Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

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Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:33 am

Making this thread as we have an incipient area that may or not develop down the road and ASCAT shows a weak rotation. NHC has not introduced it as a tropical wave but should do it today. Models are weak on anything developing from this area except CMC that is very bullish.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#2 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:48 am

i think the EPS is out to lunch.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#3 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:52 am

Genesis probabilities....
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:59 am

This is now a Tropical Wave as it has been introduced at the 12z surface analysis.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#5 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:06 am

This looks like it is holding together pretty well after emerging off the coast. The large wave ahead of it really scoured out the dry air.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:19 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:This looks like it is holding together pretty well after emerging off the coast. The large wave ahead of it really scoured out the dry air.


It also helps that this wave is exiting at a decently low latitude
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#7 Postby Steve H. » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:15 am

Wave is holding together. Also a large thunderstorm complex and area of low pressure is over Western Africa and should hit the coast tomorrow. That looks impressive right now.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#8 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:21 am

That's not a route it should be taking this early

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#9 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:35 am

Wave should slowly spin down as instability decreases the further out the wave travels. Then we will see what it can do. Probably not much.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#10 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:38 am

Same fate likely awaits this wave as for the one just to its west. Convection will gradually dissipate over the next day or two. Too early for anything to develop out there.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#11 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:45 am

Interesting how the 06z ensembles had this too

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#12 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:47 am

wxman57 wrote:Same fate likely awaits this wave as for the one just to its west. Convection will gradually dissipate over the next day or two. Too early for anything to develop out there.


I remember a few years ago in June when we almost got a storm out there to be named Bret. Luckily it was still too early for anything to develop and it didn't
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#13 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:49 am

Should begin to develop once it nears 40W. Main inhibitor so far seems to be possible land interaction with SA in about 7 days.

12z GFS back to developing it now but keeps it weak because of land proximity.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#14 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:Should begin to develop once it nears 40W. Main inhibitor so far seems to be possible land interaction with SA in about 7 days.

12z GFS back to developing it now but keeps it weak because of land proximity.


The wave in front of it is now approaching 40W and it lost all of its convection. Nothing to indicate that anything different will happen as this wave moves west. Best shot at any development may be when it reaches the SW Caribbean around the beginning of July. Not great chances, though, and not strong. Should track west into Central America, developing or not.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#15 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:19 pm

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#16 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:22 pm

:sick:

coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the ECMWF gust map is right.

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Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#17 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:23 pm

SFLcane wrote::sick:

coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the gust map is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/fTzDCjLP/gust.jpg


Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC :D
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:31 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote::sick:

coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the gust map is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/fTzDCjLP/gust.jpg


Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC :D


The storm hits Hispaniola the Ultra-Shredder.
Therefore, it will never recover :D

/s
Last edited by Category5Kaiju on Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#19 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:43 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote::sick:

coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. Could be a reasonable track this year "IF" the gust map is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/fTzDCjLP/gust.jpg


Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC :D


The storm hits Hispaniola the Ultra-Shredder.
Therefore, it will never recover :D

Tell that to Elsa and Grace after running over the entire Greater Antilles
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SE of the Cabo Verde Islands

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:44 pm

aspen wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Good thing it's just Crazy Uncle CMC :D


The storm hits Hispaniola the Ultra-Shredder.
Therefore, it will never recover :D

Tell that to Elsa and Grace after running over the entire Greater Antilles


Oh yeah I know; I was just being sarcastic there as there have obviously been many examples of storms that survived that kind of path (but some in the wx community love the idea that Hispaniola is always a death sentence)
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