, it will never recover
/s
Last edited by Category5Kaiju on Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
Category5Kaiju wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote::sick:
coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the gust map is right.
https://i.postimg.cc/fTzDCjLP/gust.jpg
Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC
The storm hits Hispaniola the Ultra-Shredder.
Therefore, it will never recover
Tell that to Elsa and Grace after running over the entire Greater Antilles
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands
aspen wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:toad strangler wrote:
Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC
The storm hits Hispaniola the Ultra-Shredder.
Therefore, it will never recover
Tell that to Elsa and Grace after running over the entire Greater Antilles
Oh yeah I know; I was just being sarcastic there as there have obviously been many examples of storms that survived that kind of path (but some in the wx community love the idea that Hispaniola is always a death sentence)
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