Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#41 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:10 pm

So when will this thing get tagged? Will it happen when chances bump up into the medium range? It would be nice to have more models running on the system, especially since it is moving over water now and will be over it for days.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#42 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:44 pm

Is the latest Euro trying to spin something up?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:50 pm

Wampadawg wrote:Is the latest Euro trying to spin something up?

Attempts to deepen it over land
Image

GFS
Image

These two runs IMO say its worthy of a tag shortly.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#44 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:20 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:Is the latest Euro trying to spin something up?

Attempts to deepen it over land
https://i.imgur.com/RtG1eFH.gif

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/K42TeVx.gif

These two runs IMO say its worthy of a tag shortly.


I'm wondering if the Euro is tightening the circulation due to land frictional forces?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#45 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:22 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:Is the latest Euro trying to spin something up?

Attempts to deepen it over land
https://i.imgur.com/RtG1eFH.gif

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/K42TeVx.gif

These two runs IMO say its worthy of a tag shortly.


I'm wondering if the Euro is tightening the circulation due to land frictional forces?

Maybe but it tends to do this for some reason. Regardless, its 850mb vort structure is could be enough for a TD/low grade TS.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#46 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:04 pm

12Z EURO Ensembles
Image

12Z GFS Ensembles
Image
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#47 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:26 pm

18z ICON let’s just say bullish on development
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#48 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:30 pm

18Z ICON

Image
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#49 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:43 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:18Z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/ngCuzP2.gif


Perhaps we see a % move ,we shall see
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#50 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:10 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:18Z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/ngCuzP2.gif


Perhaps we see a % move ,we shall see

Looks like the models are starting to get on the same page
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#51 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:23 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:18Z ICON

https://i.imgur.com/ngCuzP2.gif


Perhaps we see a % move ,we shall see

Looks like the models are starting to get on the same page
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#52 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:25 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:
Perhaps we see a % move ,we shall see

Looks like the models are starting to get on the same page

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_9.png
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#53 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:47 pm

Tail end of the cold front hasn't made it into the gulf yet, so we don't know exactly how far west it might form..
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#54 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:56 pm

18Z GFS continuing the trend of southwest motion and then slowing down and turning northeast.

Image
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#55 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:23 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:18Z GFS continuing the trend of southwest motion and then slowing down and turning northeast.

https://i.imgur.com/uiOdamG.gif

Bring the rain! Just bring it! We need it!
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#56 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:27 pm

00Z still has mad love for Houston lol
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#57 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:44 pm

Image
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#58 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:45 am

It's going to sound crazy but there's a chance that this system weakens the ridge enough that 94l in a hurricane form, lifts north and enters the GOM.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#59 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:17 am

Kingarabian wrote:It's going to sound crazy but there's a chance that this system weakens the ridge enough that 94l in a hurricane form, lifts north and enters the GOM.


That is what I was wondering, I saw the yellow which usually means a surface low developing within five days.
But 94L is still in the Caribbean when this lifts back north into Texas.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#60 Postby hurricane2025 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:44 am

Weak/tropical storm more than likely
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