Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#101 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:17 pm

SFLcane wrote:10 days away so much can and will change.

Track, yes. Intensity, it's becoming clear there will be something coherent near or entering the Caribbean in less than 5 days. I would say odds should be 20/70.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#102 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The more northern EC ensemble members develop it more quickly and are stronger. I put together a "what-if" track based solely on an interpolation between the 12Z GFS and Euro. The track starts Sunday morning. It's not my forecast, just an interpolation of current operational runs to get an idea of the track & timing. Let's hope it stays weaker and takes the farther south track. We don't need a hurricane moving into the Gulf on July 3.

[url]http://wxman57.com/images/prelim.JPG[url]

Yeah. The way it looks on satellite so far shows that the stronger EPS members and CMC operational solutions have some weight.


The forward speed of 20kts as it tracks into the Caribbean may limit low-level convergence and strengthening.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#103 Postby Teban54 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:The more northern EC ensemble members develop it more quickly and are stronger. I put together a "what-if" track based solely on an interpolation between the 12Z GFS and Euro. The track starts Sunday morning. It's not my forecast, just an interpolation of current operational runs to get an idea of the track & timing. Let's hope it stays weaker and takes the farther south track. We don't need a hurricane moving into the Gulf on July 3.

http://wxman57.com/images/prelim.JPG

The image didn't load for me, and the [img] tag also doesn't work for some reason, so here's the URL instead:
http://wxman57.com/images/prelim.JPG
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#104 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:37 pm

SFLcane wrote:10 days away so much can and will change.


Right a lot sure can change! Now saying this will happen, but I remember before Harvey hit Texas, everyone was convinced it was going to CA. That did not turn out as expected.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#105 Postby zzh » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:49 pm

Image
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#106 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:51 pm

zzh wrote:[url]https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg[url]
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.

But in regards to what should be 94L soon, we've had these EPS runs for the past 3 days if not longer.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#107 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:52 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.



Yeah that's not good.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#108 Postby Teban54 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:55 pm

SoupBone wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.



Yeah that's not good.

This was in 2021 on the same date, btw, in case anyone missed it (I almost did).
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#109 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:58 pm

Teban54 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.



Yeah that's not good.

This was in 2021 on the same date, btw, in case anyone missed it (I almost did).



I didn't catch that, thanks.
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Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#110 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:59 pm

Teban54 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.



Yeah that's not good.

This was in 2021 on the same date, btw, in case anyone missed it (I almost did).

Which like Kingarabian said doesn't really apply to the current invest. We have had bullish ensembles for days now and multiple operational runs have started to agree with it.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#111 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:13 pm

This is today's 12z.

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#112 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is today's 12z.

Image

Full range 12Z EPS for today for the curious

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#113 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:39 pm

I think if was Sept 1st with same model runs the NHC 5 day probability would be at least 40 to 50 percent development
chance.

Climatology is holding down the probabilities at this point I think, but dont blame the NHC as this would be a rare event.

I would go with the models as they are usaully pretty reliable when they are all on the same page.
They are actually in remarkable agreement on direction, speed and overall environment in the next 7 days .
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands

#114 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:49 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.


Probably won't be as much of a false alarm. This was for a wave that was just about to splash down. At that point in a wave's lifecycle the EPS usually overdoes the storm, as it did there. The wave now has been offshore for some time, so if the ensembles collapse similarly there would be some other reason. Seems like more of a real signal they're latching onto, but it could be overdoing intensity
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#115 Postby Nuno » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:51 pm

Just declare it as an invest already. Climo be damned.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#116 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:53 pm

GFS coming in stronger at 36 hours, 1008 mb
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#117 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:10 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:GFS coming in stronger at 36 hours, 1008 mb

Now weaker, heading for S.A. at 96 hours
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#118 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:20 pm

Further north on the 18z compared to any of its past runs.

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#119 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:25 pm

Can anyone think of a named storm or any tropical storm (pre names) that went straight into SA? I can't and I've been looking for one.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#120 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:29 pm

Deepening again in the East Caribbean.

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