Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#121 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:33 pm

Might end up in the BOC/GOM on this 18z GFS.

Now a hurricane in the WCaribbean
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#122 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:39 pm

Great video by Mark Sudduth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gURsWOeVM6Y
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#123 Postby lsuhurricane » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:46 pm

This GFS run is going to get this thread moving. Notably less ridging from 12z.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#124 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:48 pm

18z GFS 168-240.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#125 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:01 pm

The Yucatán gets some 4th of July fireworks on the 18z GFS. I’m not really buying a gap in the ridge that draws the system further north than Nicaragua/Honduras because the GFS has failed with ridging over and over again during the last month. Its intensity might be excessive. However, the wave not developing until just after passing through the Lesser Antilles is something I can believe happening.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#126 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:02 pm

Very slow on the GFS too, not every day you see a Caribbean system moving at 15kt this time of year
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#127 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:06 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Can anyone think of a named storm or any tropical storm (pre names) that went straight into SA? I can't and I've been looking for one.


I think Bret 1993?
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#128 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:08 pm

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#129 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:14 pm

aspen wrote:The Yucatán gets some 4th of July fireworks on the 18z GFS. I’m not really buying a gap in the ridge that draws the system further north than Nicaragua/Honduras because the GFS has failed with ridging over and over again during the last month. Its intensity might be excessive. However, the wave not developing until just after passing through the Lesser Antilles is something I can believe happening.


Not just the GFS though, both CMC & ICON have trended north for the past couple of days. 12Z EPS trended north as well.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#130 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:19 pm

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#131 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:26 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/9ZWkyjG


Should be invest very soon.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#132 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:35 pm

Small lil cane on the GFS and EURO

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Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#133 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:35 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#134 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:37 pm

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#135 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


https://i.imgur.com/TPclun5.png


Well, it's definitely on now. Crap
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#136 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:40 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/9ZWkyjG


It is looking very good compared to earlier today
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#137 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:41 pm

Looks like a developing system in that loop. Thought it was an invest now when the odds went up but it should be designated shortly.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#138 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:44 pm

Holy crap, not only did it get upgraded to a 40% chance of 5 day development, but its zone of possible development now encompasses its current location too. :double:
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#139 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:51 pm

Well this here is quite the wave for June, probably too early to see anything crazy from this, but I definitely would not be surprised if this became Bonnie. Long season ahead...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%

#140 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:57 pm

Vorticity developing

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