Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#81 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:58 pm

Still at 20%.The only thing i can think of is maybe they want to see if the 12z euro holds? Since the 6z was the first fun from the euro to show TC genesis.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#82 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:59 pm

wxman22 wrote:Still at 20%.The only thing i can think of is maybe they want to see if the 12z euro holds? Since the 6z was the first fun from the euro to show TC genesis.

I would like to see an invest tag so we can have a quick look at the hurricane models such as the HWRF.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#83 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:Stays at 20%

Seeing I know jack about these things!I would be interested in what the folks with more knowledge think?Will it ,Won’t it, signed need. Rain!
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#84 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:19 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Stays at 20%

Seeing I know jack about these things!I would be interested in what the folks with more knowledge think?Will it ,Won’t it, signed need. Rain!



Well the latest Euro is back to a low pressure system, maybe a weak depression. This back and forth is probably why.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#85 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:30 pm

While the chance of development is still pretty low (around 30% imo), this looks to bring much needed rain to southeast Texas later this week. Houston has a pretty good chance to see a few inches. I would be surprised if this became more than a weak TS. But you can never say never in the tropics.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#86 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:32 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Stays at 20%

Seeing I know jack about these things!I would be interested in what the folks with more knowledge think?Will it ,Won’t it, signed need. Rain!



Well the latest Euro is back to a low pressure system, maybe a weak depression. This back and forth is probably why.


They might also be waiting on something to start forming. They may not raise chances until tomorrow if it starts organizing at this rate.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#87 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:36 pm

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#88 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:48 pm

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#89 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:58 pm

Wampadawg wrote:https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1541492374295064576?s=21&t=5fku2b6QInnlVyrGd22fgw


Levi seems to think everything is as it should be right now.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#90 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:24 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1541492374295064576?s=21&t=5fku2b6QInnlVyrGd22fgw


Levi seems to think everything is as it should be right now.


That may be true, but there still seems to be more support of something forming per models even if it is weak. Real-time trends say development is slow, but not necessarily unlikely. I think tomorrow morning we should have a better idea of what may happen.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#91 Postby zzh » Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:46 pm

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#92 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:00 pm


As I said I don’t know jack but want to learn what is this showing exactly?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#93 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:34 pm

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#94 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:46 pm



What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?

His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#95 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:07 pm

SoupBone wrote:


What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?

His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.


He seems to be implying that the Euro could be undershowing rainfall amounts. This is quite possible if a more organized system is able to develop. Imelda developed at the last minute and meandered around SE Texas. It seems like all of those events were generally unexpected.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#96 Postby hurricane2025 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:29 pm

SoupBone wrote:


What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?

His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.


Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#97 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:34 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:


What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?

His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.


Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain


Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#98 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:08 pm

SoupBone wrote:
hurricane2025 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?

His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.


Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain


Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?


Well let's just say that this system will not be moving fast. After moving onshore Thursday, the Euro still shows it in Texas on Saturday. That's rather slow.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#99 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?


JB is not known for his discretion..
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#100 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:16 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
hurricane2025 wrote:
Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain


Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?


Well let's just say that this system will not be moving fast. After moving onshore Thursday, the Euro still shows it in Texas on Saturday. That's rather slow.


I completely get that, don’t misunderstand me. But when our other pro-Mets post a forecast, especially one with potentially catastrophic results, they back it up with a scientific explanation. They don’t just drop a bomb then walk away.

These next few model runs will hopefully provide some more consistency. 18Z GFS plows through central Texas after landfall in the Corpus area. On my phone so I don’t see the pinpoint spot.
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