Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

[Kingarabian]

CMC intensity is very plausible but track will influence the intensity heavily.

[skyline385]

CMC intensity is very plausible but track will influence the intensity heavily.

It is definitely plausible, EPS had several members on this route

[skyline385]

0Z EURO may get interesting

[Kingarabian]

0Z EURO may get interesting

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220623/f73b3fff56a7e34f20f946785a8b9d91.jpg

Looks like it's a weaker ridge on the Euro but has a shallower system that doesn't feel the weakness.

[aspen]

06z GFS manages to avoid South America, but is still weak, possibly due to EPac bias and creating EPac-induced shear when it’s highly unlikely anything significant develops (see Celia’s under-performance). There seems to be a gap in the ridge due to a low pressure area just off of the East Coast that the wave is too weak to take advantage of.

[Blown Away]

These low latitude June/July waves moving across Atlantic always struggle with dry air/dust. If these waves don't move into CA they typically don't gain enough latitude to miss all the islands and are usually nothing more than a minor/moderate gusty wind rain event for the islands. The "exceptions" have been happening more often in recent years, but I'll side with climatology here.


00z ECENS showing more weaker ensembles into CA than 12z. IF this wave deepens into a moderate TS or hurricane it may gain latitude.

[kevin]

First mention by the NHC:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[InfernoFlameCat]

First MDR lemon.

[SFLcane]

[Steve H.]

Looks like we may have competing areas of low pressure with the two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. We’ve seen this in the past, though I can’t remember exactly when. It ended up that neither really developed very well. Guess we’ll see if one becomes dominant in the near term. If not, development may be stunted until this gets in the Caribbean, if then. Just a thought .

[skyline385]

Looks like we may have competing areas of low pressure with the two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. We’ve seen this in the past, though I can’t remember exactly when. It ended up that neither really developed very well. Guess we’ll see if one becomes dominant in the near term. If not, development may be stunted until this gets in the Caribbean, if then. Just a thought .

2020 was when centers completed left and right in the MDR. Isiais was the the worst one of the lot iirc.

[aspen]

Looks like we may have competing areas of low pressure with the two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. We’ve seen this in the past, though I can’t remember exactly when. It ended up that neither really developed very well. Guess we’ll see if one becomes dominant in the near term. If not, development may be stunted until this gets in the Caribbean, if then. Just a thought .

2020 was when centers completed left and right in the MDR. Isiais was the the worst one of the lot iirc.

Laura was pretty bad too. It took a few days as a PTC before one of the centers finally took over and it became a TC, although IIRC, whether it even had a well-defined closed circulation for its first advisory or two was questionable.

[Blown Away]

00z GEM/CMC... 12z should be running soon...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1539997452593397762

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1539997452593397762

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1539999300805074948

[skyline385]

ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC

Also an aggressive GFS, probably it's CAG bias at play a bit

[Blown Away]

ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC

12z ICON...

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has turned very bullish.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS Goes Hurricane in Caribbean...

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS Goes Hurricane in Caribbean...

Welcome to the 2022 season folks, its going to be very active.