Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#81 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Folks, there is a consensus of all the models on developing the wave but there are some differences about the movement. Can you believe something like this in June?


Well, there was the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane and Hurricane Dennis that developed around the same time. Also, there is a high probability of a hyperactive season this year so personally I am not surprised to potentially see anomalies like this.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#82 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:54 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hmmmm interesting. I want to see what Wxman57 has to say about it. Multimodel support for a system really gives it realistic prospects of developing. And, in the case it does get into the GOM, with that loop current we could see a Dennis comeback. While that happening is very unlikely, it’s just interesting. Hopefully it doesn’t develop, but if it does… :double:


wxman57 already stated he doubted it would develop on a couple of occasions in the past couple days.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:54 pm

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#84 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:58 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hmmmm interesting. I want to see what Wxman57 has to say about it. Multimodel support for a system really gives it realistic prospects of developing. And, in the case it does get into the GOM, with that loop current we could see a Dennis comeback. While that happening is very unlikely, it’s just interesting. Hopefully it doesn’t develop, but if it does… :double:


I find the multi-model support for development somewhat disconcerting. I would just laugh at the GFS if it was all alone again. Seeing how the current wave is exploding convection in the SW Caribbean today, I'm concerned a stronger system may blow up into a hurricane east of Nicaragua late next week. I don't believe the Canadian's forecast. Develops it too quickly and has a much weaker ridge to the north. ICON is not too different from the Canadian, though. I don't think the models will get a good handle on it until late this weekend as far as any track across the Caribbean. One thing that says development is likely is that I have a 4-day weekend planned for the 4th of July, and many of our support team are out on vacation most of next week. If that's not an indicator of likely development, then I don't know what is.

I'm thinking only slight development east of the Caribbean (TD or weak TS). Certainly wouldn't rule out a hurricane in the SW Caribbean next Fri.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#85 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:00 pm

12z EURO also went very aggressive and put a straight up major in the Caribbean. I think all of the models are overhyping/overinitiating this thing way too fast. When it becomes an invest and SHIPS guidance comes out the models should back off significantly. This ain’t September yet!
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#86 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:06 pm

EURO had enough of the attention GFS was getting lol

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:06 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:12z EURO also went very aggressive and put a straight up major in the Caribbean. I think all of the models are overhyping/overinitiating this thing way too fast. When it becomes an invest and SHIPS guidance comes out the models should back off significantly. This ain’t September yet!

Models probably got better data ingested on this run. This wave has been impressive.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#88 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:08 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:12z EURO also went very aggressive and put a straight up major in the Caribbean. I think all of the models are overhyping/overinitiating this thing way too fast. When it becomes an invest and SHIPS guidance comes out the models should back off significantly. This ain’t September yet!


I agree. I think we need to wait for more verification before we really start to become concerned about this. However, as I mentioned in an earlier post, there have been hurricanes before in the Caribbean in late June like 1933 Trinidad. So while hurricanes in the Caribbean are rare this time of year, they are not impossible either.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#89 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:17 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:12z EURO also went very aggressive and put a straight up major in the Caribbean. I think all of the models are overhyping/overinitiating this thing way too fast. When it becomes an invest and SHIPS guidance comes out the models should back off significantly. This ain’t September yet!


I agree. I think we need to wait for more verification before we really start to become concerned about this. However, as I mentioned in an earlier post, there have been hurricanes before in the Caribbean in late June like 1933 Trinidad. So while hurricanes in the Caribbean are rare this time of year, they are not impossible either.


If some of the more favorable model condition predictions verify, I genuinely would not be alarmed to see a hurricane in the Caribbean. Sure, it’s a good idea to be conservative in cases like these to be safe as seeing such is not something every season has, but just because it hasn’t happened in a while does not mean it can never happen again of course.
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Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#90 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:24 pm

Ensembles pretty bullish so far
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#91 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:42 pm

Just got a satellite loop of it.

Meteosat-11 Geo Color - https://col.st/fVuKl

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#92 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hmmmm interesting. I want to see what Wxman57 has to say about it. Multimodel support for a system really gives it realistic prospects of developing. And, in the case it does get into the GOM, with that loop current we could see a Dennis comeback. While that happening is very unlikely, it’s just interesting. Hopefully it doesn’t develop, but if it does… :double:


I find the multi-model support for development somewhat disconcerting. I would just laugh at the GFS if it was all alone again. Seeing how the current wave is exploding convection in the SW Caribbean today, I'm concerned a stronger system may blow up into a hurricane east of Nicaragua late next week. I don't believe the Canadian's forecast. Develops it too quickly and has a much weaker ridge to the north. ICON is not too different from the Canadian, though. I don't think the models will get a good handle on it until late this weekend as far as any track across the Caribbean. One thing that says development is likely is that I have a 4-day weekend planned for the 4th of July, and many of our support team are out on vacation most of next week. If that's not an indicator of likely development, then I don't know what is.

I'm thinking only slight development east of the Caribbean (TD or weak TS). Certainly wouldn't rule out a hurricane in the SW Caribbean next Fri.
Direct correlation between a 57 planned vacation and development chances. It's been that way for years.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#93 Postby crownweather » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:53 pm

skyline385 wrote:Ensembles pretty bullish so far


One thing to note with the EPS members is all of them are north of the operational model with many of them making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula or moving into the southern and then western Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#94 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:56 pm

The southern periphery of the Bermuda ridge is something that needs to be watched the next couple of days. ICON/CMC have it weaken just enough to move north of the Islands, GFS and Euro keep it down south, however GEFS and EPS keep both solutions open with a deeper system moving further North and a shallower system keeping South of the islands.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#95 Postby IsabelaWeather » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:02 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Ridge too strong for any CONUS impacts this run.



I was curious, what mechanic strengthens that ridge? I see it waxing and waning a lot on the models and it plays a major role in hurricanes affecting the USA, but what actually makes it stronger?
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#96 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:04 pm

The more northern EC ensemble members develop it more quickly and are stronger. I put together a "what-if" track based solely on an interpolation between the 12Z GFS and Euro. The track starts Sunday morning. It's not my forecast, just an interpolation of current operational runs to get an idea of the track & timing. Let's hope it stays weaker and takes the farther south track. We don't need a hurricane moving into the Gulf on July 3.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#97 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:05 pm

Yikes, saw the members being bullish but the full plot is something else

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#98 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:The more northern EC ensemble members develop it more quickly and are stronger. I put together a "what-if" track based solely on an interpolation between the 12Z GFS and Euro. The track starts Sunday morning. It's not my forecast, just an interpolation of current operational runs to get an idea of the track & timing. Let's hope it stays weaker and takes the farther south track. We don't need a hurricane moving into the Gulf on July 3.

[url]http://wxman57.com/images/prelim.JPG[url]

Yeah. The way it looks on satellite so far shows that the stronger EPS members and CMC operational solutions have some weight.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#99 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like northern Nicaragua on 12Z EC. Saturday, July 2. Hurricane. Hopefully, it stays down there.


Well that's not very comforting. :eek: :lol:
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#100 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:15 pm

10 days away so much can and will change.
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