Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#61 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:01 pm

skyline385 wrote:ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC

Also an aggressive GFS, probably it's CAG bias at play a bit

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220623/19efd06e24c04eaac66da16b04ccae93.jpg


There's no CAG there
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#62 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:08 pm

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#63 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:14 pm

Blown Away wrote:
skyline385 wrote:ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC

https://i.imgur.com/9Pyw0Ne.gif
12z ICON...

Unrelated but the ICON also spins up a brief TS in the Gulf. So far it’s the only model to do so.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#64 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:15 pm

NotSparta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC

Also an aggressive GFS, probably it's CAG bias at play a bit

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220623/19efd06e24c04eaac66da16b04ccae93.jpg


There's no CAG there

I guess CAG was the wrong term, but you are right. Checked the vorticity plots and nothing weird going on.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#65 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:25 pm

I’m still sus of this wave developing. If it does, I expect it to remain very weak. I don’t think it will amount to anything more than rain and gusty winds.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#66 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:50 pm

Wow that ridge is super stout.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#67 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:51 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Berg
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#68 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:00 pm

Image
12z GEM/CMC brings a hurricane to PR/DR/Bahamas...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#69 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:14 pm

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#70 Postby sma10 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:25 pm

Hmm, 12z Euro, much better organized at 120hrs, following GFS lead.

Are the Euro and GFS caving to the CMC? That would certainly be different
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#71 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:33 pm

Looks like the Euro is going to make this system a hurricane in the Caribbean. :eek:
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#72 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:33 pm

12z Euro:
Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#73 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:36 pm

Looks like a hurricane now in the Caribbean:
Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#74 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:38 pm

Ridge too strong for any CONUS impacts this run.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#75 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:40 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Ridge too strong for any CONUS impacts this run.

If we split the model solutions, this goes south of big islands but just avoid CA. So this could end up in the GOM.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#76 Postby zzh » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:43 pm

Euro has 972mb :double: :double: :double:
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#77 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:45 pm

Looks like northern Nicaragua on 12Z EC. Saturday, July 2. Hurricane. Hopefully, it stays down there.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#78 Postby sma10 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Ridge too strong for any CONUS impacts this run.

If we split the model solutions, this goes south of big islands but just avoid CA. So this could end up in the GOM.


We don't get a lot of late June/early July Caribbean Canes, but when they do come along they tend to stay south, so their tracks end up looking a bit more like Euro track than CMC-type track
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:49 pm

Folks, there is a consensus of all the models on developing the wave but there are some differences about the movement. Can you believe something like this in June?
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#80 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:52 pm

Hmmmm interesting. I want to see what Wxman57 has to say about it. Multimodel support for a system really gives it realistic prospects of developing. And, in the case it does get into the GOM, with that loop current we could see a Dennis comeback. While that happening is very unlikely, it’s just interesting. Hopefully it doesn’t develop, but if it does… :double:
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