Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#101 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:19 pm

SoupBone wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?


Well let's just say that this system will not be moving fast. After moving onshore Thursday, the Euro still shows it in Texas on Saturday. That's rather slow.


I completely get that, don’t misunderstand me. But when our other pro-Mets post a forecast, especially one with potentially catastrophic results, they back it up with a scientific explanation. They don’t just drop a bomb then walk away.

These next few model runs will hopefully provide some more consistency.


Speaking of which, the 18z GFS is stronger and further north than 12z.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#102 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:27 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Well let's just say that this system will not be moving fast. After moving onshore Thursday, the Euro still shows it in Texas on Saturday. That's rather slow.


I completely get that, don’t misunderstand me. But when our other pro-Mets post a forecast, especially one with potentially catastrophic results, they back it up with a scientific explanation. They don’t just drop a bomb then walk away.

These next few model runs will hopefully provide some more consistency.


Speaking of which, the 18z GFS is stronger and further north than 12z.


Yeah that run mostly misses Houston with the rain it looks like. Becomes a central Texas threat. Though I’m on my phone so it’s harder for me to zoom in.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#103 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:45 pm

NHC not buying it!
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#104 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:06 pm

Wampadawg wrote:NHC not buying it!


I really don't understand it. This system isn't going to be moving onshore until Thursday at the earliest. Conditions really aren't super unfavorable. If conditions aren't great, the NHC would have mentioned it in the TWO. I think a depression is pretty easily achievable. A TS is possible, but far less likely. I was looking back at the S2K archives, and I realized that the NHC didn't event tag the system that became Imelda until about 24 hours before landfall. So it wouldn't be the first time we had to wait a while for a tag.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#105 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:20 pm

00Z ICON still looking to have Texas BBQ but bringing their own sauce.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

#106 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:37 am

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