InfernoFlameCat wrote:Hmmmm interesting. I want to see what Wxman57 has to say about it. Multimodel support for a system really gives it realistic prospects of developing. And, in the case it does get into the GOM, with that loop current we could see a Dennis comeback. While that happening is very unlikely, it’s just interesting. Hopefully it doesn’t develop, but if it does…
I find the multi-model support for development somewhat disconcerting. I would just laugh at the GFS if it was all alone again. Seeing how the current wave is exploding convection in the SW Caribbean today, I'm concerned a stronger system may blow up into a hurricane east of Nicaragua late next week. I don't believe the Canadian's forecast. Develops it too quickly and has a much weaker ridge to the north. ICON is not too different from the Canadian, though. I don't think the models will get a good handle on it until late this weekend as far as any track across the Caribbean. One thing that says development is likely is that I have a 4-day weekend planned for the 4th of July, and many of our support team are out on vacation most of next week. If that's not an indicator of likely development, then I don't know what is.
I'm thinking only slight development east of the Caribbean (TD or weak TS). Certainly wouldn't rule out a hurricane in the SW Caribbean next Fri.