Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Might end up in the BOC/GOM on this 18z GFS.
Now a hurricane in the WCaribbean
Now a hurricane in the WCaribbean
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
This GFS run is going to get this thread moving. Notably less ridging from 12z.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
The Yucatán gets some 4th of July fireworks on the 18z GFS. I’m not really buying a gap in the ridge that draws the system further north than Nicaragua/Honduras because the GFS has failed with ridging over and over again during the last month. Its intensity might be excessive. However, the wave not developing until just after passing through the Lesser Antilles is something I can believe happening.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Very slow on the GFS too, not every day you see a Caribbean system moving at 15kt this time of year
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Can anyone think of a named storm or any tropical storm (pre names) that went straight into SA? I can't and I've been looking for one.
I think Bret 1993?
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
aspen wrote:The Yucatán gets some 4th of July fireworks on the 18z GFS. I’m not really buying a gap in the ridge that draws the system further north than Nicaragua/Honduras because the GFS has failed with ridging over and over again during the last month. Its intensity might be excessive. However, the wave not developing until just after passing through the Lesser Antilles is something I can believe happening.
Not just the GFS though, both CMC & ICON have trended north for the past couple of days. 12Z EPS trended north as well.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Small lil cane on the GFS and EURO
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
https://i.imgur.com/TPclun5.png
Well, it's definitely on now. Crap
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%
Looks like a developing system in that loop. Thought it was an invest now when the odds went up but it should be designated shortly.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%
Holy crap, not only did it get upgraded to a 40% chance of 5 day development, but its zone of possible development now encompasses its current location too.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%
Well this here is quite the wave for June, probably too early to see anything crazy from this, but I definitely would not be surprised if this became Bonnie. Long season ahead...
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- skyline385
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: 8 PM TWO=20%/40%
Vorticity developing
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