Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby zzh » Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:50 am

Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward in the north central
or northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#2 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:19 am

Might be a reference to this to which multiple models have been showing.
3 likes   

Wampadawg
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:28 am
Location: South Texas

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#3 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:58 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:Might be a reference to this to which multiple models have been showing.
https://imgur.com/OoQGnKq

Bring it! The ground around house looks like a raisin!
3 likes   
Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas

User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 565
Age: 32
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#4 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:25 am

Would be interesting to see something spin up quick noticed models hinting at this area while watching INVEST 94L runs, hopefully just a broad low to bring some needed moisture to the region!
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#5 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:35 am

Looks like it’ll be a close call as to which system gets the name Bonnie. Just about every model shows this system forming in about 4 days or so, but the CMC and ICON show 94L developing faster while the GFS and Euro are slower. If the CMC and ICON are right, then 94L will become Bonnie and this will become yet another short-lived and weak TS Colin.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#6 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:11 am

Lets see if ~48-60 hrs over the very warm GOM is enough time (which has happened before) to take advantage of fairly good UL conditions, per the GFS and CMC.
Not much support if any for development by the Euro and its ensembles.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#7 Postby wxman22 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:51 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#8 Postby SoupBone » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:09 am

I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#9 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:17 am

SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


So far a weak system is forecast. Probably some needed rain would be nice.
2 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#10 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:38 am

SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


Texas is in a severe drought. I will say though weak areas of low pressures are known to produce copious amounts of rain so worth watching given the history of floods in this part of the region. The water temperatures along the coast of Texas and Louisiana are exceptionally warm so that will enhance the rainfall even more. More modeling is needed to see what happens.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#11 Postby wxman22 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:46 am

SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


Not much buzz because the more reliable models just started picking up on TC development yesterday.It wont be till Monday until you start hearing more noise about the system.Assuming the model trends continue.
3 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#12 Postby SoupBone » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:02 am

wxman22 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


Not much buzz because the more reliable models just started picking up on TC development yesterday.It wont be till Monday until you start hearing more noise about the system.Assuming the model trends continue.


I get that, but for a system impacting on Tuesday/Wednesday? There should be more discussions than what's being had right now. But in other words, no Wxman57, no care I guess. :cold:
Last edited by SoupBone on Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

UTSARoadrunner4
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 163
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:19 pm

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#13 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:13 am

Looks like whatever this becomes will be a decent rain event for SE Texas, which is definitely needed. Would be pretty cool if this thing pulled an ‘07 Humberto.
3 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#14 Postby SoupBone » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:24 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Looks like whatever this becomes will be a decent rain event for SE Texas, which is definitely needed. Would be pretty cool if this thing pulled an ‘07 Humberto.


No doubt, we need the rain really bad. I'm rooting for a low with rain. Let's go!
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#15 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:22 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Looks like whatever this becomes will be a decent rain event for SE Texas, which is definitely needed. Would be pretty cool if this thing pulled an ‘07 Humberto.


No thank you. Humberto tore up my parents' fence and outdoor fans. I would rather take a weak tropical storm that dropped 5-10 inches of widespread rain.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:52 pm

2 PM.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would likely be slow
to occur as it drifts westward across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#17 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:44 pm

SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


The only concern we have is that it may not bring us as much rain as we need.
3 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#18 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


The only concern we have is that it may not bring us as much rain as we need.


If it can at least break the current dry pattern we're in, I'll be happy.
3 likes   

jabman98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2003 12:15 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#19 Postby jabman98 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:58 pm

SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.

Local TV weather in Houston showed it and talked about it on the news last night and this morning. I think they gave it about a 20% chance of development. So it's getting some mention but right now that's about it. Much more excitement about the potential of rain early next week.
0 likes   

hurricane2025
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 162
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am

Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#20 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:27 pm

Will be a rain maker that’s it
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 47 guests