Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

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Wampadawg
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#21 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:32 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:Will be a rain maker that’s it

Works for me !
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#22 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:39 pm

I think it has a decent chance to become a weak tropical storm.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#23 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:13 pm

Whatever becomes of it, it still bears watching. Bear Watch will be on next week.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:48 pm

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the
southeastern United States across the Florida Peninsula to near the
northwestern Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system could occur as it drifts westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#25 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:58 pm

Not expecting much from this one but I could see this becoming a weak TS perhaps. Could be a race for Bonnie between this and 94L
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#26 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:45 pm

00Z ICON bringing it back to life this run
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:40 am

8 AM.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from
southeastern Louisiana across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
the southern part of the Florida peninsula is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to
be slow to occur as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#28 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:13 am

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#29 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:39 am

I think the NHC should raise this to 30% at the next update.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#30 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:45 am

So,Question this may be a sneaky storm most likely not.We shall see, but what was the most under forecasted storm this close to land in the Gulf,
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#31 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:46 am

Cpv17 wrote:I think the NHC should raise this to 30% at the next update.


At least. Personally, I would go 40% because I think something is going to try to develop. Whether or not it gets there is questionable, but nearly all models show something trying to spin-up at some point.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#32 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:47 am

Wampadawg wrote:So,Question this may be a sneaky storm most likely not.We shall see, but what was the most under forecasted storm this close to land in the Gulf,

Maybe Hannah from 2020.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#33 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:55 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I think the NHC should raise this to 30% at the next update.


At least. Personally, I would go 40% because I think something is going to try to develop. Whether or not it gets there is questionable, but nearly all models show something trying to spin-up at some point.

If it is raised to 40% that would get the local media chattering
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#34 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:02 pm

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#35 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:07 pm

Wampadawg wrote:https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1541071712581820416?s=21&t=s_AfTHgi37Ximow9afOeqg


Papin says here that the system has 2-4 days to organize over the GOM. That seems like plenty enough time to get a weak tropical storm, let alone a depression. I am guessing dry air must be something that is acting as an inhibitor for development because wind shear doesn't look too bad right now. Still, if dry air is the main issue, 20% seems really low given the amount of time over water it will have.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#36 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:08 pm

Wampadawg wrote:So,Question this may be a sneaky storm most likely not.We shall see, but what was the most under forecasted storm this close to land in the Gulf,

Imelda is definitely one. I remember the ICON was the only global model that consistently showed Imelda developing at the last minute right before landfall days before she developed.And NO model showed the catastrophic rainfall amounts that occurred.Though the HRRR did sniff out the training feeder band the day before it occurred.Also cant forget Humberto of 2007.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#37 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:14 pm

wxman22 wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:So,Question this may be a sneaky storm most likely not.We shall see, but what was the most under forecasted storm this close to land in the Gulf,

Imelda is definitely one. I remember the ICON was the only global model that consistently showed Imelda developing at the last minute right before landfall days before she developed.And NO model showed the catastrophic rainfall amounts that occurred.Though the HRRR did sniff out the training feeder band the day before it occurred.Also cant forget Humberto of 2007.


Yeah both those storms were unpleasant surprises for my area. That's also why I am curious why the chances are so low. These type of systems seem to get going the day before landfall.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#38 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:31 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
wxman22 wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:So,Question this may be a sneaky storm most likely not.We shall see, but what was the most under forecasted storm this close to land in the Gulf,

Imelda is definitely one. I remember the ICON was the only global model that consistently showed Imelda developing at the last minute right before landfall days before she developed.And NO model showed the catastrophic rainfall amounts that occurred.Though the HRRR did sniff out the training feeder band the day before it occurred.Also cant forget Humberto of 2007.


Yeah both those storms were unpleasant surprises for my area. That's also why I am curious why the chances are so low. These type of systems seem to get going the day before landfall.

i'm surprised no one is comparing this to Alicia in 1983! Almost same scenario. What are the big differences that would keep this from repeating history?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#39 Postby Zonacane » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:35 pm

wxman22 wrote:
Wampadawg wrote:So,Question this may be a sneaky storm most likely not.We shall see, but what was the most under forecasted storm this close to land in the Gulf,

Imelda is definitely one. I remember the ICON was the only global model that consistently showed Imelda developing at the last minute right before landfall days before she developed.And NO model showed the catastrophic rainfall amounts that occurred.Though the HRRR did sniff out the training feeder band the day before it occurred.Also cant forget Humberto of 2007.

It's the GoM during hurricane season, who knows.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:45 pm

2 PM.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur as it drifts westward to west-southwestward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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